The New York Giants have played four games at home this season, three of which were played in the rain.

The results? A 3-0 record in those rainy games.

Well, guess what? Unless something changes in the weather forecast, it’s supposed to rain all night thanks to a nor’easter working its way up the coast, and at times the rain is supposed to be heavy.

Is that a good sign for the Giants? No, not really. They still have to put more points on the board than the Commanders, and there are any number of elements in their game plan that will go into that.

All kidding aside, let’s break down the possibilities, using a special theme this week of “one word” to answer both scenarios.

Why the Giants Will Win

One word: Defense.

The last time these two teams met, the Giants went after Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, blitzing him on 62% of his dropbacks. Given that the Commanders’ offensive line is banged up and will be missing starting center Lucas Patrick, the Giants should have the advantage with their pass rush to keep Daniels from getting too comfortable when he drops back to pass.

That said, the Giants obviously need to be wary of Daniels taking off and running. Last time he did just that, burning the Giants for 103 yards on nine carries plus two rushing touchdowns, a season high for Daniels.

New York is expected to change how it plays the possibility of Daniels as a runner by ensuring it has someone patrolling the inside rushing lanes Daniels exploited last time.

The Commanders gained the bulk of their rushing yards (76 on 12 carries) by running inside the tackles, with Daniels’ yardage coming up the gut. Shutting down those lanes will be paramount.

If the Giants can do that and force Daniels to throw against the Big Blue pass defense, which has allowed the third-fewest passing yards in the league, they should have a chance to keep the lid on the Washington offense.

Why They’ll Lose

One word: Turnovers.

The Commanders have recorded at least one fumble recovery in each of their last seven games.

And it probably doesn’t need to be said that when the Giants lose the turnover battle, as they have done twice this season (in Week 5 against the Commanders and again in Week 6 against the Saints), they have not won the game.

With the weather expected to be soggy all night, holding onto the ball will be paramount.

Prediction

Something big is at stake this week for both teams: the head-to-head tiebreaker, which will come into play should the Commanders, by some chance, make a late-season push up the NFC East ladder.

The Giants know this as well, which is why they are viewing a potential win as worth two in the standings. The Giants felt they should have won the first game after the comeback they staged, and they may realize they were lucky that the Commanders’ poor clock management turned the first meeting into a tie.

That said, this week’s game will probably be a low-scoring affair given the anticipated sloppy and wet conditions.

Giants 17, Commanders 13