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Going to the dogs last week turned out to be dog doodoo. I picked every dog against the spread last week and it looked good early, but then it collapsed late with five straight losses, including both prime-time games Sunday and Monday night.
Nice try.
I was 8-6 straight up last week and 6-7-1 against the spread. Hey, the spread record was an improvement, which tells you how bad I've been this season. My ATS record this year is 43-61-3, which is a long way from .500. My straight-up record is 62-44-1.
So this week, it's back to just picking the games. Forget all dogs. Trying to get to .500 makes me borrow a coaching cliché they all use.
One game at a time. One week at a time.
Turnaround time.
All lines via DraftKings; All times ET
These two are both coming off losses. The Carolina loss featured the Bucs running over them for 258 rushing yards. It's been a problem all year. But the Packers don't run it very well, so something has to give. Carolina gave Jordan Love fits last year, but that will change here. Carolina gives up 27.7 points per game. Love lights them up and Josh Jacobs gets the run game going.
Pick: Packers 31, Panthers 24
Lamar Jackson could be back for the Ravens, but how much will his injured ankle impact his ability to move? The Bills are coming off a bye, so they will be rested. Baltimore's defense was bad in the loss to the Bengals last week, but Buffalo's defense has been awful. Look for a shootout here with Josh Allen getting the best of it.
Pick: Bills 35, Ravens 30
The Titans are having major problems on offense, while the Bengals lit up the Ravens last week. Joe Burrow was special in the second half of that game and I think that will carry over here. Look for an offensive explosion from the Bengals as Burrow starts to get into the MVP talk.
Pick: Bengals 36, Titans 10
The Cowboys' offense came alive against the Eagles Monday night, especially on the ground, which isn't a good thing for an Arizona defense that is last in the league in scoring. The Dallas offense should roll and the Arizona offense won't be able to keep up. Dallas big — even on a short week.
Pick: Cowboys 37, Cardinals 21
The undefeated Vikings face a tough road game here against Detroit. The Lions offense against the Minnesota defense will be a treat to watch. Jared Goff is playing at a high level right now, but Minnesota's defense is the best in the league in terms of scoring. The Vikings offense is limited, but the Detroit defense has had major problems. But they were better last week, which I think carries over. Lions take it.
Pick: Lions 23, Vikings 13
Kirk Cousins stays in as the starter for the Raiders, but teams have blitzed him the past two weeks. That could be a problem here since the Jets are a top-10 team in blitz percentage. The Raiders have struggled to stop opposing offenses, giving up 28.1 points per game, so look for Geno Smith to have success. Jets win it.
Pick: Jets 27, Raiders 16
This is a big game for the division lead in the AFC North. The Browns beat the Steelers earlier this year, but this will be a bigger challenge on the road. They are also playing consecutive road games, which will be a challenge. Look for Aaron Rodgers to play well as the Steelers take it.
Pick: Steelers 24, Browns 20
This is suddenly a big game in the NFC South with the Bucs upsetting Carolina last week and the Falcons upsetting the 49ers. The Tampa Bay running game has come alive, but Atlanta is stingy on the ground, giving up 3.8 per rush. That will mean this is a Baker Mayfield game. Tampa Bay gives up 3.5 per rush, which might make for tough going for Bijan Robinson. That's a problem for the Atlanta offense. Tampa Bay wins it.
Pick: Bucs 23, Falcons 17
The Colts are a mess; they are playing consecutive road games, and they haven't won at Jacksonville since 2014, when Andrew Luck was the quarterback. Oh, and they traded their best offensive lineman, Quentin Nelson. The Jaguars are coming off a bye, so they will be rested. This one will get ugly as the Jaguars bounce back from the loss to the Texans in London.
Pick: Jaguars 30, Colts 16
The battle of Los Angeles isn't quite the game many expected before the season. The Chargers, coming off a bye, haven't won yet and the Rams have been a disappointment. But the Rams won last week at Las Vegas to seemingly right things. They will win here, but the rested Chargers will keep it close.
Pick: Rams 23, Chargers 20
The Chiefs' offense was lifeless in Seattle on Sunday night and now faces a tough Denver defense. They have to find ways to get the running game going again with Kenneth Walker. Bo Nix showed some life last week in the victory over Arizona, but this Chiefs defense will be a challenge. Look for a low-scoring game won by Kansas City, with Walker getting going against Denver's defense, which gives up 4.6 yards per rush.
Pick: Chiefs 19, Broncos 14
The Dolphins won their first game last week and have been in a lot of their losses. But this New England team will be a challenge, even at home. The Patriots are coming off a bad road loss to the Bears, and they will be rested, having played on Thursday. The defense limits the Dolphins' offense, and Drake Maye will play well. New England wins it.
Pick: Pats 28, Dolphins 14
This might be an elimination game of sorts for these two. Both need a victory in the worst way — even in their horrible division. The Eagles are crippled by injuries, but Washington has plenty of their own. With the Eagles on a short week off a Monday night game and the Commanders off a bye, Washington will win it.
Pick: Commanders 28, Eagles 16
The Bears are riding high behind Caleb Williams and an improved defense. But this is a tough road trip against a Seattle team that showed what it can do on defense by shutting down the Chiefs Sunday night. Seattle also got the running game going. The Seattle defense will slow down the Chicago offense, and the Seahawks will win it.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Bears 17
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