Josh Pate took in Michigan football once in person this season, when Oklahoma came to Ann Arbor. And he had little faith in what the Wolverines would do in that game -- and rightly so, given how U-M looked in Week 1 compared to the Sooners.

So what does the commissioner of college football think will happen when Indiana comes to town, especially now that Tommy Carr is expected to start at quarterback over Bryce Underwood?

Pate has a bit of a cautionary tale in thinking that Carr will certainly elevate the offense, though he does recognize that it is possible. But he also isn't sure that Indiana is the powerhouse that it was last year, given how tight it's played multiple teams on the schedule.

"Indiana playing Michigan. Indiana headed into The Big House -- the house that Taylor Lewan built, as they call it up there," Pate said. "Seven and a half point favorites are the Hoosiers. Tommy Carr era has begun.

"Now I'm a little scarred, although this is totally apples to oranges, but I'm going to make the comparison anyway. Tommy Carr entered the game last week, and they ended up beating Penn State, and everyone feels good, rah, rah, rah. I am old enough to remember two weeks ago or three weeks ago, whatever it was at this point, when Dylan Raiola came off the bench, and he saved Oregon's season and everything looked great. And then went against USC. And then what did we have? We had a whole week, two weeks in that case of Dylan Raiola, knowing he was going to get the start. And it proceeded to be the worst quarterback, four quarters of football we've ever seen in the modern era.

"Now I don't think Tommy Carr is going to look that bad, but I'm not automatically throwing a ton of confidence behind the change at quarterback being made and all of a sudden the offense is going to take off. But I'm still putting a seven on the upset alert concern meter here because Indiana's profile this year is not what it was last year in the sense that they're not blowing folks out. They're playing tight games. They played Northwestern tight. They played Nebraska tight. They played Ohio State tight. They won two of them. They lost one. They're going on the road here. I just kind of think that may be their sweet spot. That may be their wheelhouse. That may be where they live this year.

"Michigan beat Penn State because they benefited from turnovers. They forced them. They benefited from taking the ball away. Indiana hasn't really done that a whole lot. Famously, Josh Hoover is yet to throw an interception. So if it's a lower scoring game, I think the total is 41 and a half, Jesse. Is that right? So it's a low -- oh, there it is right there. Yeah, it's a low 40s type total game, which means theoretically it's a lower scoring game, which means it's a higher variance game, which means I got to put a seven on the upset alert concern meter. I like the over a little bit though. I think the number is just a little bit too low. Not enough to bet on the show tonight though."

Michigan and Indiana will kick off at 12:10 p.m. EDT, with the game set to be broadcast on Fox.