Mercedes are moving closer to securing their ninth Formula 1 Constructors' Championship, having established a commanding advantage over their rivals throughout the 2026 season. With the campaign entering its final six rounds, the Silver Arrows are now approaching the point at which they could mathematically seal the title, but several scenarios remain possible.

The German manufacturer currently leads the standings with 578 points, ahead of Ferrari on 444, McLaren on 339 and Red Bull on 332. Mercedes have claimed 11 victories in the opening 17 Grands Prix, with Kimi Antonelli and George Russell occupying the top two positions in the Drivers' Championship.

A ninth Constructors' Championship would be Mercedes' first since 2021, when the team secured its eighth consecutive title. However, the championship cannot be decided at this weekend's United States Grand Prix, regardless of the results in Austin.

What does Mercedes need to secure the championship?

With six races remaining and no further Sprint events scheduled, a maximum of 258 points is still available in the Constructors' Championship. Each team can collect up to 43 points per Grand Prix by finishing first and second.

Even if Antonelli and Russell secure a one-two finish in Austin while both Ferrari drivers fail to score, Mercedes' advantage would only increase to 177 points. That would not be enough to settle the championship, as 215 points would remain available over the final five rounds.

Mexico City, on 1 November, therefore represents the first mathematical opportunity for Mercedes to claim the title. Following that race, only 172 points will remain available, meaning the Silver Arrows must leave Mexico with an advantage that Ferrari cannot overturn.

Photo: Race Pictures

For Mercedes to achieve that, they would need to extend their current lead by at least 38 points across the United States and Mexican Grands Prix. Even in the most favourable scenario in Austin, with Mercedes scoring 43 points and Ferrari none, the Italian team would still need to be prevented from recovering the deficit in Mexico.

Mercedes have outscored Ferrari by an average of 7.6 points per Grand Prix this season. If that trend continues, the championship could instead be decided at the São Paulo Grand Prix on 8 November, when just 129 points would remain available.

Antonelli could become world champion before Mercedes

While Mercedes must wait until at least Mexico to secure the Constructors' Championship, Antonelli could wrap up the Drivers' title at this weekend's United States Grand Prix.

The Italian currently leads team-mate Russell by 102 points, with Lewis Hamilton a further nine points behind. With 150 points still available across the remaining six races, Antonelli has his first opportunity to secure the championship in Austin.

To do so, the 20-year-old must win the race, with Russell finishing ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth or lower. Such a result would make Antonelli the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history, surpassing Sebastian Vettel's record from 2010.