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Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher’s opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don’t always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It’s not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.
Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.
Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson, we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else.
In this space I’m going to look powerfully into total team air yards trends, players seeing plentiful prayer yards, and those who are outperforming their air yards profile and (perhaps) due for the bad kind of regression.
Below is a quick look at league leaders in total team air yards through eight weeks of the regular season, sorted by total air yards per game.
There’s no real concern here about the Lions offense producing a humble 190 total team air yards in Week 8 against the Vikings. Detroit was 14 percent below its expected pass rate against the nightmare Minnesota defense, by far their run-heaviest game of the year.
The Vikings were putting Jared Goff directly into the blender in the first half of Sunday’s game. The Lions responded with a turbo run-heavy approach that worked beautifully. They should go back to giving us lots of air yards in Week 9 against the Dolphins. It is noteworthy that Miami opponents average a league-low 211 total air yards per game.
The Bengals at some point over the past few weeks decided to dispatch with all that under-center, balanced offense nonsense and let it rip. Someone — Joe Burrow most likely — turned up the pass rate machine as high as it would go, snapped off the dial, and threw it in the garbage.
After going 17 percent over their expected pass rate in Week 8, they’re now by far the pass heaviest offense in the NFL. The air yards are in tow: Cincy is third in total team air yards per game (370) over their past two pass-heavy outings. The Bengals over the season’s first month were averaging about 300 total air yards per game.
It’s obvious Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will continue benefiting from the air yards surge. Mike Gesicki could also come along for the ride; he’s eighth in tight end air yards and he’s 15th in expected fantasy points per game among tight ends.
With A.J. Brown out with various injuries the Patriots all but shut down the air yards machine in Week 8 against the Dolphins. They had a grand total of 151 team air yards, the third fewest in Week 8.
DeMario Douglas and Kyle Williams were tied with the team league with a depressing 38 air yards, while Efton Chism had 24. New England went ultra run-heavy against Miami, finishing 9.3 percent below their expected pass rate; they passed on just 45 percent of their early-down snaps. I’m not sure they’ll be able to do that in Week 9 against a Green Bay defense giving up 279 team air yards per game.
Our big, beautiful garbage time Cards are all the way back. Against the Cowboys on Sunday they posted 420 team air yards, the fourth highest total of Week 8. Over the past three weeks Arizona has averaged the fourth most air yards per game (342) as they have trailed on 61 percent of their offensive snaps this season.
An Arizona defense that now allows the league’s fourth highest EPA per drop back and the sixth highest adjusted yards per play won’t have much chance of setting up the Cardinals offense for plodding, clock-killing drives. An (potentially) improved QB situation with Gardner Minshew taking over for the horrendous Jacoby Brissett should keep the air yards machine churning for the Cardinals in the coming weeks.
Michael Wilson, as you may have seen, finally got his visit from the (positive) Regression Reaper on Sunday against Dallas. He turned 222 air yards into quite a nice fantasy outing. Wilson is now second to Matthew Golden in wideout air yards on the season.
I wouldn’t read too much into Kyler Murray looking halfway decent against the extreme pass funnel Detroit defense that suffered a spate of injuries last week. Minnesota was 3 percent over its expected pass rate against the Lions; it’s not like they turned into the Bengals.
The Vikings’ 350 total team air yards was more than 100 air yards over their season-long average coming into Week 8. It was enough to get Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson there for fantasy purposes. That’s not how the team wants to play though. Justin Jefferson, who had just 19 percent of the Minnesota air yards in Week 8 while Addison enjoyed a 53 percent share, knows that well.
The Jets had an air yards explosion in Week 8 after I had kinda written off that offense as a source of air yards and targets and all the stuff that leads to fantasy points. So it goes.
Here’s the thing about the Jets putting up a league-high 497 total team air yards in Week 8 against the Raiders: They were 3 percent under their expected pass rate and ranked 12th on the week in early-down neutral pass rate. In no way did the team lean into the pass; they operated as they usually do. It was just one of those high volume games — the Jets and Raiders combined for 122 plays — that juices fantasy numbers.
If you were cursed enough to play against Adonai Mitchell in your various leagues, you won’t be stunned to learn he had a cool 222 air yards against Vegas, the second most of Week 8 behind only Michael Wilson. That constituted a 43 percent air yards share for Mitchell, who was fresh off a zero in Week 7. Mitchell’s route rate went from 51 percent in Week 7 to 72 percent in Week 8, and his average depth of target (24.6) tells us he remains a prototypical boom-bust option. He just so happened to boom against a bad Raiders secondary.
So what, you might ask, happened to Omar Cooper, Jr., who was mentioned in last week’s Regression Files as a negative regression candidate. It’s pretty simple: Cooper ran a route on 75 percent of the team’s drop backs -- running from the slot at a 58 percent rate -- and didn’t see a single target against a Raiders defense being shredded by slot guys.
Cooper had been targeted on 24 percent of his pass routes over the previous two games. In no way do I think the Jets are phasing him out in favor of Mitchell. But Mitchell’s return to the offense means Cooper has to compete for targets with at least two legit pass catchers.
