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Astros Still Have Work to Do to Strengthen Its Starting Rotation

Nick Martinez could be an interesting alternative to provide stability and depth to the pitching staff.

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez (28). Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With the news that Tatsuya Imai will not exercise his opt-out clause, the Houston Astros have settled one of their questions this winter, but it is still unknown what the Japanese right-hander’s role will be in 2027.

His last start of the regular season was on July 27, and he lasted just ⅔ of an inning after allowing one hit and issuing four walks against the seven Angels hitters he faced. In the end, Houston was able to come away with a 4-2 win.

Then, starting in early August, his final appearances came as a reliever, and he pitched to a 2.00 ERA, with 25 strikeouts, 11 walks, and no home runs allowed in 18 innings, during which he faced 73 opponents.

Imai, who still has $36 million and two years remaining on his contract with the Astros, also has another opt-out clause after 2027.

So, the fact that Imai will be part of the pitching staff in 2027 still does not guarantee his presence as a starter, and I still believe the Astros should look for at least a couple of arms in the free-agent market.

An Available Option Who Could Fit Houston

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Nick Martinez (28). Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Nick Martinez declined his $20 million mutual option with the Rays and received $4 million in the process, making him a free agent.

Martinez, 36, undoubtedly had one of the best seasons of his career in 2026 with the Rays, leading the staff with 180 innings pitched and finishing second in bWAR (3.9), wins (15), and quality starts (16), behind only rotation ace Drew Rasmussen.

Martinez participated in his first All-Star Game and also turned out to be one of Tampa Bay’s most dominant pitchers in the postseason, an added value that we should not overlook.

Martinez pitched in four games, the last of them as a reliever with two effective innings — he pitched the sixth and seventh innings scoreless — in the marathon Game 4 in which the Rays defeated the Brewers 4-3 to avoid a sweep in the World Series.

In the end, he finished with a 1-1 record, a 2.81 ERA, and an even lower 2.16 FIP. In 16 innings, he allowed 13 hits, struck out 12 opponents, issued just three walks, and did not allow any home runs against 60 opponents. Tampa Bay finished with a 3-1 record in the games in which he appeared.

Nick Martinez 2025 vs. 2026 Savant Comparison Tool. | Baseball Savant.

However, what stands out most about Martinez has been his great durability and stability as a starter, and although he is not defined as a power pitcher, he finished in the 92nd percentile in pitching across the entire league, in addition to placing his fastball in the 97th percentile and his offspeed in the 91st.

Those were two considerable jumps compared to his performance in 2025, when he finished in the 32nd percentile in pitching with the Cincinnati Reds.

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez (28). Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

His ability to generate whiffs and strike out hitters was far from the league average — he finished in the 2nd and 4th percentiles, respectively — but he reduced hard contact very consistently and finished in the 100th percentile in BB%, since he rarely issued walks.

With a solid defense like the one the Astros could put together at most of the key infield positions and, of course, if they strengthen the outfield, especially in left field and center field — they still have to decide whether they will make an offer to center fielder Daulton Varsho — Martinez’s potential could bring good results.

Another unavoidable point here is that Martinez will not be one of the most expensive starters on the market, although it is obvious that he will seek a multi-year contract given his recent impact and the fact that he will be entering his age-37 season.

So, in any case, I still believe Houston should look for one more arm for the rotation to address the lack of depth the team suffered from during 2026.

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