NBA trades rarely come out of nowhere. The warning signs are already there. Here are the stars that could shake up the league next.

If there’s one thing we should have learned this past summer, it’s that nothing that happens in the NBA should shock us anymore. If there’s a second thing we should have learned, it’s that we need to differentiate the “shocking” from the merely “surprising.” Because there’s a palpable difference in NBA terms.

The Jaylen Brown trade? Shocking, because he’d led Boston to a championship and was named Finals MVP just two years But not surprising, because the Celtics had dangled him previously—and, well, because Brown’s freewheeling Twitch monologues had raised obvious concerns.

The LaMelo Ball trade? Certainly surprising, because there’d been no hint Charlotte planned to jettison the face of the franchise. But certainly not shocking, because the Hornets had drafted two younger stars—and, well, because Ball’s freewheeling persona is tough to build around.

The LeBron James decision? Not surprising that he would leave Los Angeles, given the Lakers’ obvious prioritization of Luka Doncic. But certainly shocking, in the moment, that he chose the Philadelphia 76ers—a team he had no clear ties to—over, say, another Cleveland homecoming. 

And the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade? The only thing shocking was how little the Milwaukee Bucks got in return. But surprising? No, no one could be surprised by the time the trade to Miami was hatched, because the relationship between the Bucks and their star had clearly disintegrated, in full public view.

Hmm, you know what? Scratch the first two lessons. Let’s start over: If there’s really, truly one thing we should have learned by now, it’s that we should pay closer attention to everything: every tremor, every hiccup, every murmur of discontent, and every last passive-aggressive quote. Because, folks, these things rarely come out of nowhere.

Giannis had been telegraphing his concerns in Milwaukee—and the possibility of leaving—for literally three years. He’d said, multiple times, that winning another championship was more important than spending his whole career with one team. And the Bucks were clearly trending downward. The signs of an eventual divorce were right there, in freaking neon—even if Giannis tried to deny it and the locals refused to see it. In Boston, rumblings of a Jaylen Brown–Jayson Tatum rift percolated (and were downplayed) for years—right up until the moment Brown was traded.

As we’ve noted before, loyalty is a bygone concept in today’s NBA, on both sides of the ledger. Nothing is Nothing can be No one is Anyone can be traded, at any time, for any reason. And with superstars, the clock is always, always ticking. Even now, two weeks into the new season. 

Nikola Jokic sounds a little testy. Bam Adebayo sounds a little aggravated. And Devin Booker? He just seems like a guy whose talent is being wasted. Is it comically premature to speculate about their futures? By most reasonable standards, yes. But the NBA does not abide by the laws of reasonability. 

Every rival team executive is monitoring the Denver Nuggets’ struggles … and the Miami Heat’s struggles … and the Phoenix Suns’ struggles … and whatever the hell is happening in New Orleans and Sacramento. It’s the way of things in the NBA, where one team’s disaster is another team’s opportunity. The trade deadline is months away. But the monitoring, scouting, and scheming are 24/7/365 activities.

As one longtime team executive put it: “Twenty-nine executives are not doing their job if they’re not constantly thinking about how to get Jokic on their team.” (Note to salivating aggregators: This quote is neither revelatory nor salacious; it’s just how the league works. Move along.)

So what follows here is not a forecast of who will be traded next, or even whether these players will be traded at all, but rather a rough, crowdsourced watch list—the kind that hangs, virtually or literally, in every NBA front office. Because while it might be too soon to tell the future, it’s never too soon to start gathering tea leaves. These are the players whom rivals are, ahem, monitoring.

Whether any of these players will move before the February 11 trade deadline or next summer is, of course, unclear. But if this summer was any indication, the next transactional big bang could come at any time.

The Nuggets, as has been well-documented, have been bleeding talent since the moment they won it all in 2023. They have yet to make it back to the Western Conference finals, and they’ve fired both the GM and the head coach who guided that championship run. Jokic, of course, has repeatedly pledged his loyalty to the franchise and recently vowed to sign an extension next summer. 

But vows and contract signatures don’t mean much. Every star knows he can always force a trade when the time comes. (Just ask Giannis. Or Damian Lillard. Or James Harden. Or Kevin Durant. Or Kyrie Irving …) In this case, if things got truly dark in Denver, Jokic could simply decline his $62 million option next summer and explore free agency. We’re not there yet. But Jokic lashing out at Nuggets fans—twice!—for booing in the season’s opening week certainly sounds like a player losing patience.

“They’ve obviously struggled to build around him since the championship because of the financial constraints,” said a second team executive. “Do they finally just say: All right, he's 31 now; do we just pull the trigger because he’s got a huge extension coming up this summer, and then it’s going to be even harder to build around the guy?” An in-season trade of Jokic is considered highly unlikely by league insiders, but next summer is a different matter. “I think people are paying attention,” the second exec said.

One rule of thumb in this exercise: If you’re looking for trade candidates, follow the bad vibes.