The Bucs are putting up air yards totals from the Eisenhower era (sorry to get political). Tampa over the past two weeks has 114 total air yards, an unimaginably low number in the modern era. This constitutes an all-out war against the spreadsheet warriors. It won’t stand.
With a -35 percent pass rate over expected since Week 7, the Bucs seem perfectly content running the ball until someone can stop them. I understand not every Bucs game will be played in a monsoon. Still, I think the message has been sent: We will establish the run like football teams did when doctors thought smoking was good for you.
For fantasy purposes, I think this means we have to avoid Tampa pass catchers at almost any cost. Emeka Egbuka leads the team in air yards and sits outside the top-30 receivers in season-long air yards. Ted Hurst is 40th in air yards. It’s a bleak situation.
Prayer yards rate: 64 percent (3rd)
Boston had yet another big air yards day in Week 8 against the Steelers that didn’t lead to much actual production. The rookie had 116 air yards (48 percent share), good for 16th among wideouts on the week. He wound up with 37 yards on six grabs.
Boston remains a prime candidate for an extended visit from the Regression Reaper, who was seen at a Cleveland-area gas station Tuesday evening.
Only four receivers with at least 25 targets this year have a higher unconverted air yards rate than Boston. We could see him cash in some of those air yards for real yards against a vulnerable Saints secondary in Week 9.
Prayer yards rate: 58 percent (14th)
While his unconverted air yards rate isn’t shockingly high, it’s fairly low for a wideout with an aDOT of 9.1 yards. With Terry McLaurin sidelined in Week 8, Diggs ran a route on 75 percent of the team’s drop backs and was targeted on 24 percent of those routes.
Diggs in Week 8 was tied with Antonio Williams for the team lead in first-read targets (5). I think Diggs profiles as a positive regression guy in Week 9 and beyond based in part on his role in a good passing environment: Only seven offenses have averaged more total air yards per game than Washington since Week 4, and only four teams have a higher neutral pass rate than the Commanders over that stretch.
Bullseye rate: 63 percent (9th)
Coming off a game in which he turned four targets into 38 yards and a touchdown, Flournoy is converting air yards at what appears to be an unsustainable rate.
A WR3 on his own team being targeted on 17 percent of his routes should draw a fair amount of skepticism from managers in 12-team leagues. Don’t get stupid with Flournoy in Week 9. He remains a nice contingency option in case CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens miss time in the second half of the season.
Bullseye rate: 78 percent (4th)
Ladd’s absurd air yards conversion rate is driven in part by a 56-yard near-touchdown Hail Mary catch he had at the end of the first half last week against the Rams. Even so, McConkey is running hot with turning air yards into real-life yards.
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He drew a target on just 15 percent of his pass routes against the Rams in Week 8 while accounting for 36 percent of the Bolts’ air yards. The Chargers as a team had a mere 202 total team air yards against the Rams, much lower than their season average (277).
McConkey, I think, can still be flexed in 12-team leagues. You might consider keeping him on the bench if you’re solid at receiver headed into Week 9 — just in case he gets a visit from the Regression Reaper, whose cousin, the Grim Reaper, has taken up permanent residence at Chargers headquarters.
Expected fantasy points per game: 23.4 (3rd)
Actual fantasy points per game: 19.2 (12th)
Shough, who so far this season has been the beneficiary of immense offensive play volume in the fast-pace Saints offense, could see some of the good kind of regression in Week 9 and beyond. Unless, of course, he’s just plain bad.
The Saints are 11th in pass rate over expected and fourth in neutral pass rate. The volume should continue for Shough and the Saints pass catchers. It’s a matter, as usual, of converting opportunities into fantasy points with which we can feed our families.
Expected fantasy points per game: 17.2
Actual fantasy points per game: 20.1
Daniels’ isn’t over-performing by any sort of mind boggling margin on the season. He’s been hotter than hot over his past three outings though, averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game while his expected points sit at 17.5 per game. That’s quite the gap.
Probably you have to start him in Week 9. That’s fine. I felt a moral obligation to share this data with you though.
DEN air yards allowed per game: 329 (6th)
CAR air yards allowed per game: 299 (13th)
Denver is still withholding the air yards from fantasy football nerds who yearn for 2025, when the Broncos were flooding the spreadsheets with team air yards. Bo Nix and company could be forced into a bunch of throws this week against a Panthers team that can be beat any which way.
The Broncos are allowing a bunch of weekly air yards while remaining a slight run funnel defense. That’s rare, but we’ll take what we can get. Expect Bryce Young to have a potentially silly number of drop backs in Week 9.
ATL air yards allowed per game: 317 (7th)
CIN air yards allowed per game: 304 (12th)
The Falcons had been allowing a top-three rate of air yards per game before the Bucs sucked the air out of the football in Week 8.
This has all the makings of a back-and-forth game, as the Falcons — outside of last week — profile as an extreme pass funnel defense and the Bengals are pretty much done with doing the balanced offense thing. Such an environment could make Mike Gesicki and Jahan Dotson playable in deeper leagues.
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