Giannis Antetokounmpo landed at No. 4 on our preseason NBA99, ranking the 99 best players in the NBA as the 2026-27 season begins. Luka Dončić was one spot behind him, at No. 5. Check out the rest of the list here.

The NBA is officially back, and that means it is time to see how much everyone has grown over the offseason. Some things have changed, but others will stay the same.

One of those things is that Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo are two of the premier stars in the league. However, one is just a tad bit better than the other. As you can tell from the headline, Antetokounmpo is the one with the slight edge. Don't understand why? Well, keep on reading, my friends.

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Why Giannis Antetokounmpo is better than Luka Dončić in 2026-27

Dončić is in the prime of his career (still just 27 years old), and with LeBron James gone, he finally has the Los Angeles Lakers all to himself. Antetokounmpo is also in a more optimal situation than he was in last season, playing with the rock-solid Miami Heat rather than the dysfunctional Milwaukee Bucks. However, he is four years older than Dončić. Conventional wisdom says that Dončić's stock is rising up, while Antetokounmpo's is going down.

Conventional wisdom isn't always right, though. Even in an injury-riddled 2025-26 campaign, Antetokounmpo finished fourth in the entire league in Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) -- two spots ahead of Dončić (per Dunks & Threes).

One-number metrics (even one as good as EPM) don't tell the whole story, but they can be useful when leveraged properly. Here, they tell us that Anetokounmpo is a meaningfully better defender (91st percentile in DEF EPM) than Dončić (70th percentile).

DEF EPM has always been higher on Dončić than consensus because he's a strong defensive rebounder for his position, but, for the most part, he's someone you have to hide and surround with defensive talent in order to succeed. Antetokounmpo can be the foundation of a strong defense, especially when he's paired with another rim protector like he was in Milwaukee with Brook Lopez. This gives you so much more flexibility from a team-building standpoint, and, as a general rule, the more flexibility you have to craft your roster, the better chance you have of building one that can go all the way.

OFF EPM is ever so slightly higher on Dončić, but Antetokounmpo is no slouch on that end of the floor. He's was literally one spot behind him in overall league-wide rankings in that statistical category. Antetokounmpo was in the 97th percentile in offensive rating on/off last year (per Cleaning the Glass). And even with how abysmal the Bucks were, they were still in the 86th percentile in the league in offensive rating when The Greek Freak was on the court.

Even if you think Dončić is the better offensive player, the margin is super slim. Way slimmer than the gap that exists between the two players on defense. Player evaluation is a complicated exercise. But in this instance, it seems pretty clear: give me the great offensive player, who is also good on defense, over the great offensive player with serious defensive limitations every day of the week.