Champions League, World Cup, individual statistics: the six leading candidates for the 2026 Ballon d’Or, including Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe, all have strong arguments. But none has a flawless record.

Between missed opportunities, absent trophies and disappointing performances in decisive moments, whatever the verdict tonight at the Ballon d’Or ceremony on Monday 26 October, the jury’s choice will be open to criticism. Let us go through the favourites one by one.

Harry Kane: exceptional statistics, but lacking weight in the final stretch

With 73 goals and eight assists in 2025-26, Kane has the most impressive statistical record of the six candidates and is logically among the favourites.

German champion, German Cup winner and Super Cup winner, the Englishman also scored in every Champions League match against Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain.

But his European run ended in the semi-finals, without lifting the trophy. Above all, despite six goals in seven matches for England, his influence diminished as the stakes rose at the World Cup, notably from the quarter-finals. At 33, can the Bayern Munich striker be crowned without having won either of the year’s two major competitions?

Kylian Mbappe: a historic World Cup to mask a trophyless season

Ten goals and four assists in eight matches: Mbappe delivered an exceptional World Cup, becoming the competition’s all-time top scorer. With 58 goals and 13 assists over the whole season, he also finished top of the scoring charts in La Liga and the Champions League.

But his collective record is far less flattering: no trophy with Real Madrid.

Real Madrid fell short in the major competitions, with their captain unable to turn the tide, notably in the Champions League. The same applies with France at the World Cup against Spain. Can the Ballon d’Or reward such a decisive individual when his club and his national team both ended the year without a trophy?

Lamine Yamal: a world champion who lacked standout moments

World champion, Spanish champion and Spanish Super Cup winner, Yamal has everything needed to become the youngest winner in Ballon d’Or history at 19. His 25 goals and 20 assists for Barcelona show a high-level season.

But his European run leaves a sense of something unfinished, with elimination in the Champions League quarter-finals by Atletico Madrid, where he did not weigh in enough.

His World Cup also raises questions: only one goal in eight matches, despite being Spain’s main attacking weapon, is not many. Is his talent enough to offset those flaws?

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: can the Champions League wipe everything out?

With 24 goals and 10 assists, Kvaratskhelia made his mark by helping Paris Saint-Germain win another Champions League title.

Decisive in the last eight matches of the competition, the Georgian was undoubtedly the best player of that edition. He also won the French league title and several international trophies with Paris.

His candidacy faces a major obstacle, however: he did not take part in the World Cup, as Georgia failed to qualify. There is a precedent, that of Kevin Keegan, crowned in 1978 without playing in the World Cup that year. But Kvaratskhelia will need to convince the Ballon d’Or jury that his European campaign is enough to make up for that absence.

Michael Olise: crazy statistics, but missing in the big moments

With 27 goals and 35 assists for his club, Olise produced a remarkable season statistically. His seven assists in eight matches at the World Cup are also a record for a single edition, ahead of Pele.

But that flattering record does not tell the whole story: the Bayern Munich winger missed his most important appointment in the Champions League, the semi-final second leg against Paris Saint-Germain, before finishing the World Cup on a disappointing note. His influence waned when France needed him most against Morocco and Spain.

German champion, German Cup winner and German Super Cup winner, he has an honourable list of honours, but his absences in decisive moments could cost him dearly.

Ousmane Dembele: the holder lost points at the World Cup

Dembele has one weighty argument: his decisive role in Paris Saint-Germain’s victorious Champions League run. His double against Liverpool in the quarter-finals, his three goals against Bayern Munich in the semi-finals and his penalty in the final helped swing the biggest matches.

But the holder left more doubts with France. His six goals and two assists at the World Cup are honourable, except that a hat-trick against Norway B accounts for half of his goal tally.

Beyond the numbers, he appeared less influential than Mbappe and Olise in the French attack and, like his team-mates, could do nothing against Spain. A second Ballon d’Or in a row therefore looks far from certain.