The 2026 starting rotation for the Royals had plenty of issues from injuries ending the seasons of Cole Ragans, Stephen Kolek, Ryan Bergert, Luinder Avila, and Alec Marsh to underperformances from Seth Lugo, Ragans (before the injury), and Daniel Lynch when he switched to starter late in 2026. The subject for today is the pitcher who pitched the full season in Seth Lugo as he put together his worst season as a Royal.

In 2026, Lugo amassed an ERA of 5.17, 7.00 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, and pitched 172.1 innings, which is his second-most innings of work in his career. Lugo struggled in 2026 and his multitude of pitches was not able to shine like it did in 2024. Let's dive into his struggles.

Nothing was Effective in Lugo's Arsenal

Seth Lugo's calling card as a Royal has been his ability to throw 8+ variations of pitches to help keep batters off balance. The issue is that batters instead teed off on a majority of his offerings. Looking at his run value chart, Lugo had three pitches with a positive value, all three being a value of one, his sinker, cutter, and changeup.

Even for his sinker and cutter, they also got hit a ton (.290 and .288 opposing batting averages). What makes it even worse for Lugo is that his breaking balls, aka his bread and butter, and 4-seam fastball were atrocious in 2026. His worst overall pitch was the 4-seam with a -13 run value, as it got hit at a .418 average and slugged at a .692 clip. The breaking balls also got smacked around and none of them generated a lot of whiffs.

With his arsenal not being effective, his style of pitching also doesn't really work. He is mainly a pitch-to-contact pitcher who limits walks and gets an average number of Ks. When the stuff isn't there, however, it gets hit a ton and gets hit for power, and since he throws a lot of strikes (51.9% zone rate) he is the perfect candidate for any batter to hit off of. Batters even began to take advantage of one of Lugo's biggest strengths, his first pitch strike rate of 64.6%.

Combine all of those numbers, and you get a pitcher giving up a lot of contact and not being able to work deep into games. In 2026, Lugo only had 14 quality starts, which, combined with how bad the Royals bullpen was in 2026, wasn't an ideal scenario in most games.

Now, despite the fact that Lugo didn't do many things well for the Royals, some numbers indicate he could have gotten a little unlucky in 2026. For one, his FIP sat at 4.38, and his BABIP was .333. If his ERA was closer to his FIP, maybe we don't make as big a deal of this, but that isn't what happened. If we look at the expected numbers, they are more in line with Lugo's final results.

The 2026 season was bad for Lugo, but it was also bad for the Royals in hindsight (it is 20/20) since they gave him an extension in 2025 through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028.

Lugo's Contract is Quickly Becoming a Terrible One for Royals

Seth Lugo will be getting paid $21.5 million in 2027, and that is concerning for a pitcher who has quickly declined from his second-place Cy Young finish in 2024. While it won't be the worst Royals contract for a starting pitcher- see Gil Meche, Ian Kennedy, or Jason Hammel- Lugo's contract will hamper what the Royals can do in the offseason.

2027 is an important season for Lugo because it is a contract/option year. He really needs to show that he can be effective to earn another chance with either the Royals or another team. If he stays healthy, at a minimum, he will eat innings, which is fine, but paying $21.5 million for another Jordan Lyles-esque pitcher will be another blunder by the front office.

Conclusion

The 2024 offseason saw the Royals bring in two veteran starters, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha and in 2026, the two could not be more polarizing in results. Wacha has been one of the best free agent signings in Royals history, while Lugo is slowly etching himself into being one of the worst free agent signings (for the 2025 extension specifically). In 2027, he will undoubtedly retain a spot in the rotation, but if he continues regressing, it will hurt the Royals in two ways.