For the past six seasons, Nikola Jokić has been as reliable as death and taxes for the Nuggets.

Throughout that span, the superstar big man has been consistently one of the most prolific players in the NBA to a historic degree. He led Denver to a title in 2023 and won three MVP awards. Starting with the 2020–21 season, Jokić has averaged 26.9 points per game on 58.3% shooting from the field (37.8% from deep) to go with 12.4 rebounds and 9.3 assists. The Nuggets have averaged 51 wins per season and have won seven playoff series. All the while the Serbian big man has set all kinds of ludicrous records once considered untouchable and put up stat lines we haven’t seen in a half-century.

While most seasons haven’t ended in the success expected of truly great players, Jokić’s greatness has been undeniable—which is why his start to the 2026–27 season is raising eyebrows.

After another offseason of talent drain due to second apron concerns, the first stretch of games this year have been shaky for Denver. The Nuggets are 3–3, with all three wins coming against the West’s lesser teams in the Pelicans (twice) and the Suns. They rank 19th in net rating with the seventh-worst defense in the NBA. In recent history, Nuggets losses have often come despite the best efforts of their leader; Jokić never escaped blame, as is appropriate, but he’d rack up his points, rebounds and assists no matter what.

Not so much this year. How worried should Denver be about that?

Nikola Jokić is off to a rough start this season

As we move forward, keep in mind this is all relative. Jokić’s bad nights are still better than 90% of NBA center’s best nights. But by the standard the three-time MVP himself has set, the first six games of the new year have been bad.

As of Wednesday, Jokić is averaging 22.0 points, 9.7 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game. He’s shooting 47.2% from the field and a brutal 22.6% from three despite taking a career-high 5.2 triples per game. The center, who should be remembered as one of the NBA’s greatest analytical beasts of the modern era, is even struggling in that department; the Nuggets are posting a -0.33 net rating per 100 possessions in his 222 minutes on the floor thus far (per PBP Stats). Last season? That number was +10.81.

The eye test matches his statistical decline. Jokić isn’t forcing teams to deal with bully ball down low, where his ethereal touch has tortured defenders for years. That allows him to get back on defense a little quicker and conserve energy, which has its benefits, but controlling the paint offensively is the primary way he can offset his flaws on the other end. When he’s content to hang back and act as a top-of-key distributor... well, Jokić is still really good. But not MVP-level dominant.

Due to how the Nuggets have mismanaged the roster around him, that’s the level Jokić must perform at to win games at a high level—and they may finally have hit a breaking point. They’re asking him to be the fulcrum of the offense while playing 37 minutes per game on the heels of three consecutive seasons averaging at least 34 minutes per night. The miles may simply be catching up and the Serbian big man is attempting to compensate by throttling back the effort when he can. It’s a strange sight after many years of watching Jokić play an obscene number of minutes with tireless effort borne from a seemingly bottomless gas tank.

How concerned should the Nuggets be?

Not very concerned. Yet.

National pundits like Bill Simmons have already wondered aloud if we’re witnessing the beginning of the end for Jokić’s time at the top of the food chain. It’s not unfair to do so at this stage when pairing the start of the season to how he looked post-knee injury in 2025–26 and the disastrous playoff series loss to the Timberwolves.

Simultaneously, though, the superstar center has earned the benefit of the doubt. These past six games have been strange to see from Jokić, to be sure. Almost unsettling given how consistent his greatness has been. But Denver is still experimenting with a new rotation after overhauling the bench (again). David Adelman is leaning heavy on his stars as a result. Should he find a pattern he likes, he’ll presumably lessen the pressure on Jokić and Jamal Murray to do everything for this roster each night, and that should result in increasing returns, if somewhat marginal.

Even with that reasonable line of logic and the body of proof Jokić can offer, every decision Denver has made in recent years is built on the foundation that the franchise’s superstar big man can be leaned on as heavily as any player in the NBA. That asking the world of Jokić was a winning strategy without significant cost. If that tide is changing, everything looks different going forward for the Nuggets.

Through that lens, they better hope this is more of a blip on the radar than a new standard.

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