Lamar Jackson's return against the Buffalo Bills from a three-game absence after a high ankle sprain was very short-lived --  one offensive play, to be exact. 

The Baltimore Ravens quarterback injured his thumb in Sunday's 36-10 loss to the Bills when his right hand hit edge rusher Greg Rousseau on the follow-through of a pass attempt. Jackson is out indefinitely after being placed on injured reserve as his right thumb requires surgery.

The potential season-ending thumb injury raises questions about Jackson's future in Baltimore. Jackson is in the fourth year of a five-year deal that made him the NFL's highest-paid player at the time, with $52 million per year after being designated as a non-exclusive franchise player. During the 2027 contract year, Jackson is scheduled to earn an unsecured $52 million, consisting of a $51.25 million base salary and a $750,000 workout bonus. His salary cap number is $84.34 million. 

More importantly, Jackson's contract contains a no-trade clause and another provision preventing the Ravens from designating him as a franchise or transition player when his contract expires following the 2027 season.

The $84.34 million cap hit is untenable. It is 2027's second-highest number behind Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes' $90.35 million, which will surely be lowered through a contract restructure. The Ravens have an NFL-high $366.74 million in 2027 cap commitments with 45 players under contract and a little less than $1.4 million in existing 2026 cap space that can be carried over to the 2027 league year, according to NFLPA data. The salary cap for 2027 should be between $322.5 million and $327.5 million, considering comparable growth after a 7.88% increase between 2025 and 2026.

So, where does Jackson's contract currently stand, and what could be ahead? Let's take a look.

Jackson holds most of the leverage right now

Jackson seemingly controls his own destiny because of his contract situation. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti wanted to extend Jackson's contract prior to the start of the 2026 league year in March. There are reports that Jackson, who represents himself and has never had an agent, was the hold-up. 

Instead, with a deal not done, the Ravens resorted to the backup plan. Jackson's contract was restructured to create $39.96 million of much-needed 2026 cap room, with a dummy/voiding 2030 contract year added for bonus proration purposes.

Jackson still has significant negotiating leverage if he wants a new deal, thanks to those clauses in his contract and the exorbitant 2027 cap number, despite durability concerns. He's had various injuries throughout 2025 and 2026, including those affecting his hamstring, ankle, toe, knee, back, and thumb. Assuming Jackson is done for the year, he will have only appeared in 18 of a possible 34 regular season games over these two seasons. In the prior two seasons (2023 and 2024), Jackson only missed one game.

Will injuries affect Jackson's negotiations?

The thumb injury is a freak accident. Jackson seems poised for a big 2026 season in new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle's system before the ankle injury. In the four games Jackson played prior to initially getting hurt, he completed 70.8% of his passes (68 of 96 attempts) for 967 yards with six touchdowns and one interception to post a 119.6 passer rating. He added 144 yards on the ground in 19 carries with one touchdown. 

The completion percentage is a career high, while the passer rating matches his season best from 2024. He was also on pace for career highs in yards per pass attempt (10.1) and yards per completion (14.2). The Ravens were tied for first in the AFC North with a 3-1 record.

The lack of availability in recent years could give the Ravens some reservations about signing Jackson, who turns 30 in January, to another market-setting deal. However, none of the two-time NFL MVP's injuries can be considered career-threatening. 

The Chiefs didn't have any qualms about reworking Mahomes' contract in June to make him the NFL's highest-paid player even though he was coming off a more serious injury (torn ACL and LCL in his left knee) than any Jackson has ever had. Mahomes also set career lows with a 62.7% completion percentage and 89.6 passer rating, which ranked 23rd in the NFL, during the 2025 season. Plus, the Chiefs had a losing record at 6-11 for the first time since 2012. 

By adding two new years, Mahomes is under contract through 2033 for eight years, totaling $504.75 million (average $63.1 million per year). Let's look at some details of his contract for comparison:

• Mahomes' deal is worth up to $522.25 million, including base salary escalators and incentives. 
• The deal includes $237 million in conventional guarantees, which is the cash in the first four contract years. 
• Out of this $237 million, $150 million is fully guaranteed at signing. 
• The $150 million fully guaranteed is the second most ever in an NFL contract. 

Mahomes' $63.1 million AAV raised the bar for quarterback salaries. It was a 5.16% increase over the four-year, $240 million contract extension (averaging $60 million per year) Dak Prescott received from the Dallas Cowboys in 2024.

Could Jackson be open to a trade?

Jackson's reported unwillingness to have serious contract discussions during the offseason has led to speculation that he may not want to stay in Baltimore. Trading Jackson has its own set of issues. The Ravens can't move Jackson without his consent because of the no-trade clause. 

