Needing a win to keep her WTA Finals hopes intact, Coco Gauff takes on Marta Kostyuk in her final group match on Thursday.

The 2024 winner of this event is 1-1 this year, losing to Linda Noskova on Tuesday 6-3 6-3, while Kostyuk was eliminated after a 2-6 5-7 defeat to Jessica Pegula.

Match preview

There is only pride to play for on Marta Kostyuk’s part as she aims to win her first ever match in this tournament and potentially end Gauff’s hopes of a second title.

The Ukrainian, who only found out last Saturday that she was in this event, has struggled to handle opposing serves, converting a mere three break points in her two outings overall.

While she has only given up three aces combined in those two matches, she has registered 15 double faults in all, which is part of the reason she is going home early.

In her final group encounter of this event, she will hope to snap a three-match losing run in singles matches at the Indian Wells Gardens, having failed to capture a single set over that stretch.

To this stage of the tournament, the Ukrainian has won fewer than 25 receiving points while also losing 34 to Pegula earlier this week.

At the same time, she has not won more than five service games in either match while winning fewer than 70% of her second serves in both of her contests.

It is now or never for Coco Gauff in the WTA Finals, after failing to follow up her thrilling opening-round victory with a positive result on Tuesday.

The American was at times her own worst enemy against Noskova, registering eight double faults while giving up 13 in her last two matches altogether.

Despite converting her only two break point opportunities on Tuesday, Gauff was broken five times herself, while conceding nine break points overall in her two matches.

She has hit 12 aces in her two matches overall but has given up 30 or more receiving points in each of her two outings.

Gauff has lost her last WTA Finals group matches in each of the past two years, falling to Aryna Sabalenka a year ago.

In her two matches played thus far, she has won 41 service points overall while giving up nearly 100.

Tournament so far

Marta Kostyuk:

First match: vs. Linda Noskova 2-6 4-6

Second match: vs. Jessica Pegula 2-6 5-7

Coco Gauff:

First match: vs. Jessica Pegula 6-4 6-7 (5-7) 6-2

Second match: vs. Linda Noskova 3-6 3-6

Head To Head

Adelaide International (2022) - Round of 16: Gauff wins 3-6 7-5 6-3

Australian Open (2024) - Quarter-finals: Gauff wins 7-6 6-7 6-2

Stuttgart Open (2024) - Quarter-finals: Kostyuk wins 3-6 6-4 7-6

Wuhan Open (2024) - Round of 16: Gauff wins 6-4 6-1

Qatar Open (2025) - Round of 32: Kostyuk wins 6-2 7-5

Cincinnati Open (2026) - Quarter-finals: Gauff wins 6-2 6-2

Gauff showed plenty of fight in her first meeting with Kostyuk, coming from a set down to win, showing her power in the latter stages.

In Australia two years later, Gauff won another close three-set affair against the Ukrainian, collecting nine break points en route to victory.

It was Kostyuk’s turn to come from behind and win in Germany later that year as she won 61% of her second serves and overcame 10 double faults.

In China, Gauff beat Kostyuk by winning 80% of her first serves, without a single double fault.

The following year, it was Kostyuk’s turn to pull out a win, claiming 75% of her second serves in Qatar, along with five break points.

Earlier this year in Cincinnati, Gauff had no problem against Kostyuk, winning 78% of her first serves and 34 receiving points in a straightforward triumph.

We say: Gauff to win in two sets

Although all the pressure is on her, Gauff often plays her best when her back is up against the wall, and we believe Kostyuk is far too error-prone and timid, which may cost her once again.