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What No. 24 Boise State vs. Oregon State expert picks tell us to expect with College GameDay in town

Experts anticipate Boise State’s offense scoring early and often on The Blue

Boise State's Dylan Riley. | Photo courtesy of Boise State Athletics

No. 24 Boise State can secure home-field advantage for the Pac-12 championship game with a victory over Oregon State on Saturday. 

Kickoff between the Broncos (8-1, 5-0 Pac-12) and Beavers (5-4, 3-2) is slated for 4 p.m. Mountain time at Albertsons Stadium. ESPN’s College GameDay will be in town for the key Pac-12 matchup, which will air live nationally on USA Network. 

Boise State has won eight straight games since suffering a Week 1 loss at No. 16 Oregon. The Broncos are the favorite to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff.

The Beavers have dropped back-to-back games after ripping off five consecutive wins and will likely be without starting quarterback Braden Atkinson, the nation’s leading passer. 

In the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, the Broncos are favored by 14.5 points on The Blue. Boise State is -650 on the moneyline while Oregon State is +470. 

The over/under is set at 64.5 points. 

Can Boise State keep it rolling against a banged-up Oregon State team?

Here is a look at some predictions and picks from national media outlets heading into Saturday’s game.

Leger Douzable, CBS Sports: Over 64.5 points

Douzable’s rationale: “Both of these defenses have struggled mightily at times. … Whether it’s Maddux Madsen or (Max) Cutforth, they can really put up a lot of points.”

Analysis: Douzable is not wrong. Neither defense has performed well in recent games, and both offenses rank near the top of the Pac-12 in many categories. As of Thursday morning, Madsen seems much more likely to play than Atkinson. The Broncos have proven to be a strong offensive outfit with Cutforth, but Oregon State backup quarterback Maalik Murphy has played sparingly this year. 

Danny Kanell, CBS Sports: Boise State -13.5

Kanell’s rationale: “The problem with Oregon State, I think, is that they’re so much fun to watch, they throw the ball all over the yard, but they’re a little bit too one-dimensional. They’re not even concerned with the run game. And when you have that, it becomes a little bit easier to stop.”

Analysis: The Beavers have faced more three-man rushes with eight players in coverage during the last two games, and that strategy has largely worked. Boise State is also the Pac-12’s rushing defense, which should make life even harder on the Beavers. 

Dant’s rationale: “I will lay the (points) with the Broncos, but this is a fun matchup.”

Analysis: Dant pointed out the obvious: Boise State is rolling right now while Oregon State appears to have peaked in October. The Beavers are still a dangerous team with star receiver Jesse Legree, but Dant does not foresee a close game on The Blue.

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