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Early Look: Four Ways Arkansas Can Pull Off Upset Against Missouri

Tigers bring one of the SEC's more productive offenses to Fayetteville, but the Razorbacks have opportunities to trick Missouri into weaknesses on Halloween night

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jackson warms up prior to game against Tennessee Volunteers. | Nilsen Roman, Hogs On SI Images

FAYETTEVILLE — Both Arkansas and Missouri have the week off to get healthy and prepare for the Battle Line Rivalry at Razorback Stadium on Halloween night Saturday, Oct. 31.

This will be the first SEC night game that Arkansas has hosted since Oct. 19, 2024 when the Razorbacks lost to LSU 34-10.

For the first six years of Eli Drinkwitz's tenure at Missouri, he's utilized serviceable quarterbacks such as Connor Bazelak, Brady Cook, and Beau Pribula. However, the Tigers haven't had as talented of a passer quite like the one they have right now in Austin Simmons.

Missouri Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons (13) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Ole Miss transfer has completed 132-of-209 pass attempts for 1,773 yards, 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions through seven games. But Simmons isn't the only reason Missouri is ranked in the top-25 with a 5-2 overall record either, because he has help in the backfield with the emergence of Jamal Roberts.

The senior running back has been quite exceptional this season with backfield mate Ahmad Hardy sidelined due to an offseason accident. Roberts leads the nation in rushing with 167 carries for 876 yards and eight touchdowns, all which are career-highs at this point in his career.

He's probably licking his chops going into this game because of Arkansas' inability to stop the run in any fashion defensively. The Razorbacks currently rank No. 77 nationally in run defense this season by allowing just over 144 yards per game on the ground and No. 134 in touchdowns given up with 19, which is also the worst among SEC teams by a wide margin.

Missouri allowed Ole Miss to post 257 yards and one touchdown less than a week ago, and will be facing a Razorback rushing attack that has been improving each of the previous four weeks. Arkansas is creeping up statistically on the ground at No. 124 nationally by averaging over 111 yards per game on the ground.

Since the pedestrian start to the season, the Razorbacks have rushed for 555 yards and six touchdowns since the Tulsa game. A 138 yard average per game would only push them squarely inside the top-100 at No. 98, there is still much room for improvement and Missouri will provide a stiff test to get there.

Arkansas Razorbacks coach Ryan Silverfield celebrates following a 34-6 victory over Tulsa. | Nilsen Roman, Hogs on SI Images

What Silverfield Is Saying

Arkansas coach Ryan Silverfield has often said the right things throughout the season even if it hasn't completely showed up on the field. With this being a trophy game manufactured by the SEC, he isn't quite ready to get caught up in what this whole thing actually means.

However, there are plenty of built-in storylines to watch develop this week, including how the Tigers have dominated the series in recent years, Drinkwitz being an Arkansas native and so many more.

Silverfield is looking to remain focused on making sure his Razorbacks continue to improve over following a victory over Vanderbilt last weekend that effectively snapped their 14-game SEC losing streak.

"Yeah, listen the Battle Line state trophy, right? I heard it’s over 4-feet tall. Is that correct? And I know their head coach [Eli Drinkwitz] is from this great state. Coached against him in ’24, actually," Silverfield said. "But, listen, for us, it’s … I know a lot of fans said this is a big one. They're all big, and for us, it's a nameless, faceless opponent with so much respect to them.

"They're a ranked team coming here, and the opportunity for us to go out there and perform at our highest level. And listen, I love traditions. I love rivalry games. I love all those things, and I will continue to talk to our team about some of those things because I don't ever want that to get lost. But out there during practice, we're not sitting there thinking about a trophy. We're just out there seeing how we can improve and go out there and be our best."

If it feels like you have read that same quote before, it's because the likelihood is Silverfield has said it before. He's been consistent in his messaging, longing for his players to be "ALL IN" on the process of establishing Arkansas is a tough-nosed football program. Regardless of the opponent, he wants his team focused on its preparation rather than everything happening outside of their control.

