Florida State basketball will return to the Donald L. Tucker Center on Friday night for its first home game of the regular season, and ESPN expects the Seminoles to take care of business.

According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, FSU has an 89.2% chance to beat Troy, leaving the Trojans with just a 10.8% chance of pulling off the upset.

The projection comes after Florida State opened the 2026-27 season with an emphatic 113-69 win over Florida A&M in Tampa. The Seminoles never trailed, led 54-27 at halftime and controlled the glass with a 47-30 rebounding advantage. FSU also forced 17 turnovers and recorded 12 steals.

Sebastian Rancik led the way with a career-high 25 points on 8-of-12 shooting, while freshman center Marcis Ponder posted 15 points and 11 rebounds in his FSU debut. Anthony Robinson II added 16 points, Kam Taylor scored 15, and Brandon Bass Jr. finished with 13.

That balance helped Florida State look every bit like a team ready to build on an encouraging preseason under Luke Loucks.

Troy enters Tallahassee at 0-1 after falling 71-60 to UMass in its opener. The Trojans shot just 34.4% from the floor and endured a 17-0 UMass run that turned the game. Donovan Oday was Troy’s standout, finishing with 21 points, 12 rebounds, and six steals.

Friday’s matchup also begins a lengthy stretch at home for FSU. The Troy game is the first of six consecutive contests at the Tucker Center, with Florida, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Ball State, Green Bay and UNC Asheville all scheduled to visit Tallahassee afterward.

Florida State and Troy tip off at 7 p.m. ET Friday at the Donald L. Tucker Center. The game will be streamed on ACC Network Extra.

For a Seminoles team that looked sharp in its opener, ESPN’s projection suggests the expectation is clear: protect home court and move to 2-0.