For a long time, the pecking order in darts seemed clear: Luke Littler raced from title to title, regularly leaving his rivals in awe as he set his sights on a record-breaking season. Meanwhile, the man considered his biggest challenger was coming under increasing pressure. Luke Humphries endured an inconsistent year, and his status as the clear world number two and the 19-year-old’s most dangerous rival seemed to be slipping.

But the picture has changed just before the European Darts Championship 2026 in Dortmund. While Littler has suffered an unusual run of setbacks, Humphries has made a powerful return with his first individual major title in 16 months. The world number one remains the benchmark, but his biggest rival appears to be back within striking distance at just the right time in the season. Recent statistics also suggest that Humphries could upset the odds at the European Championship.

From historic heights to unexpected setbacks: Littler’s season hits its first bumps

Littler’s year had started like a fairy tale. After winning the World Championship at Alexandra Palace, “The Nuke” continued his winning run at the World Masters, beating Humphries 6–5 in sets in a high-quality final. He then claimed the UK Open with an 11–7 victory over James Wade in the final. In June, Littler and Humphries won the World Cup of Darts together, before Littler delivered a dominant display at the World Matchplay in Blackpool. He claimed the title with a sensational tournament average of 111.04 and set a new record.

Luke Littler extended his historic winning run with a triumphant World Matchplay victory in Blackpool, but the 19-year-old has suffered several surprise setbacks recently.

That brought his tally to five major titles. A historic clean sweep—the capture of all ten PDC majors in a single season—suddenly seemed more than a far-fetched dream. But the dream ended at the World Series of Darts Finals in Amsterdam. Littler suffered a surprisingly heavy 10–4 quarter-final defeat to Jonny Clayton, who was outstanding on the doubles. It was his first major loss of the year, but not his last. At the World Grand Prix, the Englishman went out in the opening round, losing 2–1 in sets to Luke Woodhouse. Even at the World Youth Championship, which he surprisingly entered in early October, he failed to reach the final. The overwhelming favourite lost 6–5 to Cameron Crabtree in the semi-finals.

Humphries is back—and at just the right time

While Littler dominated the darts world for months, his compatriot’s season was far more uneven. After a painful 5–1 defeat to Gian van Veen in the World Championship quarter-finals, Humphries reached the Masters final and won titles both on the floor and on the European Tour. But “Cool Hand Luke” struggled in the Premier League, sitting seventh after ten nights.

He then mounted an impressive recovery, reaching four nightly finals, winning one night and qualifying for the play-offs. There, Humphries lost to Littler 11–10 in the deciding leg of the final. He also showed his quality at the World Series summer events, reaching the final in Copenhagen and beating Littler 8–7 in New York soon afterwards. Further Players Championship titles followed, but the consistency he wanted on the major stage remained elusive. He went out to Cameron Menzies in the first round of the World Matchplay, then exited in the last 16 at the World Series of Darts Finals.

Doubts about Humphries as a serious title contender grew louder. His response was swift: at the World Grand Prix in Leicester, he beat Gerwyn Price 6–4 in sets in the final to claim his first individual major title in a year and four months. Just a week later, he continued his run on the European Tour in Basel. Outstanding averages of 114.15 and 111.17 powered him into the final, where Jonny Clayton finally stopped him.

The numbers favour Humphries—with one notable exception

A look at their performances since 17 September, when the World Series of Darts Finals began, shows just how closely the two Englishmen’s form has converged.

Most notably, Littler still holds a narrow lead in First Nine Average. The 19-year-old therefore continues to apply enormous scoring pressure in the opening stages of legs. Humphries not only makes up that small deficit, but also posts the higher overall three-dart average. His checkout percentage is better, too, at 83.33 per cent.

Perhaps the most interesting difference, however, comes on the doubles. Littler converted 38.19 per cent of his chances over the period in question, compared with 41.96 per cent for Humphries. That is a gap of 3.77 percentage points—a difference that can prove decisive in a close contest between two world-class players. The figures do not prove that Humphries is especially strong under pressure on match darts, but they do show that he has been more clinical with his chances of late.

And that could be the key. Littler still has the ability to overwhelm opponents with his scoring. Humphries, meanwhile, is currently combining consistently high standards with reliable finishing—the kind of form needed to match the world number one over longer distances.

Littler leads 24–15—but Humphries knows how to beat his rival

Humphries has proved time and again that he can trouble his compatriot. Littler leads their head-to-head record with 24 wins to 15, but the pair have also served up several thrilling contests this year.

Luke Humphries heads to the European Darts Championship on the back of his World Grand Prix triumph and a fresh boost in confidence—and could meet Luke Littler there again.

Littler edged the World Masters final 6–5, then won five of their eight meetings in the Premier League regular season. “The Nuke” went on to take the play-off final by the narrowest of margins, 11–10. Humphries hit back, though: he beat his rival 7–5 in a World Series semi-final, then 8–7 in the final of another event. The most recent meeting listed here, the final of the 12th European Tour event, went Littler’s way again, 8–6.

So Humphries can hardly be called Littler’s bogeyman. But he is a rival who can match Littler’s pace, produce exceptional averages of his own and beat him when it matters. Humphries also brings the experience of numerous major finals—and the confidence of a newly crowned major champion.

Dream final in Dortmund? The draw makes it possible

The stage is set for another chapter in this rivalry. The European Darts Championship draw is not made at random; it is determined by the European Tour Order of Merit. That has placed the two English favourites in opposite halves of the draw: Humphries in the top half and Littler in the bottom.

A meeting between them could therefore only happen in the final. Before then, both must first come through their respective challenges. Littler opens against William O´Connor, while Humphries faces his friend Ryan Searle in the first round.

Despite his recent defeats, “The Nuke” heads to Dortmund as the sport’s undisputed benchmark. But Humphries has made an emphatic reminder in recent weeks of why he was long regarded as Littler’s most dangerous challenger. He is playing more consistently, hitting his doubles more reliably and has made a major statement on the big stage with his World Grand Prix triumph.

Whether that will be enough to stop Littler in a potential dream final remains to be seen. But if the 19-year-old shows signs of weakness in Dortmund again, Luke Humphries is likely to be among the last players to let him off the hook.