It’s been a rollercoaster season for Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns. Manning entered the season as the projected No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft and hasn’t lived up to the hype, forcing his draft stock to fall. With that, Kalshi’s college football market opened on a potential transfer and what his next team will be.

Manning is favored to transfer to Georgia with a 61% chance while Texas has the second-highest price at 50%. Kalshi settles the market on which team Manning transfers to by February 2, 2027. A $10 trade profits $5.95 if he transfers to Georgia and $9.96 if he remains at Texas.

Arch Manning next team - Kalshi

• Georgia 61%
• Stays at Texas 50%
• Declares for NFL Draft 32%
• Ole Miss 8%
• Tennessee 2%

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A Bulldog after all

Going back to Arch Manning’s recruitment, his finalists came down to Texas, Georgia, and Alabama. At 2025 SEC Media Day, Manning fueled the fire about how close he was to choosing Georgia or Alabama during his recruitment.

“I was kind of down to the wire between Georgia, here (Texas), and Alabama.”

With Gunner Stockton in his final season, Manning would step in as Georgia’s starter. Behind Stockton are Ryan Puglisi, Ryan Montgomery, and Hezekiah Millender.

Why a transfer makes sense

Kalshi gives Texas a 50% chance to keep him, but a fresh start could benefit Manning. So far this season, Manning has gone for 1,727 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Those numbers don’t match the hype of a former top overall recruit. 

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian also doesn’t have a great history of developing QBs. Hudson Card, Casey Thompson, Maalik Murphy, and Quinn Ewers have all started games under Sark. None of them have gone on to successful NFL careers, though Ewers is still playing.

Keeping it in the family

Ole Miss and Tennessee appear mainly as family ties, with his uncles Eli and Peyton playing at both schools. Ole Miss could make its case with current starting QB Trinidad Chambliss playing out the final year of his eligibility. The fit at Tennessee could be shaky with Faizon Brandon being a top-3 QB recruit in the 2026 class.

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