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Texas has put itself back in the conversation with consecutive wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State. But the Longhorns have little margin for error in the SEC standings, where several teams remain ahead of them and a handful are packed together on the next line.
The good news is that the path is still open. Texas sits at 3-2 in conference play with four SEC games remaining, meaning a perfect finish would put the Longhorns at 7-2. The bad news is that even winning all four games might not be enough by itself.
And that's where the SEC's tiebreaking procedure could become a major part of Texas' championship equation.
As of Wednesday, Georgia and Kentucky share the SEC lead at 5-1. Alabama and Ole Miss are next at 4-2, while Texas is part of a crowded group at 3-2 alongside LSU, Missouri and Tennessee.
Texas' remaining conference schedule is demanding: road games at Missouri and LSU, followed by home dates against Arkansas and Texas A&M. The Longhorns cannot afford another loss if they want to finish with a realistic chance of reaching the SEC Championship Game.
A 7-2 finish would give Texas a chance to compete for one of the two spots, but the Longhorns also need help. Georgia and Kentucky are currently in front, and Alabama and Ole Miss have fewer conference losses than Texas. Results involving those teams will matter just as much as Texas' own games.
This Saturday's slate is particularly important. Texas needs to beat Missouri, while Alabama and LSU meet in a game that guarantees one of those teams will take another conference loss. Georgia and Ole Miss also play, meaning one of the two teams currently ahead of Texas will absorb a defeat. Kentucky faces Tennessee, another game with direct implications for the crowded standings.
Texas should be rooting for the teams above it to keep taking losses, especially in matchups that prevent multiple contenders from separating themselves.
The SEC's official procedure starts with head-to-head results among tied teams. If that does not settle the matter, the conference moves to record against common SEC opponents, followed by performance against the highest-placed common opponent. The fourth step is cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
That fourth step is the unexpected wrinkle. If several teams finish tied and the first three criteria fail to separate them, the strength of their conference schedules could determine who advances.
Texas cannot control every result involving its opponents, but it can improve its position by winning its remaining games and allowing its SEC schedule to age well. Wins by teams Texas has faced can become relevant if the tiebreaker reaches that stage.
There are additional steps after opponent winning percentage, including capped relative scoring margin against conference opponents and, ultimately, a random draw. That makes it especially important not to assume Texas owns a tiebreaker advantage simply because of its current record or point differential.
The immediate rooting guide is straightforward: beat Missouri, beat LSU, take care of Arkansas and Texas A&M, and hope the teams above Texas continue to lose conference games. The exact tiebreaker outcome will depend on which teams ultimately finish tied and their results against shared opponents.
Texas has given itself a chance with its recent winning streak. But the Longhorns' road to Atlanta is now a combination of winning their own games and watching the SEC standings break in the right direction.