In Miami, they’re now emanating from Adebayo, who struggled to mesh with Giannis in their first four games together (all losses) and then accused the media of making him a “scapegoat” for that poor start because he had the audacity to point out those struggles. But was Bam’s anger really about the commentary—or about his own diminished role and awkward fit alongside a new franchise star? 

Those concerns have faded somewhat in the past week, but league insiders remain highly skeptical of the Adebayo-Antetokounmpo pairing. “I never thought those two were going to fit together,” said the second exec. “I just don't know how you run an offense with two power forwards. Neither one of them can shoot and operate in the same space.” The Heat badly need more playmaking, shooting, and depth, and they—having sent all of their best role players to Milwaukee—have very little of value to trade … other than Bam himself.

It’s a wonder Booker has lasted 12 seasons in Phoenix without lashing out at, well, someone, given how clunky the Suns have been, on and off the court, since their Finals appearance in 2021. Their last playoff series win came in 2023. Their prospects this season, in an increasingly competitive Western Conference, are bleak. Booker is 30, still firmly in his prime. How much more of this can he take? How much longer can Phoenix afford to keep him (and his massive ) given the results? The Suns aren’t getting anywhere with him, but they could reset and restock their draft capital by trading him.

Other players bear watching because their teams seem caught between conflicting timelines, conflicting agendas, or conflicting skill sets.

Does Anthony Davis—at age 33, with a $58 million contract this season and eyes on a massive extension—really make long-term sense on a young, rebuilding Washington Wizards team whose hopes now rest with 19-year-old rookie AJ Dybantsa?

Does Kyrie Irving—at age 34, with a $39 million contract and hopes for his own extension—really make long-term sense on a Dallas Mavericks team that’s now in the hands of 19-year-old Cooper Flagg?

Will Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner ever mesh well enough (or stay healthy long enough) to make the Orlando Magic a contender? Or is it time to break them up, after years of data indicating they do not, in fact, mesh well at all?

Do the Los Angeles Clippers—stripped of their draft picks and their dignity—need Darius Garland as the face of their future? Or as a trade chip to replenish that draft cupboard?

The Portland Trail Blazers created a backcourt logjam this summer when they acquired Ja Morant to join Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, and Scoot Henderson. Morant’s injury alleviates the issue for now, but rivals fairly wonder: Will Henderson—who did not get an extension and is headed for restricted free agency next summer—get sent away?

The rebuilding Chicago Bulls signed veteran Norm Powell to a cap-friendly contract (two years, $45 million) that other execs say was practically designed to be traded. 

Paul George has been a perfect costar in Boston, but his contract (expiring in 2028) is perfect fodder for another major trade.

Finally, we have an entire tier of players that can best be described as the “What are they even doing here?” group.

Milwaukee got some talent in the Giannis deal—Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Kel’el Ware—but none of them are talented enough to lead the Bucks anywhere. But any of those three, along with Myles Turner, could help a good team.

Are the meandering Brooklyn Nets really trying to build a playoff team around Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle? Or just serving as a way station until they can flip them to better teams?

Does it make any sense for the Kings, mired in yet another rebuild, to hold on to Domantas Sabonis? Does it make any sense for the Pelicans, who have never won a playoff series in the Zion Williamson era, to hold on to … Zion Williamson? Does it make sense for the perpetually inept Pelicans to hang on to anyone at this point?

“My take,” said the first team exec, “is that, generally, the top players should move from teams that are out of contention to the ones that are in contention more often.” The point being that bad teams, almost by definition, have little use for high-priced talent—and are better off cashing out for picks and younger, cheaper players (as the Bucks did with Giannis, albeit under duress). 

Was the latest flurry of blockbusters a sign of things to come? Is this the new normal? That depends on who you ask. In the second-apron era, teams seem to be pivoting sooner when they hit a wall—just look at the Timberwolves, who, in the span of two years, flipped Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle, then offloaded Randle and Naz Reid for Ball. 

But we could see a counterweight in the form of the NBA’s latest lottery reform, which flattened the odds and, consequently, boosted the speculative value of nearly all first-round picks. Trading multiple firsts carries much more risk now than it did a year ago. (The days of five firsts for Mikal Bridges are probably over.) “You can’t assume that when you make one of these trades that the picks you’re sending out won’t be as valuable,” the exec said. “You can be the ninth-worst or 12th-worst team and end up with a very good pick now. I think the amount that teams get for these stars will go down, which means that teams will not move them as much as they should.”

Perhaps. But some combination of desperation, pressure, and competitive zeal will keep the trade market humming. No one is about to stop trying, or speculating. Because, well, if there’s one more thing we’ve learned about this league, it’s that just when we think we have a handle on things, it finds a way to shock us all over again.

Howard Beck

Howard Beck got his basketball education covering the Shaq-and-Kobe Lakers for the L.A. Daily News starting in 1997, and has been writing and reporting about the NBA ever since. He’s also covered the league for The New York Times, Bleacher Report, and Sports Illustrated. He’s a co-host of ‘The Real Ones.’