The current Big 12 picture has a clear leader (Utah), another team that controls its destiny for the conference championship game (Texas Tech) and then multiple teams within a game of second place.

It’s a lot like the ACC, which has Miami a full game in front, Wake Forest one game behind and then four teams one game back of the Demon Deacons.

These two conferences are battling for the College Football Playoff berths left over after the SEC takes its bite out of the 12-team bracket. With the Big Ten stumbling over itself to the finish line of the regular season, the Big 12 could take advantage of an opening to get two teams into the field for the first time.

Whether the Big 12 can make conference history depends on how things shake out over the final three weeks of November. Based on how things look heading into Week 11, these tiebreaker scenarios will determine which teams play for the conference championship:

Big 12 football tiebreaker scenarios

Utah can basically lock down a trip to the championship game with a win Saturday against Arizona. If so, the Utes would be 7-0 in league play with TCU and West Virginia to come and with wins against BYU, Houston and the Wildcats in hand.

Texas Tech faces a big test this weekend against Oklahoma State. With Baylor and TCU to end November, the Red Raiders would be in very strong position to return to the Big 12 championship game for the second year in a row.

In addition to winning out, BYU would need a Texas Tech loss and a Houston loss. While the Cougars would edge ahead of Tech by the tiebreaker of conference opponent winning percentage, the Cougars hold the edge in that category as of Week 11 (50.6% to the Cougars’ 48.2%). Handing the Cougars a third loss clears them out of the way.

All Houston really needs is to win out against Colorado, West Virginia and Baylor while Utah beats Oklahoma State and the Red Raiders lose once. In the case of a three-way tie at 7-2 in the league with BYU and Tech, the Cougars would advance because of a better record against common conference opponents.

The odds of reaching the championship game decline dramatically for Arizona, Baylor and Oklahoma State. The Wildcats lose the tiebreaker with virtually every other contender and would need to win out while everyone else loses once or, in the case of Texas Tech, twice; the Red Raiders own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Basically, Arizona needs to be alone at 7-2 in second place to face Utah.

Baylor still plays BYU, Texas Tech and Houston. That gives the Bears the chance to earn some crucial tiebreakers against teams currently higher in the standings. If they win out, Utah also wins out and Texas Tech also loses to Oklahoma State, the Bears would be tied with Oklahoma State and advance thanks to a better record against common conference opponents.

That leaves Oklahoma State with a narrower path to the top two. The first thing the Cowboys would need is to win out while Houston loses once, removing the Cougars’ head-to-head win as a tiebreaker.

They’d also need BYU, Arizona and Baylor to lose once. That would leave Oklahoma State and Texas Tech as the two teams tied for second at 7-2 in the Big 12, and the Cowboys would get the nod because of their win against the Red Raiders.