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It was a bad week to be an underdog in the NFL. Over the course of the Week 9 slate, favorites went 14-1 straight-up, with the lone upset coming from the Packers as they took down the Patriots in Foxborough.
Naturally, with favorites dominating the day, it wasn't a banner showing from us in last week's column. That said, we did correctly pinpoint New England as a prime upset candidate to Green Bay, so we'll take the win when we can get it.
With favorites finding so much success last week, however, it should heighten their concern heading into Week 10, as the pendulum could swing in the other direction to even things up. And there are several games to choose from this weekend for potential upsets, including a "Sunday Night Football" showdown between two AFC North rivals. So, let's get right to it and identify five favorites who are on upset alert.
All lines via DraftKings; All times ET
The last time these two NFC East rivals faced one another, it was a calamity that resulted in a 27-27 tie. That said, I do think Washington is catching New York at the right time in this Thursday night matchup to begin Week 10.
Giants starter J.J. McCarthy was in and out of the lineup last week after suffering a hip pointer injury against the Eagles, but is expected to play in this game. Before going down, McCarthy seemed more like his Minnesota self than the quarterback who completed 20-of-28 in a win over the Texans before their bye. McCarthy threw for 127 yards on 12-of-19 passing in the win over Philly, with his yards per attempt (6.7) taking a noticeable dip from his first two appearances. He also took five sacks.
If that continues on Thursday against a Commanders defense that is allowing just 15.0 points per game over the past two games, Washington's offense may not have to do too much heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels has largely had success against New York, coming into this game with a 3-0-1 record against his division foe. He's also totaled five touchdowns and zero turnovers in those games. Daniels has largely protected the ball this season as well and has yet to throw an interception.
So, the recipe for Washington here is for Daniels to keep a clean sheet in the turnover margin, and for McCarthy to come back down to earth.
Maybe a trip across the Atlantic snaps the Patriots back into form after an abysmal loss to the Packers at home in Week 9. One of the biggest issues for New England's offense this season has been turnovers, committing one on 19.4% of drives. While that's hardly going to instill much confidence in anyone backing the Patriots in Week 10, it is worth noting that Detroit hasn't exactly been known to create turnovers on defense. Entering this international game in Germany, the Lions have eight turnovers this season, which is tied for the fourth-fewest in the NFL. When you compare that to Green Bay's 19 total turnovers (second-best), the Patriots should get some reprieve in that department.
Meanwhile, Jared Goff hasn't looked as lights-out as he did over the first five games of the season when he was an early MVP candidate. Even amid this winning streak, Goff's numbers have dipped.
| Jared Goff this season | First 5 games | Past 3 games |
|---|---|---|
Passing YPG |
297.0 |
216.3 |
TD-INT |
12-0 |
3-2 |
Passer rating |
111.3 |
95.0 |
He's still playing at a high level, but it's not otherworldly, which could help New England's defense -- particularly the secondary -- put together a bounce-back performance.
Minnesota has the disadvantage of being on the road against a division rival and being on a short week after playing on Monday night, but they do get a huge boost on offense for this game. Before Tuesday's trade deadline, the Vikings pulled off a trade to acquire Kirk Cousins from the Raiders, which should elevate the offense to a more respectable level.
Coming into the week and pre-Cousins, Minnesota ranks 31st in passing yards per game (160.8) and is tied with the winless Chargers for the fewest offensive touchdowns (11) in the NFL this season. Despite all that, they're 6-2, which is thanks to their top-flight defense. Now that they have an offense that can not only complement them, but sustain drives to give them more rest on the sideline, Minnesota should be taken more seriously.
The defense will have its hands full against Green Bay's prolific passing attack, but they do have the personnel to contain them. That's especially true in the aftermath of Josh Jacobs (broken finger) being ruled out for this game, further limiting an already anemic ground game.
The Packers have also struggled in this spot. The club is 1-5 in its past six games against division opponents (including playoffs) and are 1-8 in its last nine games against teams entering the matchup four or more games over .500.
With the shot in the arm on offense with Cousins' arrival, the Vikings are live at Lambeau.
Carolina is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, which has brought Bryce Young's play into focus. Over the last three games, the Panthers quarterback has averaged 216 passing yards per game, has five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. While that's not great, context is key. Young and the Panthers have squared off against the Buccaneers, Packers (road), and Broncos during the skid, all of which are among the top defenses in the league right now. New Orleans is not that.
The Saints secondary has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt so far this season (tied for the fifth-highest in the league) along with a 99.5 passer rating allowed (seventh-highest). Meanwhile, Young was solid last week, albeit in defeat. He completed 71.7% of his throws for 276 yards, three touchdowns and a pick. That output should hold up against a weaker defense in New Orleans and should help propel them to snap the losing streak.
That's especially true considering the Saints haven't been a strong team at home so far in 2026. At the Superdome, they are 1-4 and have yet to cover (0-5 ATS).
Whoever constructed the schedule this year did the Bengals dirty for this Week 10 matchup. Not only are they returning from an international game in Madrid last week, but they are hosting a Steelers club that was on the bye in Week 9. That's a massive rest disadvantage for Cincinnati, which could rear its head in this matchup.
So far, Joe Burrow has been the talk of the NFL as he's leaped to the top of the MVP conversation after a sensational run over the Bengals' four-game winning streak. He has the offense averaging over 35 points per game and has 18 total touchdowns with a 132.0 passer rating. While those are video-game-like numbers, the competition he's been slicing up hasn't exactly been the Legion of Boom. Over the streak, Cincinnati has beaten up on the Dolphins, Ravens (no Lamar Jackson), Titans and Falcons.
The Steelers pose a much tougher challenge, especially on defense. Pittsburgh is tied for the fifth-lowest yards per play average (5.0), tied for the fourth-lowest points per game allowed (18.0), and tied for the eighth-lowest passer rating allowed (83.3).
Since 2020, the Steelers have also won and covered in each of their six games coming off the bye.
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