No. 9 BYU’s Big 12 title hopes and College Football Playoff standing both ride on Saturday’s Holy War at No. 3 Utah, two weeks after a double-overtime loss at UCF ended the Cougars’ unbeaten run.

Former Alabama coach Nick Saban, now an ESPN analyst, made the stakes clear Saturday morning on College GameDay. “Well, I think this is a must-win for BYU, and I think it’s going to be really critical to get off to a really good start in this game,” Saban said.

Why must BYU beat Utah?

Utah is 8-0 and 5-0 in Big 12 play, while BYU is 7-1 and 4-1. A Utes win would put them two games ahead of the Cougars in the conference standings with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand.

BYU debuted at No. 9 in Tuesday’s first College Football Playoff rankings, two spots below its AP Poll ranking, and Notre Dame, the Cougars’ signature win, landed at No. 11.

BYU hasn’t played like a top-10 team since that 28-24 win over the Fighting Irish. UCF piled up 463 yards in Orlando, and BYU coach Kalani Sitake took the blame afterward. “These mistakes shouldn’t be happening midseason,” Sitake said. “That’s on me.”

The Cougars followed with a 27-20 win over Arizona State in which they ran for 47 yards on 29 carries.

Utah’s first-quarter dominance under Scalley

Saban pointed to the number that has defined Utah’s season. “Utah has outscored their opponents 89-6 in the first quarter,” Saban said. “So on the road, you really don’t want to get in there and get behind, let the crowd get into it.”

That 83-point margin leads the nation, and no team at college football’s top level has allowed fewer first-quarter points. The Utes scored touchdowns on their opening drive in each of their first six games, and they led Cincinnati 42-6 at halftime last week before winning 49-25.

Utah owns the nation’s longest active winning streak at 14 games and is 8-0 for the first time since 2010 in Utah coach Morgan Scalley’s first season. Quarterback Devon Dampier is 18-2 as the starter, and the Utes’ offense ranks eighth nationally in success rate, which measures how consistently an offense stays ahead of the chains.

Still, Scalley kept the rivalry in perspective this week. “This is a big one. It’s not the big one,” Scalley said.

Utah hasn’t beaten BYU since a 30-12 win in Provo in 2019, and the Cougars won 24-21 last October to extend their series streak to three games.

How much can LJ Martin help?

LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, has missed four games since a lower-body injury against TCU on Oct. 3. He still leads the Cougars with 344 rushing yards on 7.8 yards per carry.

Martin was listed as doubtful on Wednesday’s availability report, but ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported Saturday that he’ll play. Thamel reported earlier in the week that Martin wouldn’t be at full strength if he returned, so quarterback Bear Bachmeier is still likely to carry much of the offense.

BYU’s defense, which gave up 10 explosive plays at UCF, will also be without defensive end Vincent Tautua and cornerback Jonathan Kabeya against Dampier and the Utes.

Sitake has embraced the pressure. “I know there’s a high sense of urgency. That’s what I love about this game,” Sitake said.

BYU and Utah kick off at noon ET Saturday on ABC at Rice-Eccles Stadium.