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4 winning NFL teams lack consistent fantasy football options — but will that change?

There's a taco joint near my house that I keep finding myself in every other week. The fish tacos are perfect. The salsa has just the right kick. But it's just missing … something. Maybe a tostada. I could go for some flautas right now, actually. Anyway, if they had that thing, as far as Ohio cuisine goes, I'd put it up against anyone's spot (and promptly get laughed at). 

That's how I feel about a handful of NFL teams right now. We were just talking about Jaxon Smith-Njigba being the only reliable fantasy option in Seattle on Monday. But his situation isn't unique. The Vikings, Chiefs, Browns and Patriots are all winning games, and even they limit our trust to maybe one or two guys. After that, it gets murky.

So, let's look at who else in these offenses could give us a little bit more.

Vi-Kings of the North

The only number I heard coming out of Sunday's matchup in Minneapolis was 85.0%. For those unaware, that's how often defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzed Daniel Jones. Just villainous work. However, I didn't hear much about the offense. Admittedly, I was bracing for a Justin Jefferson breakout after trading him away in the analyst league, but it never came. That's not to say things were all bad. 

We're four (full) games into the Kyler Murray Renaissance, and the reviews are not great. It doesn't help that J.J. McCarthy has performed well with the Giants. But none of Murray's base stats across the past few weeks are inspiring.

  • Passing Yards: 168 (Week 3), 247 (Week 4), 229 (Week 5), 150 (Week 7) 

  • Passing TDs: 1, 0, 1, 1

  • Rushing Attempts: 2, 3, 7, 3

No games over 250 yards. No multi-TD outings. Plus, Murray's skedaddling has had its ups and downs. It doesn't matter that his passing success rate went from the basement in Week 3 (18.8%) to league average over his past two (50.0% and 40.6%). He's at least tried to balance out his 12 sacks with seven first downs with his legs. Regardless, the feedback is the same: We want more.

Or, let's start simple: We want better for Justin Jefferson.

Of course, the main caveat is that the duo has had only two full games with each other. So Jefferson's catchable target rate oscillating from 86% to 67% isn't surprising. Plus, with an intermediate aDOT (11.2 air yards) and a steady diet of in-breaking routes (50% target rate on interior routes), we should expect to see his yards and efficiency pick up with more reps. Jefferson is the most-productive receiver in the red zone, too. The big games just haven't come yet.

But in the meantime, there's one other pass-catcher worth starting.

  • Route Rate: 76% (Weeks 1-4), 67% (Week 7)

  • Target Share: 26%, 22%

  • Target per Route Run: 25%, 25%

T.J. Hockenson returned from a concussion to displace Jordan Addison and serve as the WR2. He led the crew in targets when the Vikings got into scoring position. For those concerned about Murray's accuracy, Hockenson has just one game with a catchable target under 75%. Three of the Vikings' next five games will be against defenses inside the top 12 in PPG allowed to TEs. If you were able to scoop up Hockenson during the bye, he should be in your TE1 spot moving forward, unless you've got a better option. But I've got one more, too.

  • Week 3: -1.6% (PROE on All Downs), -4.1% (PROE on Early Downs)

  • Week 4: -0.1%, -2.8%

  • Week 5: +1.8%, -2.4%

  • Week 7: +0.6%, +0.5%

Minnesota has primarily leaned on its running game with Murray under center. The only time that's changed is in the red zone (+9.1%). Either way, that works in Jordan Mason's favor. In his first game back from injury, he had 12 opportunities to eight for Aaron Jones Sr. before an MCL injury kept Jones on the sideline. Mason did run a route on 37% of Murray's dropbacks, giving him rushing and receiving utility, along with a path to an RB1 workload should Jones miss time. The Vikings are in the trade market for another rusher with a deep playoff run in mind. But until we see something happen, Mason should be on our target list.

Mahomes Alone

To be fair, Kansas City won't have to face an elite defense like the Seahawks' every week. No QB to face them has cracked 190 yards. All but two have thrown at least one interception. Regardless, it looked like facing "The Dark Side" hit Patrick Mahomes the hardest.

Before you label me a hater because of my Bengals bias, let me add the proper context. Tyquan Thornton is on IR. Rashee Rice is still working his way back. Travis Kelce is 37 years old. There's nothing about the Chiefs' receiving corps that should've scared Seattle other than the QB. Besides, Kenneth Walker III was the engine of the offense anyway. But with the gift of hindsight, his production was masking some of the issues that came up on Sunday night.

  • Week 3: 73 (Walker All-Purpose Yards), 0.13 (Team EPA per Play)

  • Week 4: 179, 0.14

  • Week 6: 139, 0.05

  • Week 7: 57, -0.10

Kansas City's last four opponents have been the Dolphins, Raiders, Chargers and Seahawks. That's a combined W-L record of 8-18. And yet, Mahomes hasn't completed a TD pass since Week 4. Coming out of the bye, I can understand why, after looking at the WR rotation.

  • Xavier Worthy: 91.2% (Route Rate), 21.3% (Target Share), 1.35 (YPRR)

  • Jalen Royals: 75.0%, 9.8%, 0.47

  • Andrew Armstrong: 64.7%, 6.6%, 0.36

Down their two best WRs, the Chiefs still ran out of 11 personnel on 52.9% of their passing plays. They didn't use any extra linemen to shore up the protection. The TEs only blocked on four snaps. Accordingly, Mahomes was under duress on 52.8% of his dropbacks. Coupled with near-perfect coverage, the frustration from Mahomes and fantasy managers is understandable. There should be more to this offense than expecting a 165-lb WR who ran a 4.21 two-and-a-half years ago to become a WR1.

