FC Bayern must fight for direct qualification to the Round of 16 in the Champions League. After a 2-2 draw against Arsenal, the Munich team has just five points after three matchdays. The Opta supercomputer has now simulated the current Champions League season 10,000 times and produced an updated projection for the final standings. According to this, things could get really tight for the German record champions.

With one win, two draws, and five points, FC Bayern has so far fallen short of its own expectations. In particular, the two draws against Viking Stavanger and Arsenal have put the Munich team under pressure in the race for one of the top eight spots.

Their next challenge is also a tough one. On Matchday 4, Vincent Kompany’s team must travel to face Atlético Madrid. Losing any more points could significantly worsen their position in the battle for direct qualification to the Round of 16.

Supercomputer predicts Bayern will finish only in eighth place

The latest calculations from the Opta supercomputer show just how tight things could get for FC Bayern.

After 10,000 simulations, the Munich team ends up in eighth place in the projected final standings. This would mean the record champions would barely qualify directly for the Round of 16.

According to the forecast, Harry Kane and Co. will pick up ten more points from their remaining five matches and finish the group stage with a total of 15 points.

That would be enough for the last direct spot in the round of 16. However, there is hardly any room for further slip-ups.

As a reminder: The top eight teams in the group stage advance directly to the round of 16. Teams ranked ninth through 24th, on the other hand, must go through the playoffs.

For Bayern, this would be an additional burden given their already packed schedule.

According to Opta, all four Bundesliga teams will reach the knockout stage

The supercomputer has also run new simulations for the other German participants. According to these, Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart finish just behind FC Bayern. Both Bundesliga teams are projected to finish with around 13 points each, which would see them reach the playoffs.

However, according to Opta, both BVB and Stuttgart still have a slim chance of securing a spot among the top eight teams.

Even RB Leipzig, which suffered a decisive 1-4 loss to Real Madrid on Matchday 3, is still expected to advance to the knockout stage. The Saxons are ranked 22nd in the forecast.

This means all four German teams would advance past the group stage.

It’s also interesting to look at the title odds. Here, Arsenal remains the Opta supercomputer’s top favorite to win the Champions League.

Bayern Munich, however, is right behind them. Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, and FC Barcelona round out the group of the most promising title contenders.

Despite their mixed start, the Munich team thus remains among the hottest contenders for the trophy. First, however, Vincent Kompany’s team must ensure that they do not squander their chance at direct qualification for the Round of 16.