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CJ Carr's Shot at the Heisman Comes Down to Miami

CJ Carr could capture the Heisman Trophy on Saturday with a breakout performance and a Notre win over Miami.

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr scrambles with the ball during a NCAA football game against Stanford at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, in South Bend. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Notre Dame's CJ Carr was the preseason favorite to win the Heisman back in August, but those odds quickly dipped after Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith established himself as the best player in college football and the potential top pick in the NFL Draft.

But things quickly changed for Smith and his Heisman candidacy after OSU Julian Sayin went down with a right arm injury against Indiana.

And with a showdown against No. 1 Miami (Florida) and potential Heisman finalists Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney, Carr could very well regain the top spot in the Heisman race with a breakout performance and a win against the Hurricanes.

The current odds

Smith had been the Heisman favorite for a while, but not anymore. Miami quarterback Mensah (+160) is currently the favorite, and if the Hurricanes win and he plays well, the Heisman is probably his.

Smith (+280) has the second-best odds to win the Heisman, and a lot needs to go his way to surpass Mensah, including a Miami loss against Notre Dame.

Toney (+410) has the third-best odds, and if Miami wins and he goes off against the Irish and performs at an elite level the rest of the season, he could win the Heisman.

And then there's Carr (+750), who's still in thick of it. But make no mistake about it, he has to play great, and Notre Dame has to beat Miami. No ifs, ands or buts about it. If all that doesn't happen, Carr's Heisman hopes are as good as gone.

Closing thoughts

Obviously, this isn't the final game of the regular season, so a lot can still change over the next four weeks, but this game is essentially the season for both Notre Dame and Carr.

If Notre Dame wins, it's essentially a lock for the College Football Playoff, and maybe even the No. 1 overall seed.

As for Carr, if he can put together a stellar performance against the Canes and close out the regular season with 10 or more total touchdowns, the Heisman could be his.

It's been a while since one game has had so much on the line for two teams, but that's the case here.

ND's CFP hopes and Carr's Heisman fate are both on the line.

And if Miami wins, they're essentially guaranteed a bye in the CFP. As for Mensah and Toney, depending on who plays better on Saturday and down the stretch, could very well win the Heisman.

As for what happens, well, we'll have to wait till Saturday night to find out.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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