There's certainly something to be said for that approach, especially considering how the Razorbacks have responded over the previous two games. They were less than five minutes away from potentially knocking off a ranked Tennessee team at home two weeks ago before putting it all together in a 31-21 victory at Vanderbilt on Saturday.

For Arkansas, taking each week one-game-at-a-time is the best approach to have, especially against a top-25 opponent in Missouri. Silverfield doesn't want to add any additional pressure or motivation like playing for a trophy to take down the Tigers.

He needs them to continue battling like they have over the past few weeks and see where it goes for the remainder of the season.

If Arkansas is going to find success against the Tigers, then they must find a way to beat them in these key areas.

Arkansas Razorbacks defense celebrates after Carter Stoutmire's tackle for loss against North Alabama on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026. | Nilsen Roman

Continue To Limit Scoring Opportunities

Missouri does have one of the top offenses in the country coming in at No. 23 nationally with 3,007 yards of total offense, but have struggled to score at certain points at 31.1 points per game (No. 60, FBS).

If Arkansas can continue to limit scoring opportunities (allowed 21.25 ppg over the previous four games) that could potentially give the Hogs life in the fourth quarter.

Finding Success on the Ground

During last week's 31-3 loss at Ole Miss, the Rebels rushed for 257 yards against Missouri, providing a blueprint Arkansas could follow if its offensive line continues to make progress.

"What I’ve seen is they’re being physical in the run, they’re doing some good things in the pass protection," Silverfield said. "So pleased. And again the two guys that are currently not listed as the starters per se, they’ve done some really good things for us this season. But I think what we’re seeing from Kash and Adam is another step up, and they still have a lot of work to do. Pleased with that."

Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz reacts during the first quarter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Redzone Struggles

If there's one key area Arkansas has the edge against Missouri, it's in the redzone.

The Tigers will enter the rivalry game next Saturday ranked somewhere in the mid 110s nationally scoring touchdowns on just 14-of-28 possessions when drives have reached the redzone. Even with such a dominant rushing attack, Missouri's offense hasn't quite figured out what to do when the field gets smaller.

In SEC games, that viw doesn't get much better as offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey's unit has scored touchdowns on 5-of-11 redzone trips.

On the other hand, Arkansas has scored touchdowns on 15-of-26 trips in the redzone this season, including 7-for-11 against SEC teams.

Arkansas Razorbacks wide receiver Chris Marshall during the second half against Tennessee. | Nilsen Roman, Hogs On SI Images

Explosive Production

Another area worth watching is whether the Razorbacks can generate explosive plays through the air.

One surprising stat fans probably wouldn't know about this team is the Razorbacks have notched 72 passing plays of at least 10 yards this season, which ranks No. 20 nationally. But only 34 of those have resulted in gains of over 20+ yards.

Missouri's defense has allowed 63 pass plays of at least 10 yards and nearly 32% of those have exceeded 20 yards. Opposing quarterbacks are having their most success on 3rd-and-medium plays (4-to-6 yards), completing 15-of-23 passes for 138 yards and two touchdowns with 11 of those 15 completions resulting in a first down.

If this game does come down to the wire in the second half, KJ Jackson has shown himself to be a steady arm when it matters. He has completed 61-of-90 passes in the third and fourth quarters, throwing for 660 yards, four touchdowns and only one interception.

Jackson is at his best when he's put in third-and-manageable situations.

3rd Down, 1-3 To Go: 2-of-3 for 26 yards (two first downs)
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go: 8-of-14 for 84 yards (seven first downs)
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go: 6-of-13 for 103 yards (four first downs, two interceptions)
3rd Down, 10+ To Go: 11-of-22 for 160 yards (six first downs, one touchdown)

This could be a chance to put his arm to the test against a Missouri defense that's shown some vulnerability to big pass plays.

For Silverfield, the focus isn't necessarily on bringing home a trophy or proving something to a rival he's sort of familiar with. It's about making sure Arkansas continues taking steps forward, and a victory over Missouri would certainly qualify as one of the biggest steps yet for his Razorbacks program.

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