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Are Liverpool in the title race? Their match against Arsenal will tell us a lot
Alexander Isak is second only to Erling Haaland in the race for the Premier League golden boot. Photograph: Carl Recine/Getty Images

Andoni Iraola’s team have shot up the table after a slow start but they are still not scoring enough goals

Every Liverpool win this season seems to come with an asterisk. Yes, they beat Brentford, but Brentford had a man sent off. Yes they beat Villarreal, but they conceded three. On Sunday, against Brighton the asterisks finally ran out. Liverpool beat the Premier League’s top scorers 2-0, kept a clean sheet against a side that had scored 23 goals in their first seven games, and won a league match at home for the first time since April.

Liverpool have won their last five games – including knocking Chelsea out of the Carabao Cup at Anfield on penalties – and are fourth in the Premier League, but there is still the sense that nobody quite trusts what they are watching. Liverpool remain a work in progress, with questions about their ability to create enough chances and break down stubborn opponents. Arsenal’s visit to Anfield this weekend will give us an indication of how much they have progressed under Andoni Iraola.

Given Liverpool’s spending and squad, this fixture should be seen as a title race six-pointer. Signing three attacking players for more than £100m – Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola and Alexander Isak – brings with it a certain level of expectation. The league table hardly dismisses their case for a title charge. Liverpool are fourth, a point behind Brighton and six adrift of Manchester City and Arsenal. A win at home on Sunday would put them just three points behind the champions. And they have been impressive in the Champions League, winning all three of their games so far to sit third in the 36-team table.

Since the 3-0 home defeat to Manchester City at the start of October, Liverpool have scored 15 goals in five games. Even that defeat at City comes with context. The game was goalless until Ryan Gravenberch’s red card changed it. It is a strong foundation, though cautious Liverpool fans – who have been watching the performances as closely as the results – will tell you there is still plenty to fix.

The fact we are discussing fixes rather than fundamental flaws is, in itself, a sign of how far Liverpool have come since May. In the last days of Arne Slot’s time in charge, their problems could not be solved by moving one piece on a tactics board. They had lost their identity and intensity. The tidy possession, early goals and sharp counterattacks that underpinned their title win disappeared – and Jürgen Klopp’s high-intensity press was long gone. Slot cycled through a 4-2-3-1, a diamond, a 4-5-1 and a back five without finding a system that worked consistently.

With a lack of identity came a struggle to balance an expensively assembled attack with a functioning defence. They conceded 53 goals in the league last season – their highest total since the 1993–94 season, when they had Bruce Grobbelaar in goal. They lost their resilience, too, conceding eight goals after the 90th minute. And they took just five points from losing positions compared with 19 the previous season. By the end of Slot’s time in charge they looked devoid of confidence and conviction.

Liverpool conceded 53 goals in the Premier League last season – their highest total since 1993-94. Photograph: Peter Cziborra/Action Images/Reuters

Those fundamental flaws no longer exist under Iraola. There is a recognisable identity again: a pressing, transition-hungry side designed to win the ball high and feed Alexander Isak, who has six league goals – second only to Erling Haaland in the race for the Premier League golden boot.

Liverpool have kept clean sheets in half of their league games this season, which suggests the balance has returned too. The team presses from the front, confident to commit numbers forward with a settled back line of Ronald Araújo, Virgil van Dijk, Jérémy Jacquet and Milos Kerkez behind them. Araújo has turned the right-back position from a weakness to a strength, bringing some much-needed defensive prowess. And Barcola’s work rate means Iraola can use the attacking talent at his disposal without leaving the defence too exposed.

The fight has returned as well. Twice in the last fortnight, against Brentford and Villarreal, they have fallen behind and won. In fact, Liverpool have already picked up five points from losing positions in the Premier League – as many as they managed in the whole of last season. They are yet to drop a point from a winning position.

So, why are there doubts? The most obvious issue is their lack of goals. Liverpool have scored just 11 goals in their eight league games; eight teams have scored more – Brighton have scored more than twice as many goals as Liverpool. The underlying numbers are also a worry for Liverpool. They have only created six big chances – the second worst tally in the division after Coventry. To put that in some context, Manchester City have created 28 big chances, while Bournemouth, Everton and Brighton have all created 20.

Liverpool fans are still waiting for Wirtz to have a real impact for the team. Photograph: Shaun Brooks/CameraSport/Getty Images

Part of the explanation lies with the way opponents line up against Liverpool. They face a low block more than most sides in the Premier League and rarely face teams that are willing to play out from the back against them. For a side that is built to break at pace and wants to win the ball high up the pitch, there has been a noticeable lack of room to run into. Only one of their 11 fast breaks this season has produced a goal.

The other issue is that, while Isak is scoring, their attack has not yet clicked in the league. Florian Wirtz perhaps symbolises the problem best. He produces plenty of chances but rarely the decisive pass. Wirtz has created 22 chances in the league – the second highest of any player in the division – but none have registered as a big chance created. He created nine opportunities from open play against Brentford, but none of them led to a goal.

Arsenal will prove an interesting test on Sunday as Liverpool will not face the problem of breaking down a low block. The champions will probably push high at Anfield and try to play in the Liverpool half. That will leave space behind, exactly what Iraola’s side have been missing.

Six months ago, the question was whether Liverpool could solve their fundamental problems. They are a team again: organised, intense and more resilient than in Slot’s last season. Results have been impressive so far but questions remain, namely whether Iraola can establish his high-pressing, transition-heavy approach against sides that play low blocks and still create chances at the rate of title challengers.

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