The Cowboys’ demolition of the Eagles put a bow on Week 7. I’ve updated the spreadsheets and calibrated the models once again. These are the 10 takeaways from Week 7 you need to know.

1) J.J. McCarthy does it again

I was extremely skeptical of the repeatability of J.J. McCarthy’s Week 6 explosion. Though he didn’t technically hit from a fantasy perspective on Sunday, it was still another impressive outing for the former Viking. McCarthy averaged nine yards per attempt with an aDOT over 10 once again. He completed 71.4 percent of his passes and Pro Football Focus credited him with three Big Time Throws and zero Turnover-Worthy Plays. On the year, McCarthy ranks 25th in accurate throw rate. Pro Football Focus has deemed 57.5 percent of his passes as accurate. That’s in line with Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Dak Prescott. Jameis Winston, on the other hand, is dead last with a 43 percent accurate throw rate.

I’m still unsure that this production from “NINE” is stable. In fact, I’d bet the under on 10.1 yards per attempt—his current mark—for the rest of the season. On the other hand, it’s hard not to view him as an upgrade over Winston at this point.

2) Same old Chiefs

The addition of Kenneth Walker was supposed to revive the Chiefs’ downfield passing attack. Instead, it just made them a better rushing team, with almost no effect on Patrick Mahomes’ ability to throw deep.

Mahomes is throwing deep far less often, but is having more success by yards per pass attempt. However, that was only true when Tyquan Thornton was healthy. Since Thornton went down in Week 4, Mahomes is averaging 11.4 YPA on deep shots. Much like the deep game, you can squint and say Mahomes’ short game is better this year, but a wide receiver injury has derailed that as well. Rashee Rice only recorded stats in his first three games. Over the next month, Mahomes’ YPA on short passes is down to 6.8.

All of these changes net out to a higher YPA this year but a low EPA per play, though neither is a massive swing. From a fantasy perspective, the biggest difference has been the rushing. Mahomes is down to 11.8 rushing yards per game, the lowest mark of his career. He’s averaging 3.7 yards per carry, which is also the lowest mark of his career. The last time he was below even five was 2018. My GOAT is currently the QB18 by points per game.

3) Bijan Robinson falling behind

Robinson is currently the RB3, and it somehow feels like a mistake to have drafted him. On a points-per-game basis, Robinson is being out-scored by 5-of-12 first-round picks by August ADP. Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey are also less than a point per game behind him. The difference between Robinson’s 2026 numbers and his RB1 overall season last year is receiving output.

For reference, Robinson averaged 10.4 PPR points from receiving production alone in 2025. Robinson was used as an extra wide receiver—in the slot or out wide—on 29 percent of his routes. That’s down to 19 percent in 2026. Much more importantly, he is being stuck with pass protection duties on 29 percent of his passing plays. That number was 15 percent in 2025. Robinson is still heavily involved in the pass game, but he’s not quite the weapon he was last year. What do we do with this information? I don’t know. If I were drafting a fantasy team today, I would take Kenneth Walker ahead of him. There’s also a conversation to be had about taking Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown over him. If you need a receiver and can get one of those two and something else in return, I would pull the trigger.

4) TreVeyon Henderson’s role evaporates

It’s looking quite over for the former second-round pick. Over the past three weeks, Corey Kiner, on top of Rhamondre Stevenson, has out-carried Henderson.

Kiner doesn’t get on the field for routes, which would normally be a relief, but Henderson isn’t seeing many passing downs opportunities either. He’s also giving the Pats zero reasons to put him on the field. Stevenson and Kiner are both averaging more yards after contact and rush yards over expected per carry. They also have better breakaway run rates, which is supposed to be Henderson’s speciality. Henderson broke a 39-yard touchdown in Week 2 and hasn’t gone for more than 11 yards on a single carry since. He has become a true roster clogger. You can’t even play him in the FLEX, but you can’t send him to the waiver wire either.

5) Josh Jacobs returns to action

Jacobs was back this week after a six-game stint on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. The Packers treated him like a workhorse back, but they didn’t change their approach on offense. They had a +6.4 percent pass rate over expected.

Their rate of +3.8 percent was one of the highest marks in the league before Week 7 and they showed no signs of slowing down versus Detroit, though it’s worth noting that the Lions are the league’s premier pass funnel. It’s possible the Packers move back toward a balanced approach as the season wears on, but the Panthers, their Week 8 opponent, are also a clear pass funnel.

Even if Green Bay doesn’t return to a run-first offense, Jacobs’ role is already worth an RB1 ranking. He saw 61 percent of the team’s carries and ran 43 percent of the routes, both of which are in line with his 2025 marks. Most importantly, Jacobs earned 17 percent of Jordan Love’s targets. He hasn’t had a target share over 10 percent in two seasons as a Packer.

