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Fantasy football matchup ranks: Upgrade Ollie Gordon II, downgrade Jordan Love
Jordan Love faces the top-ranked Vikings defense in Week 10. David Butler II-Imagn Images

Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.

Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?

The matchup rankings provide a schedule independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions. Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the past five weeks.

"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.

Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want the most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.

Quarterbacks

Matchups highlight: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Tennessee Titans). He hasn't been needed to do a whole lot in blowout victories the past two weeks, averaging 16.5 fantasy points in games his Jaguars won by 35 and 23 points. The worry here is that the game script might fall along similar lines, what with the Jaguars favored by 10.5 points. Nevertheless, this is too good a matchup to ignore, for a quarterback whose team is rolling recently and who was one of the position's best during the second half of 2025. The Titans surrendered 18.22 and 39.48 fantasy points to Deshaun Watson and Joe Burrow in their prior two games. Lawrence also scored 20-plus points in both meetings with the Titans in 2025, and two of his four career 30-plus-point games have come against the division rival.

Matchup to avoid: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (versus Minnesota Vikings). He's a tough player to sit, as the QB3 in fantasy scoring over the past five weeks, not to mention the only quarterback all season to exceed 13 fantasy points against the Vikings (19.48, in Week 1). Consider him the exception rather than the rule with this matchup, however, being that Caleb Williams (7.72, Week 2), Jared Goff (9.04, Week 8) and Josh Allen (12.86, Week 9) were all held well beneath their seasonal averages by the Vikings. The Vikings have limited quarterbacks on the whole to the fewest fantasy points per game (8.4) and points per passing attempt (0.26).

Quarterback Matchup Rankings

"DEF to avoid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 10 opponent; "Rk": Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.

DEF to
avoid
Opp. Rk Adj.
FPA
  DEF to
exploit
Opp. Rk Adj.
FPA
@GB

1

-11.4   JAX

32

5.6
@LV

2

-7.5   PIT

31

5.5
MIN

3

-6.4   BYE

30

4.8
BYE

4

-6.3   CAR

29

4.3
@NYJ

5

-4.8   LAR

28

4.3
HOU

6

-4.2   SEA

27

4.2
@TEN

7

-3.8   WSH

26

4.2
@ARI

8

-2.1   BUF

25

3.8
@BAL

9

-1.6   @DET

24

3.4
@NYG

10

-1.5   SF

23

2.0
@ATL

11

-1.4   @CLE

22

1.5
@CIN

12

-1.3   NE

21

1.2
@DAL

13

-0.9   BYE

20

1.1
KC

14

-0.7   MIA

19

1.0
LAC

15

-0.6   BYE

18

0.4
@IND

16

-0.5   @NO

17

-0.5

Running backs

Matchups highlight: Ollie Gordon II, Miami Dolphins (at Indianapolis Colts). He's doing a plenty serviceable job filling in for the injured De'Von Achane, as in five games since taking over the starting role, Gordon has averaged 12.9 fantasy points, 20th among running backs. Gordon's usage metrics are even better, as he's eighth in snap rate (74%) and goal-to-go carries (nine) and 10th in rushing share (64%). A matchup against the rebuilding Colts, one of the worst run defenses thus far, could vault him into the upper tier of fantasy RB2s. The Colts surrendered 29.9 fantasy points to Bhayshul Tuten in Week 8, and 22.4 to Javonte Williams in Week 9, both of which came following the trade of DT DeForest Buckner to the San Francisco 49ers.

Matchup to avoid: Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders (versus Seahawks). His usage didn't rebound following his Week 8 "benching," as while Jeanty played 66% of the offensive snaps last week, he had the same number of carries (six) as Mike Washington Jr., but this time failed to impress in the receiving game (five catches, minus-5 yards). Now Jeanty draws as his matchup the Seahawks, who have allowed only two running backs to exceed 15 fantasy points all season, Christian McCaffrey (17.3, in Week 5) and D'Andre Swift (27.9, Week 8).

Running Back Matchup Rankings

"DEF to avoid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 10 opponent; "Rk": Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.

