Week 10 has been circled on the calendar since before the start of the college football season. Saturday is littered with massive games, headlined by Miami at Notre Dame, Oregon at Ohio State, Alabama at LSU and Georgia at Mississippi.

The week will have a significant impact on the College Football Playoff race—fresh off of the first round of selection committee rankings released Tuesday—as well as the Heisman race. Can Ohio State’s offense take a step in its second game without Julian Sayin, and reestablish Jeremiah Smith as the nation’s most dangerous weapon? Will Miami beat Notre Dame for a second straight season on the strength of the incredible Darian Mensah–Malachi Toney connection, or will CJ Carr come through with a signature performance? Does Trinidad Chambliss have the magic to lead an upset of No. 2 Georgia? 

Week 10 will be unbelievably consequential, and I cannot wait. Here’s where things stand in the Heisman race heading into this huge slate of games.

The Heisman favorites

1. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (6–2); Last week: No. 1—Holding at the top, but this is now a race

Week 9: Lost to USC, 30–18—10 receptions, 83 yards, one TD
Season: 62 receptions, 1,067 yards, 13 TDs; two carries, seven yards

Smith and the Buckeyes felt the impact of Sayin’s absence on Saturday. He was still extremely productive, catching 10-of-13 targets for 83 yards and the program’s only receiving touchdown of the game. The difference was pretty stark, especially accounting for what has been a very weak USC passing defense this season. Freshman quarterback Luke Fahey was not terrible by any stretch in his first start, but the Buckeyes struggled to push the ball down the field, finishing with just three explosive plays in the passing game (the team had double that number against a much better Iowa defense a few weeks ago). 

I’ve tried to avoid being a prisoner of the moment in these rankings week-to-week, and Smith remains the best player in college football. He sticks at No. 1 for another week. There’s also a decent chance that Fahey develops into a reliable passer down the stretch, even against tough competition, and Smith avoids seeing his production slip much. If he helps lead the Sayin-less Buckeyes to the College Football Playoff, he should absolutely remain on the top of this list, but we’ll have to wait and see how things progress for Ohio State.

2. Malachi Toney, WR, Miami (8–0); LW: No. 2—The key to the Hurricanes offense

Week 9: Beat North Carolina, 38–35—seven receptions, 75 yards, two TDs; one carry, 11 yards
Season: 72 receptions, 1,027 yards, 13 TDs; four carries, 61 yards

As I wrote last week, Toney is as important to The U’s attack as Smith is to Ohio State’s. His outing against the Tar Heels was among his quietest of the season … and he still caught touchdown passes on Miami’s first and last scoring drives of the day. Toney’s incredible ability after the catch is the secret sauce that makes this offense hum, even without a tremendous amount of explosiveness (the Canes rank 68th nationally in the metric, tied with the oft-bemoaned Texas offense). Miami thrives on a short, mistake-free, accurate passing game, with Toney’s ability to translate that into big plays the key to the team’s 8–0 start and No. 1 ranking. If Smith falters without Sayin, right now Toney should be the player to take his place as Heisman favorite.

3. Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (8–0); LW: No. 3—Elite numbers, but with a caveat

Week 9: Beat North Carolina, 38–35—22 for 29, 274 yards, three TDs; four carries, 36 yards
Season: 188 for 233 (80.7%%), 2,425 yards, 25 TDs, one INT; 24 carries, 109 yards, two TDs

Mensah’s numbers have been excellent by any metric. The quarterback of an undefeated team averaging 10.4 yards per attempt with a completion percentage over 80% and 25 touchdowns to just one interception is certainly Heisman-worthy. But in a year with two historic wide receivers, one of whom is on Mensah’s team, I have a tough time putting him at No. 1—where the current betting odds have him.

As mentioned above, Toney’s ability after the catch really unlocks the offense, while Mensah serves as an effective distributor to keep the offense moving. Mensah is ninth nationally in passing yardage but just 87th in air yards and 124th in average depth of target (6.9 yards) among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. He’s been elite at what he’s been asked to do, and would be a fine Heisman winner, but he’s also playing within a quarterback-friendly system.

