The Ravens are getting back their franchise savior for Sunday’s game, with Lamar Jackson back from nearly a month out with a high-ankle sprain.

Jackson says the pain is “bearable” and rookie head coach Jesse Minter – who claimed for nearly three weeks this was a day-to-day-situation – is pushing the idea, hard, that Jackson will be all-systems-go and able to run as much as ever. We’ll see about all of that, but with Baltimore’s season on the brink, and it’s roster and leadership and failing general manager all in question, and with the Bills coming off the bye, this will be quite the challenge.

In situations like these, teams that do have a backbone and accountability tend to rise up and play their best ball of the season and make a statement. And that’s what will be required for the Ravens’ stumbling defense, which has not been any good for years and which is where a bulk of GM’s Eric DeCosta’s nastiest work has left even Minter – hailed as a schematic genius – utterly clueless and unmasked in the second half of games.

Getting DeCosta-ed 17 times since 2019 is no joke, and they’re managed to do it (blow double-digit leads to lose) two weeks in a row in critical AFC games. They’ve done it under two head coaches and seven coordinators but just one front office. Hmm. So maybe we get the best of what Baltimore will ever have to offer, and that had best be the case.

Even 75% of Lamar should be enough to put up points on a Buffalo secondary that is among the worst in football and has massive holes everywhere. But can the Ravens do enough to keep Josh Allen from putting up a point or two more than Jackson? I have my reservations and in particular about these four key matchup elements :

Two-Headed Rushing Monster

The Ravens have yet to be tested on the ground, at all. They haven’t faced an opponent that even feigns to run the ball at all; the only one that could, the Colts in Week 1, didn’t because they had a stupid game plan and they fell desperately behind early. The Saints, Bengals, Cowboys, Titans, don’t threaten anyone, and so the Ravens being 12th in success rate (22nd in EPA) probably flatters them.

The Bills are arguably the best rushing team in the NFL with a multi-faceted attack James Cook is tops in rushing yards since the start of last season and Josh Allen is a historically significant running QB who is a TD machine on the ground. When they run from middle to the left it’s six yards a carry; $30M “closer”’ Trey Hendrickson always lines up over left tackle; good luck with that.

Longtime Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale said it best on “The Daily Flock” this week – Hendrickson can’t stop the run enough to get on the field on early downs for him and is a “designated pass rusher,” no matter how much DeCosta paid him. Oh, and the Ravens most complete edge defender, Tavius Robinson, is out for the season.

Suggestion: They’d better be willing to play second-round pick Zion Young way more than they have been in this one. If Minter uses a LB like Trenton Simpson to spy Allen, I suspect it comes back to bite him in the pass game.

Slot Slump

We have been chronicling this deficiency on a weekly basis and it could be acute Sunday. Joe Burrow has so much success shredding Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey on the outside racking up 35-unanswered points Sunday he didn’t need to ping tight end Mike Gesicki in the slot much. Allen is top 5 in the NFL with a 117 rating throwing to the slow since the start of last season (18 TDs – 6 INTs) and his emerging TE Dalton Kincaid is going to be a handful for this group.

The Ravens have seen the second-fewest targets to TEs in the NFL, but allow a 132.5 rating when they are thrown to, and Kincaid is catching everything he sees this season. Khalil Shakir will tear up the Ravens smaller dime defenders if they get that match up and DJ Moore (questionable) is a two-way go is a problem and he could be back for this one too.

The free yards in the slot have been a blight on Minter’s defense and if he keeps up the same dime looks with the same personnel he will get cooked again.

Suggestion: Hamilton probably needs to do the job on the tight end and Marlon Humphrey needs to be in the slot and TJ Tampa needs to get a run on the outside. Minter better be willing to get into more man looks and blitz Allen, because he will shred this defense in the quick game just like Burrow did if he isn’t in duress. (Oh and dump Humphrey's salary by the deadline)

Losing Mentality

The Ravens have doomed themselves with their character flaws week after week. If they start slowly, and have to chase the game, with a QB who was out nearly a month, that’s not great. And even if they build a nice early lead, well, we know how that goes.

The lack of experience on this coaching staff and the lack of intensity from the highest-paid veterans on the defense is a toxic combination. Minter and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver were falling all over themselves to talk around some of their issues – blaming the crowd was quite a touch – but there better be some tough love going on in those meeting rooms.

Getting John Harbagh run out of town for these kinds of losses and then walking all over the new guy is an ugly look. Things always seem too comfortable when the GM is buddies with certain guys and plays favorites but its time for Minter to step up and shake things up. (Martindale explains the impact it has on a coaching staff and locker room here)

Suggestion: Better be ready to bench people. Needs to get real. Their paychecks are guaranteed, but DeCosta isn’t a coach as much as he preens and pretends he is on the sidelines. Trenton Simpson for Roquan Smith, Hendrickson on a pitch count, Humphrey on his way to the bench have to be on the table, and fast, if this garbage continues. If Mark Andrews plays ahead of rookies Matthew Hibner and Josh Cuevas on offense it’s a sign of what an unserious, totally political operation they are running. Wake up.

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