We’re coming up on the halfway point of the NFL season, and Super Bowl prices are beginning to solidify who the real contenders are. The handful of teams at the top of the board are the same on Kalshi’s Super Bowl markets as they are on Polymarket’s. However, the prices between them are varying. Depending on who you want to back, you should use the appropriate market.

The San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills are the top two teams in that order on both sites. Where things start to differ comes after that, with the Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs, and Seattle Seahawks rounding out the top-5 on Kalshi in that order. Polymarket’s Super Bowl market has them coming in with the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Bears.

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Profit differences at a $10 trade

Comparing prices between Kalshi and Polymarket shows which site offers more value on the same trade. Starting at the top with the 49ers, Kalshi lists them at 16% while Polymarket has them at 14%. The same $10 trade profits $52.86 on Kalshi and $58.61 on Polymarket. Nearly a $6 difference in favor of Polymarket.

The margin for the Bills price is wider, with Kalshi profiting $57.35 and Polymarket $64.92, nearly an $8 profit advantage on Polymarket.

Kalshi lists the Bears, Chiefs, and Seahawks all at 9%, so a $10 trade returns $94.44 on each. On Polymarket, the Chiefs profit is $86.34, while the Seahawks net $98.08, and the Bears net $116.27. Kansas City has the advantage on Kalshi, while Chicago and Seattle offer a higher profit on Polymarket.

How the numbers compare

In the standings, the 49ers and Bills prices align with their 6-1 records. Buffalo leads the league in offense at 33.3 points per game, while San Francisco has both a top-10 offense and defense. 

Kansas City and Chicago are one game back at 5-2. Like the 49ers, both the Chiefs and Bears are top-10 in points scored and allowed. The Seahawks have the worst record of the field at 4-3, but pace in defense at 17.9 points allowed while the offense sits just outside of the top-10.

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