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Coach Dan Lanning’s first trip to Columbus resulted in a pivotal Oregon Ducks win to stay in the College Football Playoff chase. The Ducks kept their postseason hopes alive with a 41-28 win on the road over the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 10.
The second CFP rankings released on Tuesday night revealed where the Ducks landed after debuting at No. 23 on Nov. 3. Not only did the big victory raise their chances of making the 12-team field, but it also had a major impact on the Buckeyes’ chances.
Oregon moved up seven spots to No. 16 in the second ranking, while Ohio State dropped to No. 20. Many questions were raised after the Ducks made it into the first ranking despite having three losses, but it set the stage for how they can make the final 12-team field.
The Ducks need to win out to have a chance to reach the CFP, but that seems much more plausible after the win over the Buckeyes. Two of the remaining three regular-season games are at Autzen Stadium. All three of the games are against teams at the bottom of the Big Ten standings.
First, the Ducks play the Michigan Wolverines at home. The Wolverines are not only 5-4 overall and 2-4 in conference play, but also just fired their offensive coordinator. Their defense could still pose a challenge to an Oregon offense just now finding its footing.
The team at the bottom of the Big Ten standings, the Michigan State Spartans (3-6 overall, 1-5 Big Ten), are the lone road game. A rivalry game against the Washington Huskies (5-4 overall, 2-4 Big Ten) rounds out the remaining regular-season games.
The question still remains about whether a three-loss team can or should get an at-large bid. The Alabama Crimson Tide showed it can be done in 2025 despite regular-season losses to Florida State and Oklahoma, and a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship.
The Ducks have resume-boosting wins over the Boise State Broncos (who come in at No. 24 in the second CFP rankings), the USC Trojans (who come in at 18 in the second CFP rankings), the Northwestern Wildcats (previously ranked No. 20 in the AP Poll) and now Ohio State.
If Oregon wins out and that’s not enough for an at-large bid, there is still a path to get there through the Big Ten Championship. The Ducks would need external help from the UCLA Bruins and additional losses from Illinois, USC and Indiana. The bottom line is that the second CFP ranking provides Oregon multiple avenues to get into the CFP.
On the other side of the coin, the Ducks’ Week 10 loss was detrimental to the Buckeyes’ chances, falling eight spots. The Buckeyes now appear like they’re heading toward their first time missing out on the CFP since 2023, back when it was just four teams.
If Ohio State is to miss out on the postseason, that would be an incredible shock given the postseason expectations it entered with. The Buckeyes debuted at No. 1 in the preseason AP Poll and were among the favorites to win the National Championship.
The Buckeyes won the National Championship in 2024 – beating the Ducks in the process – and seemed poised to make a run at back-to-back titles. Instead, they suffered consecutive losses in the Big Ten Championship to Indiana and in the CFP to the Miami Hurricanes.
Ohio State’s main wins on its resume in 2026 both came on the road. It narrowly beat the defending champion Indiana Hoosiers 19-15 on Oct. 17, while also defeating the then-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes 31-14 on Oct. 3.
Unlike Oregon, all three of Ohio State’s losses are to ranked teams (Texas, USC, Oregon). If the selection committee later looks at its defeats through a favorable lens, that could be the last hope to resurrect Ohio State. But given that there are a handful of teams in the Big Ten and nationally with two and three losses, not holding tiebreakers over Trojans and Ducks teams with multiple losses notably works against the Buckeyes.