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3 reasons why Alabama will defeat Texas A&M, 1 why not

Alabama (5-2 overall, 3-2 SEC) is looking to get back on track and snap their two-game losing streak as they host Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3 SEC) in a must-win game Saturday afternoon for the Tide.

Not sure anyone had these two teams having a combined five losses by the time they matched up coming into the season. Nevertheless, here we are. Last week was a very forgettable one for Alabama as they fell 26-10 to Tennessee in a game that arguably was not that close. However, Alabama has the talent to turn things around quickly.

With that being said, here are three reasons why Alabama will beat Texas A&M and one reason they will not.

Why: Defense forces turnovers

Oct 10, 2026; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Bray Hubbard (18) celebrates his interception during the second quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Leong-Imagn Images

An area where Alabama has an opportunity to make some plays defensively is by forcing turnovers, especially interceptions. In their three SEC losses this season, Texas A&M has turned it over two times each game. In total this season, Marcel Reed has thrown six interceptions in seven games.

After being +5 in turnover margin in their first two games, Texas A&M is -3 in their five games since. In seven games against ranked teams dating back to the start of last season, the Aggies have committed 13 turnovers, with 11 of those being interceptions. This game is an opportunity for someone like Bray Hubbard to come up with a big takeaway.

Why: Pass rush gets home

Sep 26, 2026; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA;  Alabama defensive back Bray Hubbard (18) and Alabama linebacker Yhonzae Pierre (0) stop a run by South Carolina running back Matt Fuller (28) at Saban Field at Bryant Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News

Another area where A&M has struggled recently is allowing sacks. In their recent losses to Missouri and LSU, the two groups of Tigers combined for seven sacks in those two games. In their last three games against ranked teams dating back to the CFP first round last season, Texas A&M has allowed a whopping 14 sacks.

This game is an opportunity for the likes of Yhonzae Pierre and Devan Thompkins to make an impact in the pass rush, although the pass rush will have to be disciplined to not allow Marcel Reed to get free with his legs.

Why: Big day from Lotzeir Brooks

While the Aggies defense has been solid overall this season, so far they have been allowing big days to the other team's lead receiver. A couple weeks ago against LSU, Jackson Harris went for six catches, 163 yards, and two touchdowns and Winston Watkins Jr. also had a big day with five catches for 107 yards for LSU. Then, the following week against Arkansas, Chris Marshall had seven catches for 76 yards and a touchdown against A&M. Two weeks ago against Missouri, Mizzou's Cayden Lee had seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown for the Tigers.

Overall, the Aggies' pass defense is strong, but there are plays to be made for the opposing team's top receivers. If healthy, this would have been a prime spot for Ryan Coleman-Williams to have a big day, but Lotzeir Brooks is plenty capable.

Why Not: Texas A&M third down defense

Texas A&M has one of the best third down defenses in the country. For the season, the Aggies defense ranks No. 11 nationally in third down defense allowing just a 29.8% conversion rate. They have been good in their biggest games too. In the five games A&M has played against Power Four competition, they have allowed conversions on just 19-of-59 3rd downs (32.2%).

Meanwhile, Alabama is coming off a poor third down effort offensively in the loss to Tennessee in which they converted on just 2-of-13 third downs. Third downs will be massive in this game, and Alabama has to figure out a way to stay on the field.

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