The next tier

4. Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Mississippi (6–2); LW: No. 5—Starting to “cut it loose”

Week 9: Beat Auburn, 45–15—22 for 34, 263 yards, two TDs, one INT; seven carries, 65 yards, one TD
Season: 189 for 296 (63.9%), 2,189 yards, 18 TDs, eight INTs; 48 carries, 199 yards, seven TDs

After a tough performance in Ole Miss’s loss to Texas, coach Pete Golding had a simple message for Chambliss: “Cut it loose.” After a slow start, which included his fourth interception in two weeks, he did just that. 

After Auburn cut the Rebels lead to 17–15 with a touchdown midway through the third quarter, Chambliss led four consecutive touchdown drives to put the game away. The dangerous dual-threat QB has been a bit loath to use his legs this year, rushing for more than 14 yards just twice this season, but he opened up that part of his game on Saturday, carrying the ball seven times for a season-high 65 yards and a touchdown. It’s the kind of free and loose play that Golding has to be thrilled to see.

5. Jesse Legree, WR, Oregon State (5–3); No. 4—The first “down” week of his college career

Week 9: Lost to Fresno State, 38–22—seven receptions, 70 yards
Season: 53 receptions, 1,110 yards, 14 touchdowns

The standard that Legree set for himself through his first seven games was impossibly high, as evidenced by the fact that he still leads the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns (with Smith and Toney right behind him). He was bound to have a game like this at some point—still a very respectable outing, but the first of his career in which he finished shy of 100 yards and failed to score a touchdown. Legree is still having an All-American-type campaign, but with two other elite wide receivers contending for the award and his Beavers slipping out of range of a chance to steal a CFP bid with a third loss, he may have to settle for a mere historic true freshman season as a largely unrecruited player.

6. CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame (6–1); LW: No. 7—This is the week

Week 9: Beat Navy, 35–13—19 for 29, 210 yards, two TDs; two carries, four yards
Season: 148 for 222 (66.7%), 1,849 yards, 18 TDs, one INT; 25 carries, 86 yards, three TDs

The Fighting Irish got a real scare early on against the Midshipmen, and led just 14–13 at the half. They avoided disaster by outscoring their longtime rivals 21–0 in the second half, but the game was pretty indicative of the concerns around Notre Dame’s competition this year.

Their true potential as a playoff team—and Carr’s as a Heisman contender—rests on next week’s game against Miami, the best team that the Irish will face in the regular season. Without a huge performance in that one, Carr probably won’t remain on the board here.

The long shot quarterbacks

7. Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State (5–3); LW: No. 6—Big numbers, but not enough wins

Week 9: Lost to Iowa State, 51–49—27 for 42, 323 yards, five TDs, one INT; four carries, 16 yards
Season: 184 for 281 (65.5%), 2,649 yards, 25 TDs, seven INTs; 33 carries, 166 yards, two TDs

The loss to Iowa State certainly shouldn’t be pinned on Mestemaker, after he threw for five touchdowns and 49 points, but his numbers aren’t so overwhelming that he’ll be able to score a Robert Griffin III–type Heisman victory on a team that might not win 10 games. He should receive his share of votes with a strong finish, and he’s making waves in the NFL draft world, but the Heisman is almost out of reach.

8. Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama (6–2); LW: No. 9: Can he make a post-bye push?

Week 9: Bye (Week 10: at LSU)
Season: 148 for 221 (67.5%), 2,057 yards, 15 TDs, five INTs; 66 carries, 251 yards, five TDs

A few weeks ago, Russell looked like he might find himself in New York, at the very least. The long college football season is a grind, though, and it has worn on the first-year Crimson Tide starter, who struggled in losses to Georgia and Tennessee, before a nice bounceback performance against a poor Texas A&M team. Last week’s bye came at a good time, setting up Russell for a highly publicized showdown with LSU. Put up big numbers and beat Lane Kiffin’s Tigers, and Russell likely remains a factor.

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