When LSU and Auburn meet on Saturday, what can we expect?

Will barns burn, or victory cigars? Will the earth shake, or just coaches’ reputations? Will Auburn fans roll Toomer’s Corner in another toilet paper celebration, or will LSU make tears roll instead?

There are a million ways to look at this one, set for an 11 a.m. kickoff on ABC from Auburn’s Jordan-Hare Stadium. Let’s dive into some key factors:

History and momentum

Even though LSU (5-2, 2-2 Southeastern Conference) goes into this one as slightly better than a touchdown favorite over Auburn (4-2, 2-2 SEC), the visiting Tigers aren’t inspiring a great deal of confidence. That’s because LSU has lost its last eight straight SEC road games dating back to October 2024, including road losses under Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and Kentucky.

Conversely, Auburn is coming off one of the season’s biggest shockers, a 27-24 win at previously top-ranked Georgia as nearly a three-touchdown underdog.

Pressure versus ‘relief syndrome’

LSU’s long SEC road losing streak has little to do with Kiffin and most of his players since two-thirds of them are in their first year with the program. Still, if the Tigers drop their ninth straight SEC road game and fall to 0-3 under Kiffin away from Tiger Stadium — all losses to first-year coaches at their schools — then the optics for LSU’s $91 million man and his $45-50 million roster won’t be good. Especially since it could well mean the end of the Tigers’ College Football Playoff hopes. Auburn is Must Win City for LSU.

Meanwhile, Auburn must try to avoid something that has tripped up other SEC schools in 2026 after a big win: a “Hangover Saturday,” or what Kiffin called “relief syndrome.” We submit these results into evidence:

• Ole Miss beat LSU 32-24, then was routed 52-28 at Florida.

• After stomping Ole Miss, Florida was stomped 45-17 at Missouri.

• Oklahoma beat Texas 27-24, then fell as a favorite at home 21-13 to Kentucky.

• Georgia won 20-17 at Alabama, then lost to Auburn.

“Relief syndrome,” Kiffin said, “is a real thing. Doesn’t mean we’re going to win this week and they’re going to lose, but that is a real thing. A real challenge.”

Kiffin said he hoped Auburn would beat Georgia for that very reason. Little was expected of Auburn going into its first season under Alex Golesh. Now all eyes are on the Plainsmen (old Auburn nickname) for the first time in years. How will they respond?

Numbers game

Statistically the game is a mismatch, heavily favoring LSU in most key areas:

• Total offense: LSU is seventh nationally averaging 504.0 yards per game. Auburn is 66th at 394.2.

• Total defense: LSU is third nationally allowing 256.4 ypg. Auburn is 87th (371.0).

• Points per game: LSU is again seventh at 40.4 per game. Auburn is 85th (26.8).

• Points allowed: LSU is tied for 16th (15.9 per game). Auburn is tied for 54th (21.8).

• Sacks/sacks allowed: LSU has 27 sacks, tied for second in the FBS. Auburn has allowed 23, ranking 135th of 138 teams.

There is one other stat that could decide the game, however, that LSU likely must win.

Turnovers

The Tigers have only won the turnover battle twice (Texas A&M, McNeese State) and are minus-2 overall. According to ESPN/ABC analyst Greg McElroy, who is calling Saturday’s game, Kiffin teams are 3-19 when minus-2 or worse in the turnover ratio. LSU was minus-1 at Ole Miss and minus-2 at Kentucky. Conversely, McElroy said Golesh’s teams at Auburn and USF are a sparkling 20-1 when winning the turnover ratio. That included a 3-0 edge against Georgia.

Both LSU turnovers against Kentucky were on quarterback Sam Leavitt (one interception, one fumble). Neither led to points for the Wildcats but did cost LSU two potential scoring drives that may have allowed the Tigers to avoid overtime. In the duel between Leavitt and Auburn’s Byrum Brown, the quarterback who has a cleaner stat sheet will likely prevail.

Overall, Leavitt appers to be improving despite still dealing with a sore hamstring. Per Pro Football Focus, his average time to target on pass plays has dropped from 3.06 seconds his first three games to 2.55 the past four. That’s a quarterback growing in confidence in a new offense. Conversely, Brown averages more than three seconds per pass attempt. Against LSU’s formidable pass rush, that could be significant. Brown basically holds the ball too long, but if he decides to take off and run (he had 115 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries at Georgia) LSU must contain him. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker could choose to crowd the line of scrimmage while trusting a talented secondary against an Auburn attack that only ranks 99th in passing efficiency.

Tempo and total plays

Both teams like to speed opponents up. LSU ranks third nationally with over 79 snaps a game, while Auburn’s defense is on the field for 73 plays a game, ranking 133rd in the FBS. That makes it important for LSU to keep up the pace and possess the ball, a potentially difficult combination in a hostile road environment.