ESPN analyst Greg McElroy is picking Notre Dame to hand No. 1 Miami its first loss of the season Saturday, a result that would give the Fighting Irish the signature win the College Football Playoff committee says they lack.

McElroy predicted a 34-27 Notre Dame win on his Always College Football podcast, saying “in a got-to-have-it situation, the Fighting Irish come out on top at home.” The Irish (7-1) sit No. 11 in the first playoff rankings, the last team in the field.

How can Notre Dame beat Miami?

McElroy said earlier this week that one game will decide Notre Dame’s playoff fate, and his plan for that game starts with quarterback CJ Carr’s short passing game. He likes it because “every easy first-down completion is a third-and-long that Notre Dame never has to face.”

Pass defense has been the weak spot of Miami’s unbeaten season. The Hurricanes rank 103rd nationally in passing success rate allowed, per Game On Paper, and they needed a late strip-sack to escape North Carolina 38-35 last week.

“If those are landing, then the Irish live in third-and-short, and Miami’s defense spends the night chasing eight-, nine-, 10-play drives,” McElroy said. “North Carolina converted eight of 11 third downs against Miami last Saturday. So the blueprint is already on film.”

He also wants the Irish to test a Miami run defense that opponents have mostly avoided.

“Notre Dame’s not going to avoid it, because the Irish get stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 15% of their runs,” McElroy said. “Their best lane might be outside the tackles. That’s where Miami has been a little bit more ordinary than the season total suggests.”

Marcus Freeman’s fourth-down aggression

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman gives McElroy another reason to back the Irish. The fifth-year coach has treated fourth down as a fix for his offense’s third-and-long problem, and McElroy expects that to continue against Miami.

“They’ve converted 14 of 19 fourth downs this year. But Miami has stopped 10 of the 14 that they’ve faced,” McElroy said. “So those drives, that’s how the Irish get to, say, 28 points. And Freeman is 42-2 when his team scores 28 or more.”

Carr carries plenty of pressure into the game. The sophomore has 18 touchdown passes and one interception this season, but he’s 2-3 as a starter against ranked opponents with six touchdowns and five interceptions in those games.

McElroy doesn’t expect Miami’s offense to stall, either. “Miami is still going to score because on third down and in their red-zone offense, they’re as good as anybody,” he said. The Hurricanes convert 54.5% of their third downs, second nationally, while Notre Dame ranks 108th in red-zone defense.

What does Toney’s absence change?

Miami will play without Malachi Toney, the sophomore receiver who suffered a high ankle sprain in practice Wednesday and is expected to miss four to six weeks after surgery. Toney has 73 catches and 13 touchdowns, and he averages 128.4 receiving yards per game. Cooper Barkate, Miami’s No. 2 receiver, averages 46.5.

Quarterback Darian Mensah still leads the nation with an 80.7% completion rate and has 25 touchdown passes against one interception. Notre Dame has its own absence to manage, though, because leading tackler Drayk Bowen is out with an ankle injury.

Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 in last year’s opener and took the final at-large playoff spot over the Irish. After Saturday, Notre Dame faces only Boston College, SMU and Syracuse, so a loss could leave the Irish outside the field again. Miami at Notre Dame kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.