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Plenty of hot takes have circulated lately for why notable college football quarterbacks have struggled to develop over the past two seasons.
These conversations are a bit amusing considering that not long ago many believed the answer to making it as an NFL quarterback was to play as much as possible in college. Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels were the poster boys for that argument because both appeared in at least 48 collegiate games before hitting the ground running as NFL rookies.
Just a few months ago, many applauded Texas’s Arch Manning and Oregon’s Dante Moore for returning for a fourth collegiate season. However, amid a disappointing 2026 season, both are now being criticized for not declaring in April when NFL evaluators viewed them as top-five draft picks. Now, it’s difficult to tell where the two signal-callers would land if each decides to enter the upcoming draft. Both could also return for another year of college. Rumors are swirling about Manning possibly transferring, and Moore’s season was cut short due to a concussion he sustained in September.
With or without Manning and Moore, another quarterback class will be labeled as weak, but that may be the wrong assumption. Many scouts are high on Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, and there’s a good chance Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss and Miami’s Darian Mensah also hear their names called in the first round of the draft.
In the lead-up to the 2025 and ’26 drafts, pundits were quick to say that next year’s QB class would be better than the ones headlined by Cam Ward and Fernando Mendoza—the top two picks in the past two drafts, respectively. If not for recent struggles from sophomore sensations Kamario Taylor, who’s now out for the season, and Keelon Russell, we might have heard this phrase on repeat once again: “Wait until next year to draft a quarterback.”
Next year keeps arriving, yet the quarterbacks everyone was supposedly waiting for continue to take steps back in their development. There’s no right answer for making it in the NFL, but staying an extra year in college isn’t always the best path.
Many college quarterbacks may be overthinking their NFL future. There’s a lot more to consider in the era of the NIL and transfer portals. However, if NFL evaluators are showing significant interest, it’s probably best to go while the iron is hot.
Sure, maybe it’s not the best idea to play for the Jets, a team Moore might have been trying to avoid when he didn’t declare for the 2026 draft with New York slotted at No. 2. But in ’24, Caleb Williams attempted to orchestrate his ideal landing spot after hitting it off with Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell at the scouting combine and even took a predraft visit with them, knowing very well it would take a miracle for Chicago to trade the No. 1 pick to an NFC North rival. The same team Williams liked just gave up on J.J. McCarthy two seasons after making him a top-10 pick.
Moral of the story: Ideal spots don’t always stay that way. Being drafted by Chicago has worked out for Williams despite a rocky rookie season with then-coach Matt Eberflus. I’m sure Williams didn’t foresee partnering with coach Ben Johnson when he was dreaming of working with O’Connell. The entire NFL draft is practically a gamble, and no one truly knows what’s to come after entering the league.
At the same time, though, NFL teams also have to stop overthinking and waiting for the perfect prospect. Having a little more patience with developing players would go a long way, too. Perhaps there’s no Caleb Williams–like prospect in the upcoming draft, but Mestemaker has shown flashes of being the next Josh Allen. Often, it’s better to bet on upside and overlook the small sample size. Mestemaker was a walk-on at North Texas only two years ago and didn’t play quarterback for his high school varsity team. Allen also flashed in his sophomore year at Wyoming and regressed a bit in his junior season, but he still went No. 7 to the Bills in 2018 because his upside was worth betting on. And it took Allen roughly three years to find his footing in the pros.
While pundits continue to write off Manning and Moore, a handful of teams will likely roll the dice on the flashes of the past few seasons. From what I’ve heard, Manning still has a strong chance of going in the first round if he declares. Scouts aren’t as sure about Moore because his health is uncertain after he sustained a head injury against USC last month. He could return to college for a fifth season and prove to teams that the concussion won’t be an issue moving forward, or he can just reassure them during the draft interview process. Scouts haven’t forgotten about the good tape Moore put out last season.
Moore’s availability matters more than his lack of consistency on the field and won-loss record. Many get caught up in those areas and forget that physical traits are what NFL teams care about the most. Also, don’t overthink it when it comes to a lack of competition. Mensah made a handful of big-time throws last week against a Pitt team that wasn’t very good. I’m sure those throws will come up when teams do extensive evaluations on the Miami signal-caller.
Another example of why college résumés are overblown, Drake Maye struggled in his final season at North Carolina. He played only three collegiate seasons, made many mistakes as a junior, but made enough flashes with his physical gifts to create intrigue. Maye finished as the No. 3 pick in 2024 behind Williams and Daniels, was the MVP runner-up, and played in the Super Bowl in his second season.
Let’s stop overthinking college football quarterbacks.
Brown played a key role in Texas’s signature win against Ole Miss, rushing 23 times for 157 yards. His overall numbers aren’t the best (84 carries, 422 yards, five TDs), but, strangely, the Longhorns haven’t utilized him more this season. Scouts want to see more of the 5'9", 193-pound senior.
The Kansas State transfer is finally getting recognition for his dominant season. He recorded two sacks against Michigan last week, and did the same the week prior against Ohio State. For the season, Osunsanmi has nine sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. He’s a bit undersized at 6'2", 250 pounds, but it’s hard to ignore his production.
Chambliss hasn’t had the best October after a sizzling September. He might be due for another sensational performance to improve his draft stock. Last week, Chambliss threw three ugly interceptions against Texas’s stout defense. He’s also had quiet performances against Missouri and Vanderbilt this month. Chambliss last took over against LSU in September.
Maiava’s best trait is his accuracy from the pocket, but even that has been a concern lately. He struggled in the loss against Wisconsin and threw two interceptions. He also had similar performances against Washington and Oregon earlier this year. But he was terrific in the win against Penn State. It’s been hard to read Maiava this season.
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has a golden opportunity to prove his breakout season is no fluke against a stout Texas Tech defense. He’s undersized at 5'10", 190 pounds, but he’s an exceptional playmaker with his downfield accuracy and knack for extending plays. Fifita has completed 74.2% of his passes for 2,064 yards, 18 touchdowns and four interceptions.
The Hoosiers have been one of my must-watch teams this season because of wide receivers Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh. I’ll continue to keep a close eye on them, but I will also be watching Minnesota’s hulking guard Greg Johnson, perhaps the best prospect at his position. Another intriguing offensive lineman in this matchup, Indiana tackle Carter Smith has received Day 2 chatter from scouts, but he’s been up-and-down this season.
This is a good week to watch the top offensive linemen. Many rank Utah offensive tackle Zereoue Williams highly, but others see him as a Day 3 pick. He’s a polished pass protector and has a massive frame at 6'8", 305 pounds. The Utes also have a talented running back in Wayshawn Parker, who has 102 carries for 644 yards and eight touchdowns.
We have two talented offensive linemen in this Big Ten clash. Many view Ohio State’s Austin Siereveld as a Day 2 pick. The same goes for USC tackle Elijah Paige, but others believe he can work his way up to a low-end first-rounder or high-end second-rounder.
And, of course, Jeremiah Smith will be involved. That’s enough to put this game on everyone’s must-watch list.
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