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Penn State’s offense has a clear advantage over Purdue’s defense
Oct 17, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA;  Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell looks on in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Penn State’s offense has been problematic in the last four games. It is averaging only 18.5 points per game, and the unit is turning the ball over at an unsustainable rate if the team ever wants to turn the season around.

Luckily for the Nittany Lions, they get the perfect antidote for a struggling offense in the Purdue Boilermakers. Not only do they have one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten, but they are near the bottom of all Power 4 schools in most major categories.

Penn State struggles to score, and Purdue struggles to stop anyone, so let’s see which one of those trends break this week.

Third-down conversion rate

The Nittany Lions have struggled converting on third downs all year long. The lack of a running game doesn’t help, as the team is constantly having to work its way out of third-and-long situations.

But Purdue is a bottom-ten third-down defense in the entire nation, so Penn State shouldn’t have as much trouble this week. If it still can’t get conversions, then that says more about how much the unit has fallen off.

Red zone conversion rate

Oct 17, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA;  Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) looks to pass in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

As frustrating as Penn State’s red-zone offense has been this season, it is only middle of the pack nationally. The team scores on more than 85% of its red-zone tripe, but it just isn’t scoring touchdowns at a high enough clip.

However, Purdue hardly ever stops anyone in the red zone. The Nittany Lions should be able to punch the ball in a couple of times and get themselves on track.

Points per game

Penn State offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser answers questions during football media day in Holuba Hall, Friday, August 7, 2026, in State College.

Penn State played a porous USC defense a few weeks ago and had its best offensive showing in weeks. Hopefully it will be the same story against a Boilermakers defense that is even worse than that.

They give up 32.3 points per game and surrender more than 400 yards per game. It will be concerning if the Nittany Lions aren’t able to move the ball and score at will.

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