Rangers booked their place in December’s League Cup final with a 1-0 win over Aberdeen at Hampden on Saturday, 31 October, but Sunday brought even bigger news for the Ibrox side’s title hopes.

Celtic suffered a dramatic stumble in the Scottish Premiership on Sunday, 1 November, slumping to a shock 2-0 defeat against Falkirk away from home. First-half strikes from Ethan Ross and Scott Tanser condemned the Hoops to a damaging loss, blowing the title race wide open.

Rangers 44% favourites to win Scottish Premiership ahead of Celtic

According to the latest FMD simulations, Rangers’ probability of winning the 1st-place title shot up by +12%, taking their overall title chances to 44%. Conversely, Celtic’s defeat cost them a heavy -14% drop in their 1st-place odds, bringing their title probability down to 50%.

Therefore, Rangers have seen their chances of winning the league this season shoot up significantly without even playing in the division this weekend.

While Celtic still sit top of the table on 28 points from 12 matches, Rangers reside just four points behind on 24 points with a critical game in hand. Should Derek McInnes‘ side win that game in hand, the gap at the summit will be trimmed to a single point.

According to FMD projections, Celtic were 75% favourites to win the league after three games. However, recent weeks have seen Rangers bridge the gap with Martin O’Neill’s side, courtesy of a nine-game unbeaten run in the Scottish Premiership.

The statistical jump highlights just how sensitive the title race outcome has become heading into November. With Rangers riding high from securing their spot in the season’s first cup final and Celtic showing vulnerability on the road, the momentum in Scotland’s top flight has palpably shifted toward Ibrox.

If Rangers capitalised on their game in hand, the supercomputer projections indicate the title race would effectively become a dead-heat toss-up between the two Glasgow giants.