The Houston Astros might have won the AL West in 2026, but that does not mean the team was particularly great. Houson became the first division winner in MLB history to have a .500 record, and at the August 3rd trade deadline, they made just one move, aquiring Daulton Varsho from the Blue Jays.

Why the Varsho Trade Failed

Varsho got 161 plate appearances for the Astros, which is a decent sample size, and he posted a 50 OPS+ with five home runs and 14 RBIs. Varsho posted a -0.1 bWAR with the Astros and was a complete failure of a trade.

The Astros needed some offensive help, and Varsho could not provide that and give a good two months for the Astros down the stretch and in the postseason. To be fair to Varsho, he was placed on the IL in late September with left wrist inflammation, and who knows how long that injury was affecting his play?

When trades are made, the point is to improve the roster, and while that was the intention, Varsho simply complicated matters. The good thing is, Varsho was a rental and will now reach free agency for the first time in his career.

Does the Return Hurt That Much?

The Astros sent Spencer Arrighetti as the return to the Blue Jays, which for a rental is not that bad of a price. And looking at the 6.35 ERA in nine games for the Blue Jays in August and September, the Astros might not be missing that.

Arrighetti has always been a player with a mid-four ERA and some concern for injuries. But he's still developing as a pitcher, and the question should be asked if the Astros should have given him more time in their organization. If Arrighetti came out in 2027 vastly improved, that should not be to the surprise of anybody because of how well the Blue Jays develop pitching. Toronto clearly identified Arrighetti when making the deal with Houston, so improvement from what he was with the Astros should almost be expected.

Where this hurts the Astros is with depth. The thing that Houston needs to focus on this offseason is adding to their pitching staff, both in their bullpen and starting rotation. There are simply too many question marks to be comfortable calling the Astros contenders in 2027. Having Arrighetti still in the organization might have given the Astros more depth options to turn to or someone to further develop.

Because we don't know truly how Arrighetti will perform for the Blue Jays in the remainder of his time there, we can't definitively grade this trade. However, given how poor Varsho was with the Astros, I'd say it's trending towards a failing mark.