Typically, trades for a starting quarterback occur before the NFL Draft, which is April 29 through May 1 in 2027. With a trade on this timeline, the Ravens would have $74.81 million of dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team's roster. That's because of the salary conversion that took place earlier this year and because Jackson's contract was structured with two prorated option bonuses. 

That's only a $9.53 million cap savings from Jackson's 2027 cap hit. The record for dead money related to an individual player in one league year is quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's $55.4 million, due to the Miami Dolphins releasing him with a post-June 1 designation in March 2026.

Jackson's hypothetical $74.81 million in dead money would consist of:

• $14.35 million prorated in 2027 from Jackson's signing bonus
• $7 million prorated from the first option bonus in 2024 relating to his 2027 contract year and dummy/voiding 2028 contract year
• $13.5 million prorated from the second option bonus in 2025 relating to his 2027 contract year, as well as dummy/voiding 2028 and 2029 contract years
• $39.96 million prorated from the contract restructure signing bonus in 2026 relating to his 2027 contract year and three dummy/voiding contract years running from 2028 through 2030

In this situation, Jackson would be off Baltimore's books beginning in 2028. 

The optimal time for the Ravens to trade Jackson, salary cap-wise, is after June 1. By waiting until June 2, the bonus proration from Jackson's three dummy/voiding contract years wouldn't accelerate onto Baltimore's 2027 salary cap. It would be a 2028 cap charge. The $74.81 million would be split into $32.34 million of 2027 dead money and $42.47 million of 2028 dead money, meaning the Ravens pick up $52 million of 2027 cap space in the process.

There are two big drawbacks to a delayed trade. The Ravens would have to perform some salary cap gymnastics to carry Jackson's $84.34 million cap number until June. The acquiring team would want a much earlier timetable for a trade so Jackson could have as much time as possible to get acclimated to a new offense and develop chemistry with his wide receivers.

Jackson's value in any potential trade

The no-trade clause needing to be waived could impact Baltimore's return in exchange for Jackson. This dynamic will make it harder for the Ravens to leverage interest from teams into a haul comparable to the one the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks received for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson, respectively, in 2022. That would especially be the case if Jackson, a South Florida native, had a specific destination in mind, such as the Dolphins.

Watson and a 2024 sixth-round pick were dealt to the Cleveland Browns for: 

• 2022, 2023, and 2024 first-round picks
• 2022 fourth-round pick
• 2023 third-round pick
• 2024 fourth-round pick

The Denver Broncos acquired Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick from the Seahawks for:

• Multiple players (tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock)
• 2022 and 2023 first-round picks
• 2022 and 2023 second-round picks
• 2022 fifth-round pick

The worst-case scenario for the Ravens should be receiving Jeffery Simmons-type compensation for Jackson. The Chicago Bears just acquired the All-Pro defensive tackle and a 2028 fifth-round pick from the Tennessee Titans for a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 first-round pick, and a 2027 fourth-round pick. 

Presumably, the acquiring team would be working out a new deal with Jackson in connection with the trade or shortly thereafter. It wouldn't make a lot of sense for Jackson to potentially just be a one-year rental after giving up substantial assets to acquire him.

What if Jackson and the Ravens can't reach a deal

There isn't a lot the Ravens can do if Jackson is determined to become an unrestricted free agent in 2028 because of the clause prohibiting a franchise or transition tag after his contract expires. Keeping Jackson at his $84.34 million cap number would be unprecedented. The largest cap number a team has ever had during the regular season is held by the Cowboys, with Prescott at $50.5 million in 2025. The Ravens would have Jackson at essentially 67% more than Prescott's cap number by leaving his cap number intact.

Another contract restructure might be necessary. Depending upon how much of Jackson's base salary was converted into signing bonus, as much as $37.4 million of 2027 cap room could be created without adding a dummy/voiding 2031 contract year. A maximum contract restructure of base salary would create a cap nightmare for the Ravens in 2028 with Jackson signing elsewhere. Ravens would have $79.9 million in 2028 dead money due to Jackson's departure.

There is a remote chance that a refusal to negotiate a contract extension and to waive the no-trade clause would lead to the once-unimaginable: Jackson getting his freedom one year early. Releasing Jackson with a post-June 1 designation next March 2027 would have the same cap implications as a trade after June 1. 

Jackson's full $84.34 million cap number would remain on Baltimore's books until June 2, when his $52 million salary would be removed, resulting in a corresponding gain of 2027 cap space. Baltimore would have $42.47 million in dead money in 2028. The major difference is that Jackson would be free to sign with another team upon his release, and the Ravens wouldn't qualify for a 2029 compensatory third-round pick like they would if he left with an expiring contract in 2028.