Just as Manchester United supporters felt their club couldn’t sink any deeper into the abyss, Lisandro Martínez reminded them there is no end to their suffering—well, not yet at least.

The Argentine’s utterly brainless red card fueled their misery during Saturday’s 2–0 defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. The Red Devils are now nine matches without victory in all competitions—the club’s worst run since 1988—and Michael Carrick is inching closer and closer to the guillotine.

For now, United’s crisis has provoked anger and bewilderment in equal measure, but at what point do they genuinely start fearing for their Premier League safety?

Having amassed just seven points from their opening nine matches in the league—their sole victory coming over newly promoted Ipswich Town—they sit perilously close the relegation zone. Remarkably, they find themselves just two points above last-placed Sunderland as we enter November.

With that in mind, Opta’s supercomputer has been busy recalculating its Premier League projections following United’s latest setback. So, what are the chances they’re actually demoted this season?

Supercomputer Calculates Man Utd’s Relegation Chances

Given the quality and resources possessed by United, there’s very little realistic chance they will be relegated to the second tier. However, many assumed the same about Tottenham Hotspur, who only clinched survival and their 17th-place finish on the final day of the campaign last season.

In the most unforgiving division in world soccer, nobody is too good to go down.

Opta certainly agree. While United are not among the favorites to finish in the bottom three, they’re still given a staggering 20.77% chance of dropping into the Championship come the end of the season. Over two months into the campaign, that’s pretty astonishing for the record 13-time Premier League champions.

They’re predicted to amass just 44.82 points across the season, which the supercomputer believes would result in a 13th-place finish. Alarmingly, that would still be two places higher than United finished during the 2024–25 season under a combination of Erik ten Hag and Ruben Amorim.

Considering the Red Devils entered the current season eager to solidify their position as a Champions League regular, it’s deeply concerning that they’re given a mere 1.64% chance of qualifying for Europe’s premier competition. Even the likelihood of making the Europa League only sits at 1.87%.

Of course, things can swiftly change, and several positive results would completely alter the supercomputer’s predictions. But the problem for United is things might get worse before they get better.

Fixture List Promises More Disappointment for United

Regardless of whether Carrick is sacked in the immediate future, United are braced for some really challenging fixtures during November. Five matches across two competitions bookend the upcoming international break.

Things begin in the Champions League on Tuesday, where United return to Old Trafford for an awkward encounter with Roma. The Italians are in fine form under Gian Piero Gasperini and among the current contenders in the Serie A title race.

Aston Villa then journey to Manchester in the Premier League. While a fixture in which United typically prosper, Unai Emery’s men will almost certainly be favorites for next weekend’s duel.

Immediately after club soccer’s hiatus, United face a trip to play bitter rivals Liverpool. They won at Anfield under Amorim last season, but that was their first victory at the stadium since January 2016, during which time they have lost 7–0 and 4–0.

United’s subsequent journey to Lisbon for a Champions League tie with Sporting CP could feasibly end in more heartbreak, as could their final match of November at home to Brentford, who have won two of their last three against the Red Devils.

Man Utd’s Next Five Matches