Mississippi State quarterback AJ Swann started 12 games for Vanderbilt across his first two seasons before the two sides parted ways. Three schools later, the Commodores are the team walking into Starkville Saturday, and the only question is whether his right arm will let him enjoy it.

Swann watched the second half at Texas with his arm in a sling, and coach Jeff Lebby hasn’t named a starter. Lebby is splitting reps among Swann, former walk-on Billy Puckett, Jaden Rashada, who is on his fourth school, and freshman Brodie McWhorter. 

Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea, who recruited Swann to Nashville, sounded like he was keeping an eye on the injury report too.

“I hope AJ is healthy,” Lea said this week. “He’s someone that I built a relationship with in recruiting.”

Whoever plays quarterback, Mississippi State gets its best chance in weeks to stop the bleeding, and it gets to do it in front of a homecoming crowd. Here are three bold predictions for Saturday in Starkville. Vanderbilt’s struggles on the ground create a sensible starting point for the first prediction, while Swann’s status remains uncertain.

Zakari Tillman and the Bulldogs hold Vanderbilt under 75 rushing yards

Lost in the 31-3 score at Texas, Mississippi State’s defense did its job. The Longhorns ran 32 times for just 60 yards, and the Bulldogs added five sacks and five three-and-outs.

Now they get a Vanderbilt offense that ran 17 times for 15 yards in its last game at Kentucky. Senior linebacker Zakari Tillman framed the week around response, and the run defense looks like the easiest place to show it.

“It’s all about how we respond as a team,” Tillman said.

Jared Curtis throws two interceptions

Make no mistake, Jared Curtis is a special talent on his own. Vanderbilt’s true freshman is the highest-rated recruit in program history and the first Commodores quarterback to start as a true freshman since, of all people, Swann.

He also leads the SEC with eight interceptions. Curtis has thrown for 1,489 yards and eight touchdowns, so the big plays come with risk attached. Vanderbilt leaned on him heavily at Kentucky, completing 27 of 36 passes after the run game disappeared, and a Mississippi State pass rush that pressured Texas all night should force a couple of mistakes if the Commodores ask him to carry the load again.

Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs win by double digits

Vanderbilt has lost its five SEC games by an average of 18.4 points, and only the opener at Auburn finished within one score. The Commodores haven’t beaten Mississippi State since 2004, and the Bulldogs won the last meeting in 2021.

Just as telling, a team that has been beaten up by Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas finally faces an opponent it can push around. Expect a homecoming crowd to see the Bulldogs win comfortably, quarterback questions and all.

Lebby admitted this stretch of injuries has been unlike anything he has dealt with, and a lopsided win would be the first real relief in a month. 

“Haven’t lived anything like it, but we’re living it right now,” Lebby said.