It’s a big week for the Iowa State Cyclones, who take the field at home for the second-to-last time this season. They will face the Cincinnati Bearcats, a conference rival, in a game that could shape the campaign.

Iowa State sits at 4-5, with wins over the Oklahoma State Cowboys, West Virginia Mountaineers, Bowling Green Falcons, and Southeast Missouri State Redhawks. Their losses have come to the Iowa Hawkeyes, Utah Utes, Arizona Wildcats, BYU Cougars, and Baylor Bears.

Just two wins away from a bowl game, the Cyclones need to pick up a win this week to put their name closer to the milestone they hoped to reach at the start of the season.

But the team in front of them won’t be easy at all. Let’s take a look at how Iowa State will stop Cincinnati.

One key to Iowa State beating Cincinnati

Cincinnati runs a “boring” yet effective offense. It’s a lot about establishing the run game, making simple plays, and finding open receivers at a short distance. It isn’t necessarily pretty football that head coach Scott Satterfield teaches, but it gets the job done, and that’s why the Bearcats are 5-4 with a win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The best way for the Cyclones to take down Cincinnati is by simply slowing down the run game. Led by Cole Tabb, the running back room is elite.

Tabb has put up 812 on the ground this year, quickly becoming one of the most underrated backs in the nation. Behind him is Gi’Bran Payne, who has 556 yards. Even quarterback J.C. French IV has dabbled in the run game, putting up 313 yards of his own. The run game is great, but it is stoppable. And if Iowa State is able to hold them, they should have a solid chance to win.

That’s because the pass game simply isn’t good enough. French IV can make consistent plays and move the ball somewhat well, but he doesn’t gamble enough. It’s always just making the right play to move it just enough. That’s why he’s only thrown three interceptions all year.

It’s a good way to run an offense, but it simply isn’t sustainable away from home. There is a reason the Bearcats are 0-3 on the road, compared to 5-1 at home: It doesn’t work every week, especially when things get tough.

The Cyclones are going into the game favored and have a pretty solid shot at winning the game. If they are able to limit the run and force the pass game to perform, they should be able to take care of business and put themselves slightly closer to reaching the bowl game that they have fought all season for.