Virginia Tech hasn’t won 10 games in a season since 2016. Four more wins would get it there before bowl season.

Here’s the list: a Friday night trip to No. 19 SMU on Nov. 6, Stanford at Lane Stadium on Nov. 14, a visit to No. 1 Miami on Nov. 21 and Virginia back in Blacksburg on Nov. 28.

Coach James Franklin’s first team is 6–2, 3–2 in the ACC and already bowl-eligible, doubling last season’s win total with a month to play. It beat Clemson 20–16 on Oct. 24, its first win over the Tigers since 2007, on Ethan Grunkemeyer’s 5-yard touchdown pass to tight end Luke Reynolds.

“Bye week after a win, there’s nothing better,” Franklin said afterward.

So how real is 10–2? Here’s the case both ways.

Three reasons for optimism

The calendar gives Virginia Tech an edge in Dallas

When the Hokies kick off at SMU, they’ll have had 13 days since the final snap at Clemson. SMU will have had six. The Mustangs play at Syracuse on Saturday, Oct. 31, then turn around for a Friday night home game on ESPN.

This roster needs time. Grunkemeyer has been sacked 11 times in the last two games, and the staff has trimmed a rep or two from his practice load this week.

“He hates when I take him out of anything ever,” quarterbacks coach Danny O’Brien said.

Franklin has also said he hopes to get some offensive linemen back during the break.

Two of the four come at home, against teams heading the wrong way

Stanford is 4–4, but the Cardinal are 0–3 on the road and have been outscored by 44.3 points per game away from home. They lost 35–7 at Duke, 57–3 at Wake Forest, and 58–7 at Notre Dame, for 17 points combined. Coach Tavita Pritchard said after beating NC State that he couldn’t explain the split.

Virginia is in worse shape. The Cavaliers are 4–4 after a 19–16 home loss to Duke on Oct. 23, their third loss in four games. Quarterback Beau Pribula threw 13 touchdown passes in the first six games and none in the last two, and Virginia still needs two more wins just to reach a bowl.

Virginia did beat the Hokies 27–7 last season. That was a different Virginia Tech team, and that game was in Charlottesville.

Winning both home games and winning out comes down to two road games. That’s still hard. It’s not four coin flips.

Grunkemeyer doesn’t give games away

Through eight games, Grunkemeyer has thrown for 2,140 yards and 17 touchdowns with two interceptions. Clemson sacked him six times, and he still didn’t turn it over.

Then he won the game. Trailing 16–13, Grunkemeyer led an 11-play, 69-yard drive for the go-ahead score. The defense, which finished with 13 tackles for loss, ended it with a sack on Clemson’s fourth-down snap.

That travels. The Hokies are 3–1 away from Lane Stadium, with wins at Maryland, Boston College and Clemson. A quarterback who doesn’t hand over extra possessions is the first requirement for beating ranked teams on the road.

Three reasons for pessimism

SMU and Miami are a different level

SMU is 6–1, 4–1 in the ACC and coming off a 59–20 win over Cal. The Mustangs are 11–0 at home in ACC games since joining the league in 2024 and 24–2 in their last 26 home games, averaging 44 points in those games. Quarterback Kevin Jennings broke the program’s career record for touchdown passes against Cal.

Miami is 7–0 and No. 1 in the AP poll with 59 first-place votes.

The common-opponent math isn’t kind. Virginia Tech beat Clemson by four and lost to Pitt by two. Miami beat Clemson 41–13 on the road and beat Pitt 52–23, a combined 57-point margin. Transitive scores lie all the time, and Miami played Clemson three weeks before the Hokies did. The gap is still hard to ignore.

The Hokies are also chasing their first regular-season win over a ranked opponent since 2021. Winning out means getting two in 15 days, both on the road. Their last trip to Miami Gardens, in 2024, ended with a last-play touchdown catch overturned on replay in a 38–34 loss.

The offensive line is running on fumes

Clemson exposed the lack of continuity on the line. Virginia Tech ran for 37 times for 70 yards, gave up six sacks, and finished with 234 total yards, its lowest of the season. The Hokies averaged 3.3 yards per play.

It was the third straight game with at least three sacks allowed, and injuries are the main reason. A true freshman, Benjamin Eziuka, was in the starting five in Death Valley.

A bye week helps. It doesn’t build an offensive line.

Virginia Tech hasn’t closed against good teams

Both losses came after halftime leads. The Hokies led Pitt 24–21 at the break and lost 35–33, then led at Cal 14–10 and lost 25–20. Georgia Tech outscored them 21–10 after halftime in a game they won. At Clemson, the Tigers outgained Virginia Tech 146–13 in the third quarter.

In five ACC games, the Hokies have scored 10 third-quarter points. Franklin has said the Hokies have to “be better in the third quarter.”

That flaw costs less against Stanford or Virginia. SMU scored touchdowns on its first six drives after halftime against Cal. Against that offense, a bad third quarter ends the game.

The verdict

Winning out is a long shot, but it isn’t a fantasy.

Win at SMU, and the Nov. 21 trip to Miami becomes the biggest game of Franklin’s first season, with 10 wins in reach. Lose, and the question answers itself.

The Hokies have 13 days to find a third quarter. SMU has six to get ready for them.