PITTSBURGH — The Pittsburgh Pirates have their most important offseason in more than a decade, and they have to be realistic about what they can achieve.

The Pirates have a strong, young rotation, a solid lineup and a bullpen that could use some additions that would make it formidable and ready for postseason contention.

Pittsburgh also has a projected $100 million payroll, which includes current salaries and arbitration/pre-arbitration projections, before they make any extra moves.

The Pirates must make smart moves, finding the right players and not expending resources on those that don't advance their postseason goal.

Pirates Most Realistic Offseason: What Should Happen

No. 1: Pirates Should Re-Sign Brandon Lowe

There's no doubt that Lowe should be back on the Pirates next season, and even with a competitive market, it's a must for the franchise.

Lowe's left-handed power played well at PNC Park, and he was the best power-hitting second baseman in baseball in 2026.

His defense also made him a National League Gold Glove Award finalist after being a terrible fielder in 2025, and his vocal leadership made him respected in the clubhouse.

The Pirates players spoke in depth about what Lowe means to this team, and the front office/ownership can't make many excuses if they don't get it done.

The three-year, $45 million contract ($15 million AAV) from Jim Bowden of The Athletic is definitely something the Pirates should easily be willing to offer.

Pittsburgh will have to spend more than they ever have this offseason, but doing so on Lowe, even with his age (32) and injury history, should be an easy decision.

No. 2: Pirates Should Trade For 3B Zack Gelof

Third base is clearly an area where the Pirates are lacking, and they have many offseason options they can look at.

Zack Gelof is one name that makes sense for the Pirates with his profile, but also with affordability.

Gelof started 66 of 70 games played at third base for the Athletics in 2026, posting +9 defensive runs saved (DRS), with +1 outs above average (OAA) and +1 fielding run value (FRV).

He also had a strong season at the plate, batting .256/.322/.475 for an OPS of .797 in 111 games, with 101 hits, 16 doubles, 22 home runs and 55 RBI.

Gelof was also successful against left-handed pitching, .286/.342/.543 for an OPS of .885 with seven home runs, something the Pirates need in 2027.

The Pirates could trade for Isaac Paredes of the Houston Astros and veteran Nolan Arenado of the Arizona Diamondbacks, both right-handed power hitters who would bolster their lineup.

Paredes will cost north of $13 million and Arenado, though he costs only $6 million, may not waive his no-trade clause to join the Pirates.

Gelof heads into his first year of arbitration and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to make $2.9 million in 2027.

That's a reasonable salary for the Pirates, while also having two more years of team control before he becomes a free agent at the end of the decade.

Gelof would get the chance to join a team close to postseason contention, and the Pirates could surely afford his services, making him a prime trade target.

Pirates Most Realistic Offseason Moves: What Shouldn't Happen

No. 1: Pirates Shouldn't Trade Mitch Keller

This is likely the move most Pirates fans want to see, but one that could cause more problems than it solves.

Mitch Keller had a poor 2026 season, posting a 5.29 ERA over 22 starts and missing the final two months of the season with a right arm teres major muscle injury.

The Pirates' starting pitcher will make $18.5 million in 2027, the fourth year of his five-year, $77 million contract extension he signed on Feb. 22, 2024.

Keller has seen a decline in his Stuff+ from his All-Star 2023 season to 2026, and there's concern if he can live up to the about $38 million left on his contract.

The Pirates shouldn't trade Keller, because doing so means they still have to add starting pitching depth, which they could already use.

It's unlikely another MLB team takes on Keller's full contract, and teams had little trade interest in him last offseason and at the 2025 trade deadline.

Keller still has value, especially if he can get back to the pitcher who made the Pirates sign him to that contract extension in the first place.

The Pirates do need a veteran starting pitcher, one that can take on innings and doesn't have an extensive injury history, all of which Keller fits.

Pittsburgh has a young rotation with Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler, all of whom can be dominant.

Ashcraft and Jones have had serious injuries, while Skenes and Chandler aren't guaranteed to stay healthy.

Starting pitchers like Keller also cost a similar amount on the free agent market, so even if the Pirates trade him, they would need to use that money on another player.

The Pirates have some intriguing pitching prospects, but none are ready to take on the rigor of a 162-game season.

Giving Keller the confidence to be the pitcher the Pirates expect him to be is the best option at this stage, even if moving his contract is what the team and fans want most at this moment.

No. 2: Pirates Shouldn't Sign Luis Arraez

There is a chance the Pirates don't re-sign Brandon Lowe, which would turn their attention towards other second base options.

Luis Arraez is one of the top free agent second basemen this offseason, and the Pirates could look at him as their next big signing, but they would be better off not doing so.

Arraez has won three batting titles and is almost always among the top players for best batting average.

Like Lowe, Arraez also improved defensively, putting up +12 OAA and +10 FRV, after also being terrible at fielding.

Arraez is a strong hitter, but he provides no power, with just 42 home runs over almost 1,000 MLB games played.

The Pirates need more power, especially if they are going to commit serious salary to a player, and a long-term deal for Arraez doesn't make much sense.

Nick Gonzales can also do a similar job to Arraez, finishing sixth in baseball with a .303 batting average, and won't cost anywhere near as much.

The Pirates should turn their attention towards other infielders that can either hit for power and/or can attack left-handed pitching with great success, if they don't end up re-signing Lowe.