The NBA’s investigation into Gary Trent Jr.’s four-year, $64 million contract with the Milwaukee Bucks has hung over the franchise since July. The question now is what a ruling against the team would mean for a club that has opened the season 1-10.

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst is the latest to weigh in. On a recent episode of The Hoop Collective with ESPN colleagues Tim MacMahon and Bobby Marks, he made clear that people around the league expect the case to go against the Bucks. The group also walked through what that could cost the Bucks, from draft picks to suspensions.

Where Brian Windhorst Sees the Gary Trent Jr. Investigation Heading

A league spokesperson told ESPN’s Shams Charania on July 16 that the NBA was investigating the deal for possible salary cap circumvention. That was the same day the contract was made official and sent to the league, and no finding or penalty has been announced since.

The three were discussing the future of general manager Jon Horst, and whether his job could open, when Windhorst laid out what people around the league expect: “Jon Horst is facing a disastrous situation with this team where he might be getting suspended… Everybody in the league expects a guilty finding in Gary Trent. If that doesn’t happen, it will be an upset… it could be potentially the worst general manager opening in decades.”

Windhorst struck a more cautious note in July, as the investigation became public: “Now, proving anything here would be difficult. You would need some sort of paper trail documentation, and the league may not be able to find anything on it.”

The prospect of a guilty finding left one fan with a blunt assessment: “Bucks are royally screwed.”

Another fan went a step further: “The Bucks are 100% guilty here,” which cannot be declared until the league’s investigation determines as such.

Trent signed with the Bucks for the league minimum in the summer of 2024 and averaged 11.1 points on 43% shooting in his first season with the team.

He then signed a two-year, $7.5 million deal that paid him $3.7 million in 2025-26 and gave the Bucks his early Bird rights, which allow a team to re-sign a player even when it is over the salary cap.

His scoring slipped to 8.1 points on 38.7% shooting last season, his weakest numbers since a 15-game rookie season in Portland in 2018-19. After declining his player option this summer, he returned on a deal that pays him $15.2 million this season, more than four times his 2025-26 salary.

The NBA is investigating whether there was an impermissible prior agreement. Executives with other teams had seen Trent’s return to Milwaukee coming well before it happened, sources told ESPN, because he spent last season playing for less than he was seen to be worth around the league. At least one club wanted to acquire him in a sign-and-trade.

The deal itself was the sticking point for one fan: “On one hand, the Bucks are obviously guilty of circumvention. If punished they can only blame themselves. On another hand, the crime netted them…the dumbest contract in NBA history? So dumb that the only evidence of their crime is how dumb the contract is.”

The NBA has punished a secret agreement before. Joe Smith’s 2000 case is the closest precedent. The Minnesota Timberwolves had promised Smith in writing an extension worth millions over several years, set to start in 2001-02, and, after its investigation, the league voided the contract and imposed penalties.

Marks laid out what that history could mean for the Bucks: “…we can go back to Minnesota with Joe Smith… if they are found guilty, there are going to be draft picks stripped and people are going to be suspended indefinitely for a long time here.”

The prospect of losing picks over Trent’s deal stood out to one fan, who said, “They about to become extra poverty over ‘Gary Trent Jr.'”

Another fan focused on the scale of what Marks described: “Draft picks stripped and indefinite suspensions? That’s not a nightmare. That’s a basketball apocalypse!”

Those possible penalties reach Horst, whom Windhorst said might be suspended. One fan put the blame for the Bucks’ position on Horst himself: “Horst should be run out of town. This, the coaching carousel, Giannis’ three brothers on the team, the Lillard trade. He has ruined the Bucks.”

The Bucks fell to 1-10 with Tuesday’s 117-85 loss to the New York Knicks, leaving them 15th in the Eastern Conference. They host the Los Angeles Lakers at Fiserv Forum on Wednesday night, and the league’s investigation into Trent’s contract is still open.