6) Bo Nix goes deep, it does not matter

The Broncos tried something new in Week 7. Nix finally started to unleash his deep ball, registering an 11.3 aDOT, which was the highest mark of the week until Dak Prescott bested him on Monday night. It was also Nix’s highest aDOT of the year and just his second time averaging more than six air yards per attempt. Did it work? Denver’s 30 points on the scoreboard would suggest it did. I don’t buy it. Nix attempted eight deep shots on Sunday. He connected on one of them.

In terms of what did work, it was largely another dink-and-dunk effort from Nix. He is now 25th in completion rate on deep throws (31.8 percent) and 28th in YPA on these throws (9.6). He is well outside the top 30 quarterbacks in both metrics on throws 10-19 yards downfield. Nix isn’t even in the top-20 in either metric when looking at throws 1-9 yards downfield. The only area where he looks like an above-average thrower is behind the line of scrimmage.

7) Quarterback turnover luck

Typically, a quarterback makes plenty of mistakes that may result in a turnover, but the defense only capitalizes on some of those errors. On rare occasions, a quarterback makes a good throw that should not wind up in the defense’s hands but does, like in the instance of a receiver tipping a ball to a defender. PFF’s Turnover Worthy Play predicts future turnovers better than the quarterback’s previous turnovers because it helps strip out the noise of whether an interception is caught or a fumble is recovered. No one has informed Bryce Young or Tyler Shough of this fact. They are the only quarterbacks in the league with more turnovers than Turnover Worthy Plays.

Young has more interceptions (four) alone than Turnover Worthy Plays (three). Shough, on the other hand, needed his three lost fumbles to cross the 1:1 rubicon. Both players are running cold on turnover luck, though Young comfortably takes the cake with a conversion rate of 167 percent.

8) Tony Pollard claws his way back

Through six games, Pollard was the league’s worst running back at converting expected fantasy points into actual points. His -23.5 FPOE was the worst among all running backs and it wasn’t close. Pollard didn’t make it all back in Week 7, but got halfway there with 13.3 fantasy points over expected. His touchdowns from 10 and 36 yards out make up the bulk of the points over expected, though a one-yard score doesn’t hurt either.

There were four running backs with -15 FPOE or worse entering Week 7. All four beat their expected point total on Sunday and three finished as RB1s. Ashton Jeanty finally returned a positive day in the over expectation department, though it was only his strong performance as a receiver that got him in the black. He was still under his expectation as a runner. Quinshon Judkins scored twice and posted the second-best FPOE day of Week 7, beating his expected total by 12.6 en route to an RB3 overall finish. Even J.K. Dobbins, who was tied with Jeanty for the second-worst FPOE mark headed into Sunday’s games, went positive, though his fantasy score was negligible.

Chase Brown is now the league’s “leader” in points under expected. Samaje Perine earned a season-low snap share in Week 7, hopefully meaning he won’t be a huge threat to Brown going forward. Brown strikes me as an obvious buy low.

9) Easy-button usage

I wrote all the way back in Week 2 that the Raiders, Colts, Bill, and Bucs were pressing the easy buttons (play action, motion, and throwing against stacked boxes) more than most other teams. These are far from the only schematic advantages coaches can create, even among the subset that are easily filtered into a spreadsheet. They are, however, a high-level look at which coaches give their quarterbacks the bread-and-butter edges of a modern passing game. After aggregating the rates of my three easy-button calls, the Bills and Colts still come out as the two highest teams. The Raiders remain inside the top 10 while the Bucs are using motion at a high rate but couldn’t be bothered with the other two. That, however, may ultimately come down to game script. If you fall behind early, play action loses some of its luster.

The Dolphins also stick out as easy-button spammers. This, however, likely comes down to their split of run and passes. Miami is the most run-heavy team in the NFL by pass rate over expected.

Even when Miami’s non-stop ground game lulls defenses asleep, the passing attack hasn’t been particularly effective. The Dolphins are a below-average offense by EPA per play when using play action and when throwing into stacked boxes.

10) Playing on hard mode

On the other hand, some coaches simply forgo all the bells and whistles and play the lord’s game. The Giants use motion at the lowest rate in the NFL. They have the eighth-lowest play-action rate and they almost never throw into stacked boxes. The last of those comes down to their personnel. Isaiah Likely is running 5.1 percent of his routes from an inline position. He is just an extra receiver, meaning even with Theo Johnson on the field the Giants can’t realistically use 12-personnel to draw defenders into the box. There’s not as obvious of an excuse for their lack of motion and play-action.

The next three teams at the bottom of the list in easy button usage are the Titans, Bengals, and Steelers. For Cincy and Pittsburgh, the quarterback is the system. They stand in the pocket and rip 40 passes per game. Ethical hooping at its finest.

The Titans don’t have that luxury, yet they insist on making life hard for Cam Ward. Brian Daboll has been an NFL head coach or offensive coordinator for 13 years. He has overseen three above-average scoring offenses. Two came with Josh Allen. The third saw New York rank 15th in points per game. Daboll’s median finish on offense is 29th in points per game.