CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 28: (L-R) Evan Mobley #4, Donovan Mitchell #45, James Harden #1 and Jarrett Allen #31 of the Cleveland Cavaliers laugh during Cleveland Cavaliers Media Day at Rocket Arena on September 28, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

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In mid-October, ESPN’s Zach Kram published his latest NBA Now or Later rankings, which gauge the teams that are under the most pressure to win right away. The rankings are based on how much money each team has tied up moving forward and their future first-round picks (or lack thereof).

The Phoenix Suns led the way, as they’ve traded away four fully unprotected first-round picks over the next seven years and have given up swap rights in 2028 and 2030 as well. But the Cleveland Cavaliers were right behind them at No. 2 overall in ESPN’s rankings.

The Cavs aren’t as overleveraged as the Suns in terms of future draft capital. They already owe their fully unprotected 2027, 2029 and 2031 first-round picks to other teams, and they’ve given up swap rights in 2028 as well. But for now, they have full control over their 2030, 2032 and 2033 first-rounders, whereas Phoenix only has control over its 2032 pick.

What the Cavs don’t have is financial flexibility moving forward.

The Suns have Devin Booker locked up on a 35% max contract, but they don’t have any massive long-term commitments beyond that. The Cavaliers can’t say the same. They just signed Donovan Mitchell to a 35% max deal, have Evan Mobley entering the second year of a 30% max and signed James Harden to a three-year, $96.5 million contract and added Peyton Watson on a four-year, $88 million deal via sign-and-trade this offseason.

Throw in Jarrett Allen, who’s beginning a three-year, $90.7 million contract this season, and the Cavaliers have five players earning at least $20 million, three earning at least $30 million and two earning $50.1 million each. Next year, Mobley and Mitchell are projected to earn roughly $115 million combined, while Harden and Allen account for another $62.4 million. That quartet alone will push the Cavs over the 2027-28 salary cap, which is currently projected to land at $176 million.

That’s setting this up to be a make-or-break season for the Cavaliers. If they fall short of the NBA Finals yet again, they may find it financially unsustainable to keep this core together moving forward.

Can This Cavs Core Break Through?

Eight games into the 2026-27 season, the Cavs have already shown a few red flags.

In their season opener, they jumped out to a 29-point first-half lead over the Philadelphia 76ers and still managed to lose. They also lost a pair of games to the injury-ravaged Oklahoma City Thunder in early November even though OKC was without starters Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren in both games.

The Sixers are a league-best 8-1 in the early going, and the Thunder are 6-2 despite their avalanche of injuries. Early-season losses to what might be two of the best teams in the NBA are hardly reason for Cleveland to panic. But the Cavs also began this season as a title hopeful, so those games are useful measuring sticks to gauge how close they are to accomplishing that goal, especially considering how they finished last season.

The Cavaliers made the Eastern Conference Finals last year for the first time since LeBron James left them to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2018. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they blew a 22-point fourth-quarter lead against the New York Knicks in Game 1 of the conference finals and then proceeded to get swept. Making matters worse, head coach Kenny Atkinson was left to cite how the Cavs were “analytically” winning the series in terms of “expected wins” based on shot location and difficulty.

The Cavs have a rematch against the Sixers on Friday, then face the Knicks on Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back. They’re headed to New York on Nov. 11 and Nov. 25 for two more games against the Knicks, so they have plenty of upcoming litmus tests.

But even if they fail those tests, they don’t have much room to maneuver.

Cavs May Fall Victim To NBA’s Apron Era

The Cavs are hard-capped at the $209.0 million first apron this season because they acquired Watson via sign-and-trade. They cannot exceed that salary threshold under any circumstance between now and June 30. They’re currently only $45,045 below that line, which leaves them with almost no financial flexibility unless they dump salary.

The Cavs have all of their key pieces signed at least through 2027-28, which means they might have a two-year window before they need to start considering wholesale changes. With that said, they’re already projected to be $740,000 over the first apron next season despite having only 10 players under contract beyond this year. Even if they filled out their roster with minimum contracts, they’d be dangerously close to crossing into the second apron.

If the Cavs go on another deep playoff run, perhaps team governor Dan Gilbert will be able to justify that type of outlay. But if they aren’t able to return to the conference finals, he might question whether it’s worth spending that type of money on this core.

The Cavs likely view Mitchell and Mobley as their two most untouchable players, which leaves Harden, Watson and Allen as the biggest potential dominoes that could fall.

Harden has begun the season shooting only 37.9% from the floor and has long been a defensive sieve. Given his age and the size of his remaining contract, it’s unclear how much the Cavaliers would be able to get in return for him. Allen and Watson’s contracts might also deter teams from offering up a haul for them, particularly with Watson averaging only 10.8 points per game on 37.1% shooting overall and 16.7% from deep in the early going.

Again, it’s premature to have blow-it-up conversations about the Cavs for now. If they knock off the Sixers and/or Knicks in the coming days, that would suggest they can at least hang with the East powerhouses. But if they keep coming up short, they don’t have a long runway financially to sustain this core as is.