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Tennessee enters the matchup at 6-2, while Kentucky brings a 7-1 record into Knoxville. Both teams have plenty at stake, and the matchup could come down to how well the Vols execute in several key areas.
Tennessee has the offensive weapons to compete with Kentucky, but there are also questions the Vols must answer. Their rushing attack has been a strength all season, while the passing game has been less consistent. Defensively, Tennessee will need to remain disciplined against a Kentucky offense with multiple ways to attack. Here are three factors that could make or break Tennessee's chances against Kentucky.
Good for Tennessee
If Tennessee runs the football the way it has for most of the season, the Vols will put themselves in a good position to win. DeSean Bishop has been one of Tennessee's most productive offensive weapons. The Vols average 213 rushing yards per game, giving them a reliable foundation to build their offense around.
A strong performance from Bishop and the offensive line would take pressure off the passing game. Tennessee wouldn't need George MacIntyre to carry the offense. Instead, the Vols could rely on the ground game to control the clock, create manageable third-down situations, and give the passing attack opportunities to make a few important plays. That's been the recipe all season.
Bad for Tennessee
Kentucky's recent improvement against the run is something to pay attention to. The Wildcats have allowed an average of just 61.7 rushing yards per game over their last three contests. If that version of Kentucky's defense shows up in Knoxville, Tennessee could have trouble establishing its biggest offensive strength. Although I don't see that happening.
That would put more pressure on a passing game that has struggled to find consistency this season. It could also expose concerns with Tennessee's pass protection. The offensive line has had questionable moments in that area, and putting MacIntyre in repeated third-and-long situations is not an ideal formula against Kentucky. The Vols need to find a way to keep the running game productive. It could be one of the biggest factors in determining how successful the offense is on Saturday.
Good for Tennessee
Tennessee's secondary has an opportunity to make a difference if it follows the message defensive backs coach and co-defensive coordinator Anthony Poindexter has emphasized this week. Coach Poindexter recently discussed the importance of discipline and trusting the defensive scheme. The Vols cannot afford to abandon their assignments while trying to create a big play. If Tennessee communicates well and keeps Kentucky's receivers in front of the defense, it can make life difficult for the Wildcats. The Vols also need to take advantage of opportunities to pressure quarterback Kenny Minchey. If Xavier Gilliam and the defensive line play like they have all season. That will benefit the secondary and put more pressure on Kentucky in the passing game.
Bad for Tennessee
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If the Vols become too aggressive or lose discipline in coverage, Kentucky has the personnel to take advantage. Coach Poindexter's message about not hunting for plays is especially important. Tennessee cannot become so focused on creating a turnover that defenders abandon their responsibilities. Kentucky can use different personnel groupings to create mismatches, so the Vols must account for everyone on the field. An attempt to make a hero play, or a breakdown in communication, could give the Wildcats an opportunity to make a big play. Tennessee needs to trust the Jim Knowles system, stay within the defensive structure, and allow opportunities to develop rather than forcing them.
Good for Tennessee
The Vols have enough talent to compete with Kentucky, but they need to play a clean game. That means protecting the football, avoiding costly penalties, executing on fourth down, and finishing drives. Tennessee cannot afford to give Kentucky extra possessions or waste opportunities when it gets into scoring position.
If the Vols take care of the football and execute in critical situations, they can put themselves in position to win a close SEC matchup.
Bad for Tennessee
The loss to South Carolina is a reminder of how costly mistakes can be in a close conference game. Tennessee's failed fourth-and-one attempt late in the fourth quarter was particularly damaging. It was an opportunity to put the game away, but the Vols faltered at a critical moment. Those types of mistakes can change the outcome against a quality opponent. Tennessee cannot afford to give away possessions, miss opportunities, or make costly decisions in key situations. Kentucky has put together a strong season, and the Vols will need to make the Wildcats earn everything. A few avoidable mistakes could be the difference between an energetic home victory and another frustrating result.
The formula for Tennessee starts with establishing the run and making Kentucky defend the entire field. Bishop and the offensive line must find ways to produce against a defense that has been much stronger against opposing rushing attacks recently. MacIntyre and the receivers then need to capitalize when Kentucky adjusts to stop the run. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee must remain disciplined against a Kentucky offense that can attack through multiple personnel groupings. Perhaps most importantly, the Vols need to avoid the mistakes that have cost them opportunities in previous games.
Tennessee has the talent and home-field advantage to compete with Kentucky. But winning this matchup will require execution on both sides of the ball. If the Vols establish their rushing attack, make timely plays through the air, and stay disciplined defensively, they will give themselves a strong chance to come away with a big win at Neyland Stadium.
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