ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum believes Texas is one bad Saturday from unraveling, warning that a loss at Missouri would push the two-loss Longhorns into a season-defining trip to LSU with their College Football Playoff hopes hanging on Arch Manning.

Speaking Sunday on “The Matt Barrie Show,” Finebaum called Texas at Missouri the Week 10 game he might be most interested in. “Texas, if it loses this game, it could collapse because it goes the following week to Baton Rouge,” Finebaum said.

Finebaum’s warning for Arch Manning

Finebaum added, “You don’t want that to be your fourth loss when you have built everything from the ground up with Arch Manning at the top of the cake.” Texas has two losses, so a defeat in Columbia followed by another at LSU would get there, and the Longhorns haven’t played in Baton Rouge since 1953.

After the 27-24 loss to Oklahoma, Finebaum said Manning “can just be downright stupid” in some moments. Following a 27-24 home loss to Florida a week later, he said on “First Take” that benching the junior quarterback was overdue: “Yes, it is time.” Texas stayed with Manning, and he has answered with two straight wins.

Why can’t Texas afford another loss?

The Longhorns (6-2, 3-2 SEC) own one of the season’s best wins, a 24-23 victory over then-No. 1 Ohio State in Week 2. They also beat then-No. 7 Ole Miss 34-27, but only after a 24-3 halftime lead became a 24-24 tie in the fourth quarter. Both losses came by three points and swung on fourth-quarter turnovers, including a pick-six against the Sooners.

Saturday’s 31-3 win over Mississippi State came with warning signs. Manning threw three touchdown passes, but the Bulldogs sacked him six times and wide receiver Cam Coleman left the game and didn’t return. Coach Steve Sarkisian called his roster “a growing team that continues to find ways to win.”

Texas plays three of its final four games on the road, at Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M, with Arkansas as the lone home date. A roster built to contend for a national title has no business in the 12-team field if it can’t win one important road game in November, and another loss would add fuel to the debate over Manning’s future in Austin.

Missouri’s College Football Playoff path

Host Matt Barrie argued the Tigers deserve more attention than they’re getting. “Missouri’s schedule is good enough that, Paul, if they win out, they’re getting in,” Barrie said.

Coach Eli Drinkwitz’s team improved to 6-2 with a 34-10 win at Arkansas, where four Razorbacks turnovers became 24 points. Missouri also owns blowout wins over Florida (45-17) and Texas A&M (27-6), and both of its losses came on the road.

The remaining path runs through Texas, a trip to Georgia and a home game against Kentucky, two 7-1 teams sitting atop the SEC standings, before a finale against Oklahoma. A 10-2 Missouri team with wins over Texas, Georgia and Kentucky would hold one of the strongest resumes in the country.

The first College Football Playoff rankings arrive Tuesday night, and Texas visits Missouri on Saturday at noon ET at Faurot Field.