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The Jaguars look like one of the NFL’s elite teams, and the best is yet to come
Jacksonville Jaguars v Baltimore Ravens Getty Images
(Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Early in the second quarter of Thursday night’s game between the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars and the Baltimore Ravens, the home team had Trevor Lawrence and company in a precarious position, thanks in large part to Kyle Hamilton. After a punt pinned Jacksonville deep in their own territory, a tremendous individual tackle from Hamilton on running back Bhayshul Tuten pushed the Jaguars back to their own 1-yard line, and after a short run, the visitors faced 3rd and 7 on their own 7-yard line.

Hamilton looked poised to deliver another big play, lining up in the A-gap before the snap. A stop here would force Jacksonville to punt in a game the Jaguars led 10-3, and the ensuing field position might be enough to give the depleted Baltimore offense a chance to tie the game.

At the snap, Lawrence looked quickly to his left and Parker Washington near the first-down marker. But Hamilton, instead of blitzing, had dropped into coverage to take that read away from Lawrence.

The quarterback quickly reset, hit Jakobi Meyers on a deeper in-cut to move the chains, finding an answer for what Baltimore and Hamilton threw at him.

Final score: Jacksonville 33, Baltimore 10.

One more example of Lawrence and the Jaguars finding an answer for what teams have thrown at them so far this season.

The win moved Jacksonville to 6-2 on the season, four games clear of the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts in the win column in the AFC South. A division title seems all but assured at this point, with the Colts likely finishing off a fire sale ahead of Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline and the Texans facing six of their last ten games on the road. In fact at least one playoff simulator, from The Athletic, gives the Jaguars a 98% chance of making the playoffs (and a 71% chance of hosting a Wild Card game as a division winner), and Jacksonville has the league’s easiest remaining schedule, with just three games against teams with winning records left on the slate.

However, there are a few bits of evidence one can point to that illustrate that the Jaguars are poised for something much, much more than a division title.

To start, Jacksonville’s 33-10 win over Baltimore came on the heels of a 42-7 win over the Colts in Week 8, the biggest scoring margin in a game this season. While both of those teams are reeling, those games are part of the reason why the Jaguars lead the NFL in scoring differential (+108). That is 50 points better than any other team (the San Francisco 49ers are second with a +58 scoring differential. The Jaguars have won four games by 21 points or more — a 24-point win over the Cleveland Browns and a 29-point win over the New England Patriots, in addition to the wins the last two weeks over Indianapolis and Baltimore.

No other team has more than one such victory.

Jacksonville also leads the NFL in turnover margin, at +9 on the year. And while much has been said and written about what Brian Flores and the Minnesota Vikings are doing on defense, the Jaguars are right behind them when it comes to scoring defense. Minnesota leads the way, allowing just 13.3 points per game, but Jacksonville is second in that statistic, giving up just 15.1 points per game this year.

But wait, there’s more.

Looking at Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) value on both sides of the ball, as our friend Justis Mosqueda does each week, the Jaguars stand out as the best team in the AFC, and one of the best teams in the NFL:

And if you look at “Team Tiers” as measured by RBSDM, which examines Expected Points Added on both offense and defense, the Jaguars are certainly in a class by themselves in the AFC, and are side-by-side with the NFC’s best. This is after Week 8

And here is that graphic updated after Thursday night’s blowout of the Ravens:

The difference is subtle, but thanks to what the Jaguars defense did against Joe Fagnano, Jacksonville inched ahead of the 49ers in this metric.

Certainly, a big part of the story is Lawrence. As illustrated by Mosqueda’s ANY/A value, the Jaguars offense is among the league’s best passing games. The Jacksonville quarterback, as illustrated in the start to this piece, has found many answers this season. He has completed 65.2% of his passes for 1,932 yards and 18 touchdowns — against only four interceptions — and he leads all NFL passers in ANY/A with a mark of 8.5, ahead of Brock Purdy’s 8.4 and Jared Goff’s 8.0.

In addition, Lawrence also leads the league in NFL Passer Rating (111.7), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (9.4), and touchdown percentage (8%). He is also third in the NFL in EPA/dropback, behind only Josh Allen and Purdy.

It is at this point that we feel compelled to mention that Lawrence is currently fourth in MVP odds at +600 according to FanDuel, behind Allen (+160), Joe Burrow (+450), and Purdy (+550). You know, for research and evidentiary purposes …

But another part of this story is Liam Coen. Since taking over in Jacksonville, Coen and the Jaguars are 19-6, good for a winning percentage of .750. While Coen’s start last year was rather rocky — and we are not referring to the awkward “Duval” chant at his introductory press conference but rather the Jaguars’ 4-3 start to the year — since Jacksonville’s bye week a season ago the Jaguars are 15-3.

That also stands out.

Speaking after the win Thursday night, Lawrence credited the team’s ability to start fast, and not let up.

“It’s just guys being ready to play from the jump,” said Lawrence. “I’ve been on teams before where it’s like we don’t necessarily start as fast and we play better in the second half or whatever. This team, we’re just ready to go from the jump. It’s something that I think is really important not to get yourself in a hole early, and that’s something that we’ve done a good job of.”

At the NFL’s midway point, Coen and company have found all the answers they have needed, placing themselves among the league’s elite.

And putting the Jaguars on a path to even bigger things in January, and beyond.

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