DEF to
avoid
Opp. Rk Adj.
FPA
  DEF to
exploit
Opp. Rk Adj.
FPA
BYE

1

-10.0   SF

32

8.8
@LV

2

-6.6   KC

31

7.7
@CIN

3

-6.3   @NO

30

6.1
@DAL

4

-5.0   @CLE

29

5.7
BYE

5

-3.1   MIA

28

5.7
@BAL

6

-3.1   SEA

27

5.2
@DET

7

-2.8   HOU

26

3.9
NE

8

-2.7   JAX

25

3.8
LAC

9

-2.3   CAR

24

3.1
@TEN

10

-1.5   PIT

23

1.3
MIN

11

-1.2   LAR

22

1.1
@ATL

12

-1.1   @ARI

21

1.0
WSH

13

-1.0   BYE

20

0.8
BYE

14

-0.9   BUF

19

0.8
@IND

15

-0.9   @NYJ

18

0.5
@GB

16

-0.5   @NYG

17

0.1

Wide receivers

Matchups highlight: Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers (at Saints). His fantasy managers have surely been frustrated to see Bryce Young looking in his tight ends' direction a good deal in some games so far this season, but on the whole, McMillan's usage sets off many green lights. He's ninth among wide receivers in target share (28%) and tied for eighth with seven end-zone targets, and on three occasions he has exceeded 15 fantasy points (Weeks 2, 4 and 9). McMillan should put forth one of his bigger scores this week, against a Saints secondary that has afforded a league-leading 2.14 fantasy points per target to opposing WR1s.

Matchup to avoid: Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (versus Kansas City Chiefs). Between the occasionally suboptimal matchup and the struggles of his quarterbacks, London has had a frustrating 2026. He managed only 1.8 fantasy points on six targets in his worst matchup of the year, in Week 8 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he averaged 7.2 points and five targets in Cooper Rush's two season-opening starts. London's Week 10 brings the risk of both a poor matchup and unfavorable game script. The opposing Chiefs have allowed only one wide receiver score greater than 15 points all season, and have held the position to the fewest fantasy points per target (1.34). They're also favored by 3.5 as the visiting team.

Wide Receiver Matchup Rankings

"DEF to avoid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 10 opponent; "Rk": Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.

DEF to
avoid
Opp. Rk Adj.
FPA
  DEF to
exploit
Opp. Rk Adj.
FPA
@GB

1

-11.5   JAX

32

11.1
LAR

2

-9.9   @DET

31

9.0
@IND

3

-8.6   @BAL

30

6.7
WSH

4

-8.6   SEA

29

6.7
MIA

5

-7.2   CAR

28

6.3
HOU

6

-7.1   PIT

27

5.6
@LV

7

-4.8   @CLE

26

4.2
@ATL

8

-3.9   SF

25

3.4
NE

9

-3.6   BYE

24

2.9
@DAL

10

-3.3   @NO

23

2.8
KC

11

-3.1   MIN

22

0.7
BYE

12

-2.6   @CIN

21

0.7
@TEN

13

-2.3   BUF

20

0.3
@NYG

14

-2.1   BYE

19

0.2
LAC

15

-1.7   @NYJ

18

0.2
@ARI

16

-1.5   BYE

17

-0.3

Tight ends

Matchups highlight: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (at Detroit Lions). Though the emergence of rookie Eli Raridon has cut into Henry's targets, the veteran shapes up as a Week 10 sleeper due to the matchup. The Lions have seen nine different tight ends score more than 13 fantasy points against them this season, and for the season they've afforded the position the most points per game (25.1), points per target (2.33) and Adjusted FPA (+9.5). Considering Patriots-Lions entered the week with the second-highest over/under (51.5), there should be enough passing volume to vault Henry close to, if not into, the top 10 in scoring at the position.

Matchup to avoid: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings (at Packers). The Vikings' quarterback issues set them back in a big way in Week 9. Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer led them to only 127 net passing yards, and Hockenson finished with only 7.3 fantasy points despite seven targets. The acquisition of Kirk Cousins should improve the team in that regard, but it's unclear whether he'll be up to speed in time to start this game. Even if he is, the Packers have been one of the toughest defenses against tight ends. They've afforded the position the fewest fantasy points per target (1.50).

Tight End Matchup Rankings

"DEF to avoid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 10 opponent; "Rk": Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.

DEF to
avoid
Opp. Rk Adj.
FPA
  DEF to
exploit
Opp. Rk Adj.
FPA
MIN

1

-5.4   NE

32

7.0
@LV

2

-4.9   BYE

31

5.7
@BAL

3

-4.9   @DAL

30

4.8
@CLE

4

-3.3   @NYG

29

4.7
@GB

5

-3.2   BYE

28

4.5
WSH

6

-3.0   PIT

27

4.2
@ARI

7

-3.0   @CIN

26

4.0
BYE

8

-2.8   LAR

25

2.4
@NYJ

9

-2.2   MIA

24

2.3
KC

10

-2.2   BUF

23

2.2
BYE -1.9   @IND 2.0
SF -1.6   LAC 2.0
@TEN -1.3   SEA 1.9
CAR -0.9   @NO 1.2
@DET -0.2   @ATL 0.7
HOU -0.1   JAX 0.6

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