But if there's anyone I'd stash on my bench, it'd be Cyrus Allen.

After all the preseason hype, the Day 3 pick has only 14 routes to his name after the bye. But when he's on the field, Mahomes is looking for him. Allen's 45 yards on four targets is second among the WRs. And as the clip shows, Allen is running through traffic to keep the offense on schedule. He's primarily operated from the slot (81.8% snap rate from the interior), so his overlap with Rice would be a concern. But if Rice's hamstring injury keeps him out longer, I'd expect Allen's playing time and workload to expand. 

Two Dawgs, One Bone 

After talking about the Chiefs' issues, it's ironic that Cleveland is experiencing the inverse problem. Because we know who to start. The problem is when. Matt Harmon and Josh Norris were pondering the same question heading into the week.

Salute to the Browns' front office. We may be only two months into the season, but their pair of young WRs are the type you can build an offense around. And that's not just because KC Concepcion lit up the Titans. 

Both Concepcion and Denzel Boston have earned over 20% of the team's targets in four straight games. It'd be five for Concepcion, but he got knocked out of Week 5 early. Since Week 4, the two account for 67% of Deshaun Watson's air yards and 42% of his first downs. And due to their differing strengths, they're the ideal complement to each other.

Boston has been Watson's man downfield. Against the Steelers, Boston averaged 22.3 air yards per target. Half of his catches generated 15 or more yards. But the former Huskie has more than size and long speed to his game. Defenders are giving Boston 5.3 yards of cushion at the LOS. For reference, that's the same as Nico Collins and Mike Evans. Similar to them, HC Todd Monken is getting Watson to connect with Boston on slants and hitches. Essentially, with over half of his targets on throws of 10 air yards or fewer, he's not just a deep threat. Just like his teammate isn't just a short-area merchant. 

Concepcion is turning into Watson's "rhythm" guy. The receiver that keeps him on schedule. Because if he lets a pass go at or before his normal time to throw (2.81 seconds), nobody has more yards or first downs than Concepcion. If Watson has a clean pocket, the Texas A&M product has 36 targets. Boston is next at 27. And since Concepcion's primary alignment is on the interior, like the highlight above shows, Monken's found all sorts of ways to get him the ball. Of the 25 receivers with 25 or more receptions, Concepcion ranks sixth in YAC per catch. But for both Boston and Concepcion, none of their abilities matter when we can't get consistent play out of their QB.

  • Week 4 vs PIT: +6.4% (PROE), +3.8% (CPOE) 

  • Week 5 at NYJ: -0.8%, -15.6% 

  • Week 6 vs BAL: -4.1%, -0.8%

  • Week 7 at TEN: -3.3%, +6.7%

As I mentioned earlier, Concepcion exited Week 5 early, so Watson's 45.5% completion rate is understandable. But he was at 53.3% against the Panthers with both rookies in tow. Plus, after favoring the pass throughout the first month, the Browns have turned to their rushing attack. The weekly variance, in passing quality and quantity, makes both receivers tough to trust. But let's think this through.

Concepcion has more targets on a per-route basis (24.3% vs 17.0%). And, on the season, his catchable target rate sits almost 20 percentage points higher than Boston's (76% vs 57%). In three-WR leagues, Concepcion is as solid of a third starter as they come. But Boston profiles as a prototypical FLEX with a usable floor and high ceiling. But in favorable matchups in the future (at Saints in Week 9), we should expect to see more out of both.

One If By Land, Too Many By Air

On the bright side, the Patriots playing through a more favorable stretch of the schedule has brought out the best in Drake Maye. He's finished as the QB4 or better all October. The problem? Well, see if you can count how many different receivers he used last Thursday.

I counted four different pass-catchers on Maye's first five throws. Over the course of the night, six Patriots earned two or more targets. A week after A.J. Brown's return, and the lone attempt at condensing the passing game around a single player, we see the opportunities spread out. And it wasn't just who was getting the ball; it was who was on the field.

  • Week 6: 81.3% (11-personnel snap rate), 70.0% (WR Target Rate)

  • Week 7: 63.6%, 40.0%

The underlying story for New England on a short week was its injuries along the offensive line. New York had Maye under fire on 42.9% of his dropbacks (the third-highest rate of the season), and it had multiple linemen injured. To help, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels deployed more multi-TE sets with Hunter Henry and Eli Raridon as blockers. Henry alone had 32 pass-blocking snaps entering TNF. He acted in the same capacity on 11 snaps against the Bears. Accordingly, Maye had fewer total pressures despite Chicago blitzing him more than the Jets. But with seemingly every position and player earning a target, it's hard to be sure who we can start. There is one option, though.

To be clear, there's still a path for Brown to reclaim the throne. While the other WRs have been part of the rotation, the former Eagle is the only WR with a 90+% route rate in Weeks 6 and 7. Like the Murray-Jefferson duo, Brown and Maye have only two complete games together now. As the targets continue, the rapport will grow.

But as that connection gets stronger, Maye already has one with Henry.

All of the non-Brown WRs either saw their routes tick down or usage stay in the basement. Henry got more cardio and more targets despite having to block on double-digit snaps. The need to shore up Maye's protection didn't impact the veteran TE like the other pass-catchers. And as New England gears up for formidable fronts before its bye (Packers, Lions), Henry should carry the most trust, other than Brown, until everyone else gets healthy.

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