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Bears vs. Patriots Thursday Night Football preview and why the over 50.5 is the best play

Caleb Williams returns from injury looking sharp while Drake Maye has turned his season around with 10 touchdowns

I had a nice Week 5, but my reads in Week 6 were a bit of a disaster. They weren't all losers, but the bets I felt best about were ruined rather quickly, unfortunately. Teams like the Colts had a meltdown, and I wasn’t able to overcome it with any of the other wagers I had. By the time I had locked in a bet on the Falcons, Caleb Williams was named the Bears starter. Not exactly an ideal situation. Hopefully this will be a better week as the Bears take on the Patriots on Thursday Night Football.

The New England Patriots are playing good football again, which is not something that you could've said a few weeks ago. Pessimists will say that the schedule is just a bit softer at the moment and that's why they’ve won. An optimist would say that the team has finally found the rhythm they are looking for. I don’t like to live too much on either side; I prefer to live as a realist as much as possible. The team has a solid defense, and their quarterback looks better.

Drake Maye vs Bills
Jan 5, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to throw against the Buffalo Bills during the first half at Gillette Stadium. (Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images)

Drake Maye struggled in his first few weeks this season. He threw a costly interception in Week 1 that sealed the win for the Seahawks. The Patriots were within field goal range at the time and probably could’ve kicked it to send the game into overtime. It was a fair attempt from Maye to at least try and win the game, but it was also his third interception of the season. He has seven of them for the year. Through three games, he had one touchdown pass and six interceptions. Since then, he's had 10 touchdowns and just one interception. Whatever change he made seems to have worked.

The Chicago Bears got their quarterback back last week, and the offense instantly improved. Caleb Williams has looked great under center this season and continues to make this a dynamic passing attack. Williams got hurt in his second game of the season, pulling his hamstring in dramatic fashion. The team was able to sustain his absence, though. The Bears went 2-1 without Williams under center. They beat the Eagles and Jets with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent before losing to the Packers.

Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears looks to pass during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Dec. 7, 2025 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears looks to pass during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Dec. 7, 2025 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Last week the Bears went to Atlanta and took down the Falcons 31-23. That final score was closer than the game actually was. The Falcons offense looked terrible until they scored 16 in the final quarter. Williams was great in the game, completing 83% of his passes and throwing for one touchdown. The running game has continued to chew up yardage and find the end zone. The Falcons had one of the better rushing defenses in the game, so it was impressive for the Bears to continue winning in the trenches.

Caleb Williams throws the ball
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)

The Patriots have one of the better passing defenses in the league, and they have faced some talented quarterbacks. Their rushing defense is not as good as the Falcons', so the Bears shouldn't have any trouble there. Both teams want to run the ball, and the Bears are about the same on defense as the Patriots. Their passing defense is slightly worse than the Patriots as well. The weather should be nice, and I think both starters are looking to light up the scoreboard. Give me the over 50.5 in this one. I also think the Bears cover, but it will only be a sprinkle if I play it.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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